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>>> WELCOME BACK. OUR PRINT COURT IS HEADED FOR A
MAJOR CHANGE AS JUSTICE ANTHONY
KENNEDY RETIRES.
KENNEDY RETIRES. HE IS OFTEN CONSIDERED THE
SWING VOTE.
SWING VOTE. SEATTLE UNIVERSITY SCHOOL OF
LAW PROFESSOR JOINS ME NOW.
WELCOME.
WELCOME.
WELCOME. >> THANK YOU.
>> HOW ARE YOU?
>> I AM OKAY.
>> JUSTICE KENNEDY IS A
CONSERVATIVE.
CONSERVATIVE. HE HAS SIDED WITH THE MORE
LIBERAL JUSTICES ON SOME OF THE
THINGS THIS STATE CARES ABOUT,
INCLUDING MARRIAGE EQUALITY AND
OTHER ISSUES DOWN THE ROAD.
BA CA, I ALSO BELIEVE?
HE DID NOT.
THAT WAS JUSTICE ROBERTS.
>> I AM SLIGHTLY CONFUSED.
WHAT DOES HIS ABSENCE MEAN NOW
THAT WE ARE LIKELY TO GET A
NOMINATION FROM THIS
ADMINISTRATION AND HIS PLACE.
>> FOR THE LAST 30 OR 40 YEARS,
THE SUPREME COURT HAS BEEN
MILDLY CONSERVATIVE, IT HAS
BEEN MAGGIORE EARLY REPUBLICAN
APPOINTEES MY WHOLE LIFE.
BECAUSE JUSTICE KENNEDY AND
JUSTICE O'CONNOR, IT HAS BEEN
POISED TOWARD THE CENTER.
FOR THE FIRST TIME IN ANYONE'S
MEMORY, WE WILL HAVE FIVE
STRONG HIRED RIGHT -- CARD
RIGHT JUDGES.
RIGHT JUDGES. >> WHAT DO YOU THINK WE WILL BE
NOTICING THE MOST?
>> I THINK ONE OF THE FIRST
THINGS YOU WILL SEEK ARE THE
SECOND AMENDMENT AND GUN
CONTROL ISSUES.
CONTROL ISSUES. A LOT OF THOSE HAVE BEEN
UNRESOLVED BY THE COURT IN
TERMS OF WHAT TYPE OF THINGS
PAST -- PASS CONSTITUTIONAL
MUSTER.
MUSTER.
MUSTER. YOU WILL SEE SOME CHANGE IN THE
ABORTION JURISPRUDENCE.
ABORTION JURISPRUDENCE. THE QUESTION IS REALLY, WHETHER
THE COURT WILL STAY AT THE CORE
OF ROE V. WADE OR CHIP AWAY AT
IT, AS FRANKLY, IT HAS BEEN
DOING FOR A LONG TIME.
>> WHAT WOULD THAT LOOK LIKE,
OUTLAWED IN CERTAIN STATES AND
NOT IN OTHERS?
IT IS POSSIBLE.
THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE THAT
IT WILL ALL GO AND THE FEDERAL
ABORTION RIGHT WILL GO AND IT
WILL BE UP TO THE STATES.
EVEN IF THAT DOESN'T HAPPEN,
THEY WILL ALLOW A LOT MORE
RESTRICTIONS ON A STATE-BY-STATE
BASIS.
BASIS.
BASIS. >>
BASIS. >> WE ALREADY HAVE THAT
LEGISLATION IN THE PIPELINE IN
DIFFERENT STATES.
DIFFERENT STATES. THOSE CASES, COME QUICKLY.
>> YES.
>> YES.
>> YES. WE DON'T KNOW HOW WILLING THE
JUSTICES ARE GOING TO BE TO
OVERALL.
OVERALL.
OVERALL. FOR ABORTION RIGHTS TO SURVIVE
IT WILL NEED THE VOTE OF ONE
JUSTICE THAT THINKS IT IS
FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG.
FUNDAMENTALLY WRONG. >> JOHN ROBERTS MIGHT BE THAT
VOTE.
VOTE.
VOTE. HE
VOTE. HE MAY BE THE CENTER NOW.
>> HE IS THE CENTER JUSTICE,
BUT HE IS NOT IN THE CENTER.
HE IS NOT A SWING JUSTICE.
HE HAS A GREAT DEAL OF RESPECT
FOR THE COURT AS AN INSTITUTION
AND IS WILLING TO LISTEN TO
ARGUMENTS.
ARGUMENTS. THERE HAVE BEEN A HANDFUL OF
CASES, LIKE THE HEALTHCARE
CASE, WHICH DISAPPOINTED THE
CONSERVATIVES.
CONSERVATIVES. HE IS A CONSERVATIVE.
>> WHAT HAPPENS IF, AND I AM
BASING THIS ON DATA AND POLLS
ON THIS, THE COURT RULES THAT
IS OUTSIDE THE MAINSTREAM OF
AMERICAN PUBLIC OPINION.
>> IT IS HARD.
THE COURT HAS A LOT OF
INDEPENDENT POWER, BUT
HISTORICALLY HAS NOT VEERED TOO
FAR FROM WHAT THE AMERICAN
PEOPLE HAVE WANTED. THEY HAVE
NOT VEERED TOO FAR FOR TOO
LONG.
LONG.
LONG. KNOW WE HAVE A SITUATION WHERE
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE WON THE
POPULAR VOTE IN SIX IN THE LAST
SEVEN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS.
REPUBLICANS WILL HAVE A PRETTY
FIRM CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY ON
THE COURT FOR A GENERATION.
