There is one piece that doesn't quite fit in the whole Prigozhin coup affair.
By now, you will have read all kinds of analysis and countless videos on the subject...
but there is still one question to be answered: What did Lukashenko promise Prigozhin?
Put yourself in the shoes of Wagner's leader for a moment.
You are about to enter Moscow.
Suddenly Alexander Lukashenko calls us and says "turn around, come with me to Belarus
and don't worry, nobody is going to kill you!”
Would you really trust him?
I mean, if there is one thing that characterizes Vladimir Putin, it is that he does not hesitate
attempting to kill his opponents.
And this is not a metaphorical term.
Just remember Alexei Navalny, who was almost poisoned to death... and so many others who
were not so lucky.
And, if there is one person that Putin would like to see in the ground right now... it
is Prigozhin.
So what makes this man think that he is safe in Belarus, that he is an ally of Russia?
Well... here comes the hypothesis we’re putting forward in this video....
What if this is a masterstroke by Lukashenko?
For the moment, we all agree that he has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of this coup
attempt, but....
How much of a beneficiary?
Let's put it more boldly…
What if, in reality, Vladimir Putin has been the "mug", or the "simp" of this whole affair...
and he doesn't know it?
Pay attention because in today's video we are going to touch on many clues that will
make you see the Prigozhin coup with very different eyes!
One of our favorite internet pastimes is following pro-Russian propagandists on Twitter.
They still think that Putin is a strategic genius: a 4-dimensional chess champion.
And in order to justify that Putin is a strategic genius, they are capable of doing real somersaults
of mental gymnastics.
Pay attention to this meme that has been circulating lately.
Sure!
Now it turns out that, in reality, Prigozhin was following Putin's dictates to end up 100
kilometers from Kyiv....
Masterstroke!Let's see... if Putin wanted to send Wagner's troops to the border with
Kyiv....
He wouldn't have needed to fake a coup and risk his internal position!
Besides...
What would be the point?
Forgive me for laughing but....
What's the point of trying to take Kyiv again with 25,000 troops?
In February 2022, with nearly 200,000 troops armed to the hilt, they made fools of themselves.
Now, with far fewer troops...
Are they going to improve the result?
Well, what a chess move!
Let's see, my dear Putin fanboys, I understand that faith moves mountains, but this is already
a joke.
No matter how you look at it, Prigozhin's coup has absolutely no good interpretations
for Russia – none!
We can argue about whether it's good or bad for Ukraine, but... it's clear that Putin
has been the biggest loser in all this.
But okay, that’s something we already knew.
The question now is...
Who is the biggest BENEFICIARY?
Well, in this case, there is little doubt: Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus.
For the moment, he has set himself up as the savior of Putin's Russia.
But...
What if, in reality, he has been taking advantage of Putin's lack of control?
To sum up this story in twitter terms....
We used to think Putin was a Chad.
Now we are seeing that, in reality, he is a textbook SIMP.
And why do we say that Lukashenko has benefited so much from this coup d'état?
Why do we say that the disaster for Putin may be even greater than we thought... and
puts him in a position of a mug as regards Belarus?
Today we are going to answer these questions.
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And now, yes, let's continue.
Let's take a look at some history].
(A VERY RESILIENT DICTATOR)
For those who do not know him, Alexander Lukashenko is the dictator who has ruled Belarus with
an iron fist since 1994.
One of the few dictators who does not even make an effort to put on a democratic mask.
In fact, he has even bragged about his dictatorial status with phrases like this one.
("It is better to be a dictator than gay" – Alexander Lukashenko)
Well, when the Ukrainian war started, we all expected that the Belarusian economy would
collapse.
Think of it this way: Belarus has also been sanctioned by the West, but unlike Russia,
they have no gas or oil.
The main export of this country of 9 million people is....
Fertilizers!
That and some technology.
For example, are you familiar with the video game "World of Tanks"?
Well... it's made in Belarus.
