Middlesbrough have been relegated following a 3-0 loss to Chelsea.
Much of the ire has been directed towards the side’s lack of
attacking intent and resulting paucity of goals scored.
For Boro’, Alvaro Negredo has top scored with only nine goals, Cristhian Stuani and
Marten de Roon have four, and no other ‘Boro player has more than two.
But how does ‘Boro’s lack of goals compare to other Premier League sides?
In absolute terms, ‘Boro have scored the fourth fewest goals seen in a Premier League season.
Of course, ‘Boro have two games left to reach a higher tally, so what happens we when
look at goals per game?
Well, the picture doesn’t shift much – Middlesbrough are currently the
fifth worst team in Premier League history for goals scored per game.
The Derby County 2007/08 vintage was, of course, the worst team seen in the Premier
League, notching up only 11 points.
They were relegated, naturally, as were the other four
teams in that list; all of them, in fact, bar Middlesbrough this season, finished bottom.
Indeed, if you look at every team that has scored 30 or fewer goals per season, all but
three were relegated and one of those three, Sunderland
in 2001/02, escaped the drop by the skin of their teeth.
Lucas Radebe’s Leeds United are odd outliers, finishing in 11 th place in 1996/97 despite
only scoring 28 goals under George Graham.
In a season that saw an average of 2.55 goals per
game, Leeds gamely managed only 0.74 goals per game.
It should be noted that only seven points separated 9th placed Leicester City
from 18 th placed Sunderland, and so Leeds were in
a tightly bunched bottom half; nonetheless, it’s a remarkable achievement to have done
so well being quite so poor; their nine 0-0 draws
are also a 38 game Premier League season record, shared with Sunderland in 2014/15.
In fact, if one looks at the 22 sides who have scored 31 goals per game or fewer in
a 38 game season, plus Crystal Palace in 1994/95 who
averaged 0.81 goals per game in a 42 game season and thus fit into that bracket too,
all but five have been relegated and ten of the 23 have finished bottom.
Averaging the finishes of the 22 teams who’ve scored 31 goals per game or fewer in a 38
game season (that is, discounting Palace in 1994/95), the average finishing position for
a team who scores so few goals is 18.5, or between
19th and 18th – essentially guaranteed relegation.
This season, the bottom ten clubs for goals per game are indeed, with two exceptions,
the bottom ten clubs by league position.
Southampton are suffering their lowest scoring season since returning to the Premier
League but their defence is reasonable, hence a 10th place currently, while West Bromwich
Albion are a Pulis-coached outlier, as usual.
Middlesbrough this season have been poor in attack, not just relative to the league in
2016/17 but historically across the Premier League.
Indeed, should they fail to score at home to Southampton and away at Liverpool,
both totally plausible scenarios, they will leap-
frog Aston Villa’s 2015/16 effort to record the joint 3 rd worst goals per game in Premier League history.
Goals might not save you from relegation, but a lack of goals will very likely condemn you to it.