>>> 24 PAST THE HOUR, DATA
ANALYST AND VETERAN OF THE OBAMA
PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN DAVID SHOR
MADE HEADLINES WITH HIS AUTOPSY
OF THE 2020 ELECTION IN WHICH HE
DETAILED WHY PRESIDENT TRUMP NOT
ONLY EXCEEDED POLLING
EXPECTATIONS ONCE AGAIN BUT HOW
THE TRUMP ERA AS A WHOLE WAS A
GREAT THING FOR THE GOP.
HE ALSO PUT FORTH THAT DEMOCRATS
MAY HAVE TAKEN THINGS TOO FAR
WITH IDEALOGICALLY CHARGED
ISSUES, LIKE THE DEFUND THE
POLICE AND THAT AS COLLEGE
EDUCATED WHITE LIBERALS
CONTINUESED TO MAKE UP A LARGER
SHARE OF DEMOCRATS, THEY WILL
KEEP PUSHING THEIR PARTY FURTHER
TO THE LEFT AND END UP
ALIENATING NON-WHITE
CONSERVATIVE DEMOCRATS.
THAT’S A LOT.
DAVID JOINS US NOW TO TALK ABOUT
IT ALL.
DAVID, WE’LL READ MORE OF WHAT
YOU TOLD NEW YORK MAGAZINE,
QUOTE, OVER THE LAST FOUR YEARS
WHITE LIBERALS HAVE BECOME A
LARGER AND LARGER SHARE OF THE
DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
AND THAT WHITE LIBERALS ARE TO
THE LEFT OF HISPANIC DEMOCRATS,
BUT ALSO OF BLACK DEMOCRATS ON
DEFUNDING THE POLICE AND THOSE
IDEOLOGICAL QUESTIONS ABOUT THE
SOURCE OF RACIAL INEQUITY.
>> SO DAVID, WHAT’S SO
FASCINATING ABOUT YOUR AUTOPSY
AND WHAT YOU TOLD NEW YORK
MAGAZINE IS IT’S WHAT AL
FRANKEN -- NOT AL FRANKEN --
WHAT AL SHARPTON HAS BEEN SAYING
ON THIS SHOW FOR A COUPLE YEARS.
HE TALKED ABOUT LATTE LIBERALS
AND THEY DON’T REALLY UNDERSTAND
BLACK VOTERS.
THEY’RE TRYING TO UNDERSTAND
BLACK VOTERS BETTER.
BUT IT’S ALSO WHA I HEARD FROM
A LOT OF REPUBLICAN STRATEGISTS,
I WAS TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
HAPPENED IN FLORIDA.
I WAS SHOCK THERE WAS SUCH A
WIDESPREAD.
THE VERY THINGS YOU TALK ABOUT
IN AUTOPSY THEIR NUMBERS WERE
SHOWING THEM ALL ALONG AND THEY
JUST PLAYED ON THAT OVER AND
OVER AGAIN.
AND THEY THINK THAT’S WHY THEY
WON SO BIG IN FLORIDA.
>> YEAH.
NO, ALL OF THAT IS ABSOLUTELY
TRUE.
YOU KNOW N TALKING ABOUT FLORIDA
SPECIFICALLY, THE NUMBERS ARE
ABSOLUTELY CRAZY.
YOU KNOW, WE FELL SOMETHING LIKE
14% AMONG HISPANIC VOTERS IN
FLORIDA.
THAT’S NOT MARGIN.
THAT’S PERCENT.
THAT MEANS WE FELL 28% IN
MARGIN.
THERE ARE PARTS OF FLORIDA WHERE
HILLARY CLINTON WON BY 40 POINTS
WHERE DONALD TRUMP WON BY 10.
SO I THINK THE MAGNITUDE OF
THESE CHANGES REALLY SUGGEST
THAT THE POWER -- THAT WE HAVE
TO DO SOMETHING.
>> AND DAVID, WHAT SHOULD BE
FRIGHTENING FOR DEMOCRATS IS THE
FACT THAT A LOT OF US RIGHT
AFTERWARDS SAID, WELL, I SAID
THIS.
IT MUST HAVE BEEN THE CUBAN
AMERICANS, IT MUST HAVE BEEN
THOSE COMING FROM VENEZUELA,
THOSECOLUMBIA, AND
I KNOW THE SOCIALISM ARGUMENT
PLAYED REALLY WELL IF YOU LOOK
AT THE INSIDE NUMBERS WITH A LOT
OF THOSE HISPANIC VOTERS, BUT AS
YOU AND OTHER PEOPLE HAVE
POINTED OUT, HISPANICS BROKE
AWAY FROM DEMOCRATS EVEN IN
STATES WHERE THERE WASN’T A LOT
OF ADVERTISING, WHETHER IT WAS
NEW YORK OR CALIFORNIA OR
MASSACHUSETTS.
>> YEAH.
ABSOLUTELY.
I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE WANTED
TO DISMISS THIS AS REGIONALLY
CONCENTRATED TREND, BUT IT
WAS -- IT’S PRETTY CLEAR THAT
BASICALLY EVERY PLACE WITH LARGE
HISPANIC POPULATIONS WHETHER
IT’S LOS ANGELES OR NEW YORK OR
NEW JERSEY OR RURAL
MASSACHUSETTS, THERE WERE REALLY
LARGE SWINGS.