Or, at least, it used to be.
(Belarus' biggest games company is leaving the country – and Russia.
World of Tanks developer Wargaming to close studios and transfer operation of games – Polygon)
To give you an idea, since the 2020 protests, more than 20,000 IT workers have left Belarus.
These figures are truly atrocious if we take into account that this particular industry
has a total of between 60–100,000 workers.
Belarus is losing more than 20% of its most qualified workers.
At this point, we can say that the only economic sectors left alive in the country are fertilizers
and some metallurgy.
The problem is, how can they export these products?
Belarus is landlocked.
And even before the Ukrainian war started, Lithuania had already forbidden them to use
the port of Klaipeda.
It used to be the main outlet for Belarus' fertilizer.
Without it, the entire economy was on the verge of collapse.
In fact, in just one year, Belarus' exports to the European Union fell by 45%.
Take a look at this graph.If you notice, after the announcement of the closure of the Lithuanian
port to Belarus, the country's currency falls.
Then comes the Ukrainian war and Western sanctions... and it plummets.
And...
all of a sudden, in July 2022...
It bounces back almost miraculously!
Yes, that's right, and since then, it has continued to fall slowly.
Of course, capital controls have played a key role, but these have not been the currency’s
only "shield".
To give you an idea, some predictions were that Belarus' GDP would fall by 10% in 2022.
However, this drop came in at 4.7%.
It is still a huge crisis... but it is not the hole you would expect.
And why, you may ask, what has Belarus done to avoid armageddon?
Well we can sum it up in one phrase: Russia to the rescue!
That’s right!
Russia has done everything possible to help its ally.
For example, they have ceded all their ports so that they can resume exports.
Not only that!
Minsk is going to build its own port on Russian territory.
Thanks to this, they can continue to export their fertilizers to countries like China
and Brazil.
Russia has offered very generous lines of credit to the country.
And, as a good ally, it has given it preference for imports.
In other words, the Russians now import more Belarusian products than before.
To be precise, 40% more than before the war.
This has served to absorb the shock of the fall in exports to the European Union.
Not surprisingly, all this comes with oil and gas prices that are the envy of all Europe.
And, believe me, this has been felt by all citizens.
Just look at the gasoline prices.
In other words, Belarus is having a hard time, but not as hard as you might expect.
And it's all thanks to Russia.
But wait a minute, because we're not just talking about the economy!
Listen up.
(A DICTATOR...
WITH FEET OF CLAY)
Unlike Putin, Lukashenko does have a known and organized opposition.
You see, in 2020 they held "elections" (AIR QUOTE GESTURE).
An election as fraudulent as you would expect... but with a difference.
In this case there was a candidate in opposition to Lukashenko: SVIATLANA TSIKHANOUSKAYA.
And this woman did manage to galvanize an opposition movement that resulted in mass
protests against the dictatorship.
Of course, Lukashenko responded with the brutal repression one would expect.
See for yourself in this graphic.
Right now, however, Tsikhanouskaya is in exile in Lithuania.
From there, she is organizing a very well-assembled opposition movement.
To give you an idea, they even have an app called "New Belarus".
From there, they coordinate with all Belarusians in exile.
Meanwhile, Lukashenko does not have much power for preventing a serious uprising.
For starters, the Belarusian army is in much the same condition as the Ukrainian army was
before 2014.
Soviet weaponry, lots and lots of corruption and.... very few troops.
To put a number on it, it is estimated that the Belarusian army consists of only about
50,000 soldiers.
And that's not all, of these troops it is estimated that only 17,000 are currently trained
and prepared for combat.
And that's being generous.
Many sources reduce this estimate even further, to between 6,000 and 10,000 troops.
And to top it off, it is not even very clear that they are 100% loyal to Lukashenko.
Indeed, one of the reasons why this country has not sent troops to Ukraine is because
the dictator knows he cannot put pressure on his generals.
