It was hard not to be
fixated on the drama
that unfolded
in the House of Representatives
this week,
where the Republican Party
had a nervous breakdown
in full public view.
This crisis was entirely of the
party's own making.
For decades,
it has whipped its base
into a righteous fury
by promising radical policies
that offer emotional satisfaction
to their hard line
constituents,
from rolling back
Medicare and Social Security
to defaulting on the national debt
to eliminating whole government agencies.
But because these policies
are totally unworkable,
they never happen.
The lesson that the base has internalized
is that it
was constantly being betrayed
by cowardly moderates.
The solution now is to maintain
a permanent vise
grip on the speaker,
ensuring that he will always do
what the hard liners want.
This is, as many have noted, a recipe
for permanent blackmail and
constant chaos.
The Republican
Party's troubles are severe.
Newt Gingrich told Axios
that the party
is in its worst shape
in almost six decades.
But it is not alone.
In many countries around the world.
Populists are flailing.
Look at Britain, where Brexit, perhaps
the ultimate 21st century populist cause,
has caused havoc
within the Conservative Party,
which used to be described
as the world's oldest
and most successful political party.
Britain has had
five prime ministers
in the six years since 2016.
The prior
five prime ministers
spend more than 30 years
The self-defeating decision to exit
its largest market,
the European Union,
continues to depress the country's
economic prospects
and Britain
remains the weakest of the G7 economies
in the G20.
Only Russia is projected to do worse than
Britain in the near future.
The story is similar in South America,
even though that continent
has been swept up in populism
from both the right and the left.
Neither version is doing very well
in Brazil.
Jair Bolsonaro
lost his bid for reelection,
but the winner,
former President
Lula, will also find it hard to implement
some of his more radical promises
in Chile.
Left wing populist coalesced
around a plan
to completely redo
the country's constitution,
putting forward a new one
that even many Left-Of-Center politicians
regarded as extreme and unworkable.
In the ensuing referendum,
86% of Chileans turned out
rejecting the new constitution
by a whopping 62%.
On the other side of the globe
in Australia,
right wing politicians
had embraced Trump's
style policies and rhetoric.
Under Prime Minister Scott Morrison,
they spoke a language
that mirrored
the grievance politics of older
white voters
and scared the country
about the dangers of immigration, crime
and so-called
African gangs
that were supposedly marauding
through Victoria.
But he bungled the COVID
pandemic and had little success
with the economy.
In the recent elections,
Australia's conservatives suffered
their worst loss ever
and the even more extreme
united Australia
and One Nation parties
did poorly as well.
The new Labor Prime
Minister currently enjoys
an extraordinarily high approval rating
Why is this happening?
Well, populism thrives
as an opposition movement.
It denounces the establishment,
encourages fears
and conspiracy theories
about nefarious ruling elites
and promises
emotional responses
rather than actual programs.
For example, build a wall.
Pandemic nation. Stop trade.
But once in government,
the shallowness of these policy
proposals is exposed,
and leaders can't blame others as easily.
Meanwhile,
if non populist forces are sensible
and actually get things done,
they defang some of the populist right.
Look at America,
where Joe Biden's
moderate style,
serious demeanor
and practical policymaking
have given him large
legislative accomplishments
without triggering a massive
electoral backlash.
Now he benefits
by being an old white man.
Had Barack Obama
enacted the same policies as Joe Biden?
I have a feeling
we would hear much more talk
of his dangerous socialism
and un-American policies,
complete with racial innuendos.
The poster child
for populism has always been Argentina.
Juan Peron
and his even more charismatic wife, Eva,
built a powerful mass movement
that attacked the old elites
and promised to become
the voice of the people.
In fact,
they destroyed Argentina's economy.
What had once been
one of the world's
wealthiest countries in the 19 tens
was only a few decades later,
a basket case economy.
Ever since
Argentine populists
have promised voters, the moon
ran up staggering debts
and then routinely defaulted.
But now things have soured for them,
prompting the Economist to observe
that Argentina's
populist movement is at its lowest ebb.
Former President Eduardo Holiday
told the magazine
terrorism is obviously the main culprit
for the situation.
Of Argentina,
saying today we are in our worst moment.
These trends are not permanent.
The world's complicated problems
always allow for
someone who proposes answers
that are simple, seductive and wrong.
But let us hope that 2023 will see
populism exposed for the sham that it is.