IT CREATES TENSION.
HISTORICALLY IN THE PAST,
JUSTICES HAVE MOVED BECAUSE OF
THE PUBLIC PRESSURE BECAUSE IT
IS NOT WISE TO BE TOO CLOSE TO
THE PUBLIC.
THE PUBLIC. THERE COULD BE POLITICAL
PUSHBACK.
PUSHBACK.
PUSHBACK. WE ARE TALKING ABOUT WHETHER OR
NOT WE NEED TO ADD MORE
JUSTICES TO CHANGE THE
DYNAMICS, WHICH WOULD BREAK THE
TABOO THAT HAS EXISTED FOR A
LONG TIME.
LONG TIME. THERE WILL BE A LOT OF CONFLICT
BETWEEN THE POPULACE BETWEEN
DEMOCRATIC POLITICIANS AND THE
COURT FOR A LONG TIME TO COME.
>> I SEE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOCIAL UNREST IF YOU DON'T SEE
THE SUPREME COURT AS IT HAS
ALWAYS BEEN SEEN AS, THE
ULTIMATE ARBITRATOR.
ULTIMATE ARBITRATOR. IT HAS BEEN SEEN AS A
NONPOLITICAL PARTY.
NONPOLITICAL PARTY. IF WE SEE THAT, THAT COULD BE A
PROBLEM.
PROBLEM.
PROBLEM. >> A LOT OF PEOPLE COME TO
THINK OF IT AS SUCH.
THIS COULD BE THE TURNING
MOMENT FROM SOME OF THE PEOPLE
WORRYING ABOUT TO SOMETHING
PEOPLE ARE UNWILLING TO HANDLE.
>> IS THERE A DOUBLE JEOPARDY
CASE ABOUT TO BE HEARD? WHY IS
THAT IMPORTANT?
THAT IMPORTANT? >> IT IS A FAIRLY TECHNICAL
ISSUE.
ISSUE.
ISSUE. IT
ISSUE. IT SAYS A LOT ABOUT WILLINGNESS
TO RESPECT PRECEDENT AND BASIC
CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS.
CONSTITUTIONAL PROVISIONS. THERE HAS BEEN A LONG-STANDING
ROLE THAT SEPARATE SOVEREIGN,
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT CAN
PROSECUTE ALONG WITH THE STATE
WITHOUT VIOLATING DOUBLE
JEOPARDY.
JEOPARDY.
JEOPARDY. THE COURT WILL RECONSIDER THAT
THIS YEAR.
THIS YEAR. OBVIOUSLY, SOME PEOPLE ARE
PLAYING OUT THEIR CARDS AND
THINK THAT COULD HAVE POTENTIAL
RAMIFICATIONS FOR CONDUCT THAT
OFFICIALS, EVEN THE PRESIDENT,
THAT COULD BE SUBJECT TO THE
LAWS OF BOTH NEW YORK STATE AND
THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT --
>> YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT THE
RUSSIA PRO.
RUSSIA PRO. IF THIS GOES A DIFFERENT WAY,
THEY MAY NOT FACE STATE
CHARGES.
CHARGES.
CHARGES. >> I AM SKEPTICAL THE REASON
THE COURT HAS GRANTED THIS
CASE.
CASE.
CASE. IT
CASE. IT COULD COME INTO PUBLIC
CONSCIOUSNESS VERY QUICKLY
BECAUSE OF THE RUSSIA PROBE.
>> DO YOU THINK IT WILL BE?
>> IT IS FUN TO HANDICAP.
WE HAVE SOME FAVORITES.
PROBABLY, THE BETTING FAVORITE
IS BRETT KAVANAUGH, WHO IS ON
THE D.C. CIRCUIT. HE IS ON THE
APPEALS COURT IN D.C. HE IS A
STRONG CONSERVATIVE.
STRONG CONSERVATIVE. HE WAS ONE OF KEN STARR'S
DEPUTIES.
DEPUTIES.
DEPUTIES. HE SERVED IN THE BUSH WHILE HAS
-- WHITE HOUSE.
HE HAS HIGH CREDENTIALS, HE WAS
A CLERK.
A CLERK.
A CLERK. THERE'S A LOT OF SPECULATION
ABOUT HIM.
ABOUT HIM. ANOTHER ONE GETTING A LOT OF
ATTENTION IS A MULTIPART.
HE IS SOUTH ASIAN.
HE IS A FAVORITE OF MITCH
McCONNELL'S.
McCONNELL'S. TRUMP INTERVIEWED HIM FOR THE
LAST SHOT. THE LEADING FEMALE
CANDIDATE IS A FELLOW LAW
PROFESSOR OF MINE, AMY CONEY
BARRETT, A NOTRE DAME LAW
PROFESSOR.
PROFESSOR. SHE IS VERY IMPRESSIVE IN A LOT
OF WAYS.
OF WAYS.
OF WAYS. A LITTLE BIT LESS EXPERIENCED
THAN SOME OF THESE OTHER
CANDIDATES, BUT THERE ARE A LOT
OF REPUBLICANS THAT LOVE THE
IDEA TO HAVE A FIFTH VOTE ON
SOME OF THESE ISSUES AND GET
THE WOMEN VOTE.
>> DO YOU THINK THIS PERSON
WILL BE NAMED AND CONFIRMED BY
THE FALL?
THE FALL?
THE FALL? >> THE ODDS LOOK THAT WAY.
THEY WILL BE NAMED WITHIN A
WEEK.
WEEK.
WEEK. THE