Yes, it is true, Belarus has allowed Russian troops to pass through its national territory.
But that's as far as their help goes.
And, at the same time...
Belurusians were generating this kind of news.
(Rebel Forces In Belarus Partially Cut Off Railway Route Into Ukraine – Forbes)
So you see!
Lukashenko can't even prevent sabotage on his own territory.
And the question is...
How can you maintain a dictatorship with such feet of clay?
The answer is in a single phrase: Russia to the rescue!
(Vladimir Putin has offered to send military assistance to support Belarus President Alexander
Lukashenko as up to 200,000 protesters gather to demand his removal – Business Insider)
This was Putin's help when Lukashenko was on the ropes in 2020.
But look what they are doing now!
(Belarus starts taking delivery of Russian nuclear weapons – Reuters)
That’s right!
Belarus is already under the nuclear umbrella of Russia.
By the time you watch this video, Belarus will already have nuclear weapons to defend
its territory.
And all this arrives as a present from Vladimir Putin.
The question is...
Does all this support come for free?
Obviously not.
So what is the price?
We will take a look at that right now.
(WE WILL BE TOGETHER...
SOMEDAY)
In 1991, Belarus became independent from the Soviet Union.
But...
Moscow never quite believed that this country would be free and sovereign for long.
By 1999, with BORIS YELTSIN as president, Belarus signed an agreement for the so-called
"Union State".
This means that someday, Russia and Belarus would unite in a supranational entity called
"Union State".
Named this way, it sounds like a kind of European Union, doesn't it?
I doubt I need to convince you that it's not.
The name suggests something like that, a union, a marriage, but... think about it carefully:
This is Russia, the largest country in the world in terms of territory, with more than
140 million inhabitants... and that's...
[SPOKEN WITH DISRESPECT] Belarus.
Clearly, it was not a marriage between equals, but a contract of pure and simple submission.
An attempt for Belarus to become just another Russian region.
And there is one thing we have to be clear about:
Lukashenko may be an evil and ruthless tyrant....
But he is no fool!
And he is not willing to lose his power.
So these two countries signed the agreement...
but, since then, they have not taken any steps in the direction of uniting.
Not only that!
Putin has gone so far as to pressure Lukashenko using his biggest economic weapon: oil and
gas.
And the Belarusian dictator has even stood up to him by going to such lengths as this.
(14 February 2020: Belarus threatens to siphon off Russian oil intended for Europe – Al
Jazeera)
That’s right!
This is not a joke.
Belarus went so far as to threaten to steal Russian gas passing through its territory
and being shipped to Europe.
Even so, this happened back in 2020.
Specifically from BEFORE the protests against Lukashenko.
At that time, this dictator thought he had a position of strength.
But then came the mass-protests and in Minsk they realized that a dictator only has power
if he has military muscle to support him.
Without that...
there is nothing in it.
So when Lukashenko found himself on the ropes, he had no choice but to go crawling back to
Putin.
And that’s basically been the state of the relationship between these two countries over
the last two years.
Reaching extremes like this.
(Leaked Document Outlines Russia's 2030 Belarus 'Annexation' Strategy – The Moscow Times)
Nevertheless...
stay tuned because now things have changed.
Once again: Lukashenko may be bad but he is no fool.
And he knows how to spot the opportunities.
Here comes the plot twist that no one expected.
(WHO'S THE "MUG" HERE?)
On 24 June 2023, the Wagner Group mercenaries are planted a few hundred kilometers from
Moscow.
Within hours, flights out of Moscow are sold out.
Muscovites are terrified by what looks to be the start of a civil war.
We are talking about almost 25,000 rebel troops who are advancing through Russian territory
and appearing quite at home.
And you may be wondering, could they have taken Moscow?
Most probably not.
But it is clear that, had they continued their march, it would have been a real bloodbath.
And then, just when Putin was really on the ropes... the following happens.