AND I THINK THAT THAT POINTS TO
THIS NOT BEING A QUESTION OF
WHATSAPP GROUPS OR ADVERTISING
AND INSTEAD REALLY AN ISSUE THAT
MOST LATINO VOTERS IDENTIFY --
NOT MOST BUT A VERY LARGE
FRACTION OF LATINO VOTERS
IDENTIFY AS CONSERVATIVE,
HISTORICALLY DEMOCRATS WON LARGE
MARGINS AMONG THEM AND THAT’S
STARTING TO CHANGE.
THEY’RE STARTING TO VOTE MORE
LIKE WHITE CONSERVATIVES AND
THAT’S WHY WE SEE THIS BROAD
REGIONAL TREND.
>> CLAIRE McCASKILL IS WITH US
AND HAS A QUESTION FOR YOU.
CLAIRE?
>> DAVID, I WAS VERY ENAMORED BY
THIS AUTOPSY.
I FEEL THIS AUTOPSY WHERE I
LIVE.
AND I THINK IT’S REALLY
IMPORTANT THE HISPANIC DEMOCRAT
PART OF YOUR AUTOPSY, EVERYONE
NEEDS TO UNDERSTAND THAT THE
SOCIALISM THING REALLY, REALLY
HURT US WITH HISPANIC VOTERS.
CAN YOU TALK ABOUT THE WORD
SOCIALISM ALONG OBVIOUSLY WITH
THE LABELING OF DEFUND THE
POLICE AND HOW THAT IMPACTED OUR
LOSSES THAT WE WERE SURPRISED BY
IN HEAVILY HISPANIC AREAS.
>> SURE.
SO SINCE THE ELECTION, YOU KNOW,
WE SURVEYED THOUSANDS OF
HISPANICS AFTER THE ELECTION
JUST TO ASK THEM WHY THEY WERE
SWITCHING THEIR VOTES AND TRY TO
UNDERSTAND WHY.
AND WE ASKED BATTERY OF ISSUE
QUESTIONS, ATTITUDE, CRIME,
LOCKDOWN, CAME OUT STRONGLY,
ATTITUDES TOWARDS POLICE,
ATTITUDES TOWARDS SAFETY AND
CRIME WERE STRONGLY CORRELATED
WITH GOING FROM CLINTON TO TRUMP
IN 2020.
SOMETHING THAT’S VERY
INTERESTING AND SEEN IN A BUNCH
OF DIFFERENT SURVEYS HISPANIC
WOMEN TRENDED MORE TOWARD TRUMP
THAN HISPANIC MEN.
A LOT OF PEOPLE TALK ABOUT MA
CHEESE MOE, BUT THAT’S A REALLY
STRONG POLLING GENERALLY SHOWS
WOMEN ARE MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
CRIME, MORE CONCERNED ABOUT
POLICING AND THE FACT THAT WE
SEE THIS BIG SUBGROUP THAT I
THINK REALLY DOES STRONGLY
SUGGEST THAT DEFUND THE POLICE
HAD A STRONG IMPACT ON OUR
HISPANIC SUPPORT.
>> EDDIE GLAUDE.
>> HI, DAVID.
I’M REALLY FASCINATED BY THIS
AUTOPSY REPORT IN A NUMBER OF
WAYS.
I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN YOU
DISAGGREGATING THE NUMBERS WE
KNOW THERE’S A DIFFERENTIATED
CATEGORY AND FALL ALONG
DIFFERENT LINES TALKING ABOUT
CUBANS, PUERTO RICANS.
TALK A LITTLE MORE ABOUT
NON-CONSERVATIVE BLACK VOTER.
NON-HOW DID YOU PUT IT NON-WHITE
CONSERVATIVE BLACK VOTERS.
AND THIS DEFUND THE POLICE
SLOGAN BECAUSE THERE IS A SENSE
IN WHICH YOU TEND TO ASSOCIATE
IT WITH WHITE LATTE LIBERALS AS
AL AND JOE DESCRIBE THEM, BUT IT
ACTUALLY COMES OUT OF GRASS
ROOTS ORGANIZING.
I’M THINKING ABOUT CRITICAL
EXISTENCE, THE GRASS ROOTS LAW
PROJECT.
TALK A LITTLE MORE ABOUT HOW
THIS SLOGAN KIND OF IMPACTED
VOTER BEHAVIOR IN THE ELECTION.
>> YOU KNOW, I DEFINITELY DON’T
WANT TO SUGGEST IN ANY WAY THAT
DEFUND THE POLICE WAS CONCOCTED
BY WHITE PEOPLE.
OBVIOUSLY IT WAS A FUNCTION OF
ACTIVISTS ON THE GROUND.
BUT I THINK IT IS TRUE THAT THE
BROADER PROGRESSIVE ECOSYSTEM,
ORGANIZATIONS LIKE NEXTGEN OR
HAVE ENDED UP COOPTING A LOT OF
THESE SLOGANS AND TRYING TO
COOPT A LOT OF THE ENERGY ON THE