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>>> ALL RIGHT, WELCOME BACK,
THERE IS THE ELECTION MUSIC.
THERE IS A REASON WE’RE PLAYING
THE ELECTION MUSIC RIGHT NOW IN
APRIL OF 2019.
WE HAVE NEW INFORMATION, NEW
NUMBERS ABOUT THE 2018 MIDTERMS
AND MAYBE WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT
AHEAD COMING IN 2020
2018, THE BIG STORY THERE,
DEMOCRATS GOT THAT 40 SEAT GAIN.
WON BACK CONTROL OF THE HOUSE.
A LITTLE DIFFERENT STORY ON THE
SENATE SIDE, BUT ON THE HOUSE
SIDE THERE WAS A BLUE WAVE LAST
YEAR
YEAR WE KNOW THAT
THE QUESTION WE HAVE BEEN ASKING
IS WHAT POWERED THAT WAEF.
WE HAVE SOME CLUES BUT NOW WE
HAVE COMPREHENSIVE DEEP DATA
FROM THE CENSUS BUREAU, AND IT
GIVES US A LOOK AT WHO VOTED AND
WHY THE DEMOCRATS DID SO WELL.
A COUPLE THINGS FIRST OF ALL,
JUST OVERALL TURN OUT, THINK
BACK TO THE LAST MIDTERM, THAT
WAS A BIG MIDTERM FOR
REPUBLICANS.
REPUBLICANS. THE OVERALL TURNOUT WAS 42%.
THE LAST WAS 53%
THIS WAS STAGGERINGLY TURNOUT.
TURN OUT UP UP EVERYWHERE.
EVERY GROUP TURNED OUT IN BIGGER
NUMBERS THAN WE NORMALLY SEE,
BUT SOME TURNED OUT, THE SURGE
WAS JUST MASSIVE
LOOK AT AGE, WE TALK ALL OF THE
TIME, TRUMP, THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY IN GENERAL
66 TURNS OUT IN 18, 69% IN 14.
A GAIN THERE
WORK BACK ON THE AGE LIKE.
30 TO 44, A A 13 POINT JUMP, THE
YOUNGER GROUP OF VOTERS THE
HIGHEST LEAP, NEARLY DOUBLING
FROM 20% IN 2014 UP TO 36%
WE HAVE BEEN TALKING FOR A LONG
TIME BOY IF DEMOCRATS COULD GET
THE FOLKS OUT TO THE POLLS THEY
COULD REAP IN 2018
THAT MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE FOR
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. ANOTHER EDUCATIONAL LEVEL.
TRUMP POWERED BY NONCOLLEGE
WHITE VOTERS
WHITE VOTERS ALSO A BACKLASH AGAINST TRUMP IN
THE SUBURBS.
THE SUBURBS. COLLEGE EDUCATED VOTERS, POST
GRAD, START WORKING YOUR WAY UP
HERE, LESS THAN A HIGH SCHOOL
DIPLOMA, THERE WAS AN INCREASE
THERE OF FIVE POINTS, BUT IT
GETS BIGGER AS YOU WORK YOUR WAY
UP
UP HIGH SCHOOL AN EIGHT POINT
INCREASE
INCREASE SOME COLLEGE A 13 POINT JUMP,
BACHELOR’S DEGREE, 13 POINT
JUMP, ADVANCED DEGREE, 12%, WHEN
YOU ADEQUATE INTO THE DEMOCRATIC
FRIENDLY DEMOGRAPHICS THAT WHERE
YOU SEE THE INCREASE
THE TRUMP FRIENDLY DEMOGRAPHICS
ARE INCREASING BUT NOT AS BIG.
THE FOLKS THAT DEMOCRATS HAVE
BEEN TARGETING ARE THE ONES
CLEARLY MOST ACTIVATED, THE MOST
ENERGIZED, AND TURNED OUT TO
DELIVER THE HOUSE IN A MASSIVE
HIGH TURNOUT FOR MIDTERM
ELECTIONS.
ELECTIONS. THE QUESTION FOR 2020 IS CAN
DEMOCRATS GET THE SAME FOLKS OUT
WITH THAT MUCH ENERGY OR EVEN
MORE OF THEM, AND CAN THAT TRUMP