What you're going to hear now is literally the telephone conversation that Lukashenko
himself claims he had with Putin.
--Come on Putin!
How are you going to "liquidate" the mutineers?
Let's talk to Prigozhin and his commanders....
--Look, Sasha...
He won't even pick up the phone!
He doesn't want to talk to me anymore!
And then Lukashenko arrives and calls Prigozhin.
Minutes later, Wagner says that they are leaving Moscow and going....
To Belarus!
And hours later, the Kremlin says the following.
(Russia Drops Criminal Charges Against Prigozhin After Wagner Rebellion – NY Times)
For the next few days, Prigozhin is unaccounted for.
At the same time, Russia says that all Wagner's mercenaries who did NOT participate in the
mutiny will be welcomed into the regular army.
But remember that Prigozhin had between 20,000 and 25,000 military personnel in his command
at the time of the coup.
And you will say, can mercenaries be loyal?
Well... probably much more than we might think.
For one thing, they supported him in his coup attempt.
But also, think about this: Prigozhin has recruited ex-officers from the Russian army
and paid them astronomical salaries.
He has also recruited ex-convicts.
And you will say, can an ex-convict be loyal?
The answer is yes.
Very much so.
We are talking about people whose lives have been totally destroyed.
People with no family and no future to whom Prigozhin offered a second chance.
The chance to go from being criminals to being heroes of their homeland.
Throughout history we have seen lots of elite corps that have been created with a very similar
philosophy.
In other words, Prigozhin is not alone.
And Lukashenko knows it.
And that's why Lukashenko is not only welcoming the leader of the Wagners into his country...
but his entire entourage as well.
(They will tell us about the weapons: which worked well, which didn't.)
And tactics, and weapons, and how to attack, how to defend (...) That's invaluable.That's
what we need to take from the Wagnerites – Alexander Lukashenko)
And the truth is that he is right.
Wagner's mercenaries are real beasts: responsible for the most savage tortures you can imagine.
But one thing is certain: they are practically the only ones who have achieved any victory
for the Russian side in Ukraine.
And that explains news items like this.
(Belarus Building Camps for Relocated Wagner Members – National Review)
You see!
Lukashenko is not wasting any time.
And some will say, but where are they going to get the money to maintain these warriors?
After all, without the contracts Wagner had with the Kremlin, who is going to pay their
salaries?
Well, if you are long-time followers of VisualPolitik you already know that Wagner is not only in
Ukraine.
It is also very active in Africa, where they do not charge in money but are paid in kind.
Wagner controls several mines in Africa.
We are talking about gold and other resources worth billions of dollars.
All that money is no longer going to the Kremlin... but into Wagner's pockets.
In other words, it is very likely that Prigozhin's accounts are as healthy as those of Putin
himself.
And where is Prigozhin now?
Exactly!
In Minsk, the capital of Belarus.
And what did Lukashenko need to stand face to face with Putin?
Exactly!
Military muscle.
Earlier we said that Belarus only has an army of less than 50,000 active units and that
they are poorly trained and poorly armed.
Now they have just received 20,000 to 25,000 combat-experienced and well-trained troops.
And I know what some of you will say, but [host!]
What’s to say that Prigozhin will be loyal to Lukashenko?
The answer is...
Circumstance!
Wagner can't go back to Russia...
But they need to be somewhere!
Few countries are going to offer them asylum....
Except Belarus.
In other words, for the time being, Lukashenko and Prigozhin have very good reasons to get
along.
And, of course, by the time Putin has realized this move, it is already too late....
After everything that we have seen, only one thing is clear: Putin has just become Lukashenko's
mug.
First he has given him money and political support.
Then he sent him nuclear weapons.
Now he has given him a private army.
The question is.
Are we going to see the tension between Russia and Belarus flare up again?
Will Putin try to remove the nuclear weapons he has ALREADY installed in Belarus?
Who has more power right now, Putin or Lukashenko?
You can leave me your answer in the comments.
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