- Elon just confirmed that we will see the Tesla Model Y
in all its glory on March 14th, 2019,
one day earlier than previously stated
in a Tweet response to me, kind of a joke, about a year ago.
Now, I wanted to just take a look
at what we know currently, some additional details
that Elon gave us in this kinda Tweet thread
that he had, as well as how that stacks
up to the Model 3, in case you are undecided,
especially now that the standard range,
along with many other versions
of the Model 3, are available.
(downtempo music)
Let's go.
So the Model Y is to the Model X
what the Model 3 is to the Model S.
That is, a crossover SUV, a smaller SUV,
that is gonna basically be a simplified version
of the Model X, which isn't hard
to do because the Model X has kind
of every feature you could imagine under the sun.
Now, in addition to Elon confirming the unveiling date,
he also gave us some additional details.
Notably, he gave us this Tweet stating
that the Model Y will be about 10% bigger,
cost 10% more, and have slightly
less range than the Model 3.
So let's start with the Model 3,
and then kind of do this basic math
here to see what the Model Y will look
like, and how it will stack up.
For this, I'm gonna include three options
for the Model 3, the Standard, the Long Range,
and the All Wheel Drive.
The Model 3 Standard Edition comes
in at 220 miles of range with a $35,000 base price,
and 15 cubic feet of storage, which is normal
for a car this size, but substantially
less than the Model S and Model X,
and likely much smaller than we're gonna see in the Model Y.
So if we extrapolate out here,
the Model Y Standard Edition should have a range
of 200 miles or more.
I can't really imagine them making
one with under 200 miles in today's world.
Now, with a cost of 10% more, that brings
us to $38,500, and I'm estimating the cargo capacity
here to be about 30 cubic feet
or more, which is on par with
other smaller SUVs on the market today.
The Model 3 Long Range has an estimated range of 325 miles.
This is after a recent bump in efficiency
that is coming soon through a firmware update
that Elon reported recently.
So that's actually 105 miles more
than the standard range, a really big jump.
Now, this cost also has a bigger jump.
It's $43,000, and the cargo capacity
and all the other features essentially are the same,
with some of the other minor improvements to the interior.
If we extrapolate that to the Model Y Long Range,
assuming they follow the same naming convention,
this means it will have a range
of around 295 miles, which is
around 9% less than the Model 3.
Again, this is my estimate.
We'll have more details coming soon.
If we add in the 10% on the cost,
that means we'll have a cost for the Model Y Long Range
of $47,300, and assuming the overall design
and all the other features are similar,
it'll have the same cargo space,
likely with an upgraded interior
to the Model Y Standard Edition.
That brings us to the Model 3 All Wheel Drive.
I'm not concluding the Performance model here,
just the regular Long Range All Wheel Drive version.
This one has a range, currently, of 310 miles.
This may change down the road,
but right now, that's what it's sticking to,
and the cost here starts at $47,000,
and again, the same cargo capacity
and features as the Model 3 Long Range,
with the exception of the extra motor here,
giving it the dual-motor traction control
and all those added features, which is great
if you're in a snowy or colder climate.
Now, assuming we have a similar parity
with the Model Y, we'll have a Model Y All Wheel Drive
with a range of around 300 miles,
is what I'm estimating, a cost of $51,700
to start, and again, same cargo capacity
and features as the Model Y Long Range.
So now that the Model 3 is available
for delivery in a relatively short period
of time as compared to what it's been
for the past few years, it really,
I think, poses a challenge for a lot
of people as to which they should go with.
Should they wait, now, for the Model Y,
or should they order that Model 3 Standard
or Mid-Range that they've been waiting on?
Well, a recently leaked document shows
that Tesla has planned a production ramp-up
of 7,000 units per week at Gigafactory 1,
and 5,000 units per week at the
currently un-built China Gigafactory,
which is just really picking up steam
and coming online a lot quicker than most people thought.
This means that, by the end of 2020
or early 2021, Tesla could be making
over 10,000 Model Ys per week with
these two factories combined.
And a Tesla spokesperson did respond
to that leaked document a few months ago,
stating that essentially those plans were out-of-date,
but not refuting them.
It was a real document.
And then later, Elon gave us this
on the most recent earnings call.
- [Elon] The Model Y is, I think, 76%,
or something like that, in common with the Model 3.
And we're most likely gonna put Model Y production right
next to, in fact is part of, our main Gigafactory in Nevada.
So this should be right there.
Batteries and powertrains will come out
and go straight into the vehicle.
So that also reduces our risk of execution
and reduces the cost of having to transfer parts
from California to Nevada.
So it's not a for-sure thing, but it's
quite likely and it's at our default plant.
- So after Elon basically confirmed a lot
of what they had said previously
in that leaked document, it sounds
like there will be a significant amount
of overlap between the Model 3
and the Model Y, and they're gonna be making
'em, they're gonna be assembling the cars,
which currently happens in Fremont,
they're gonna be assembling 'em right
at the Gigafactory 1, which is
where they make the powertrains,
and the battery packs, and kind
of everything else they need.
All those things combined lead
me to believe that this will come
to market much sooner than the two-,
almost three-year wait that we've had on the Model 3.
So despite all those details, this is the
only real teaser image we have of the Model Y to date.
We won't have to wait longer, though,
because March 14th is just right around the corner,
and we will have all these details.
And of course, I'll be ringing
them back here to you on YouTube once the event is over.
So the question remains.
Which one are you gonna choose?
Well, here are my thoughts, and why
I will actually be buying a Model Y.
So for me, my perspective, the Model 3 is the
most fun Tesla to drive.
It is like a go-kart that is
just super quick and responsive.
It is an incredible driving experience.
It also is a great commuter car because it's a big smaller.
It fits into spaces, more urban areas.
It's incredibly efficient and has a very long range
if you get one of the higher-end models.
So this is amazing vehicle for
those purposes, but it's not great
on the cargo nor for families.
If you have even one kid, it can be a tight fit
back there, depending on their age.
If you have two kids, it's almost
not workable in my own experience.
Also, if you want to pick things
up from, say, IKEA, and bring them home,
chances are they're not gonna fit
here because of the lack of a hatchback
in the rear trunk space.
Now, on the other hand, the Model Y is
really great, or we assume will be great,
for families and cargo because
of the added space, and hopefully an added hatchback.
We assume that's what we'll see.
Now, it is, compared to other SUVs
in this space, going to be relatively affordable,
especially considering all the advanced technology
you get, like the autopilot features
and all that kind of stuff, but it will
still be small and versatile.
So it's not like have a full-size SUV
that is very difficult to drive in kinda more urban areas.
So I'm gonna be buying a Model Y
and likely will trade in the Model 3
for it because it's my wife's car,
and all the things that she kind
of doesn't like about the Model 3 should be solved
here with the Model Y, which is great.
Now, I'm curious what you're gonna choose.
Do you have a Model 3 already?
Are you gonna trade up or trade in for a Model Y?
Or are you still waiting to pull the trigger
on either one of these?
I'd love to know the exact reasons
and what your thinking is, and I'll do
my best to kinda give you my perspective
on it in the comments down below.
And of course stay with me because
this is gonna be a fun journey,
like it is always, following Tesla,
especially here, because as I mentioned,
I will be getting one of these,
so I'll be sharing that whole experience with you.
As well as, I hope to go to the unveiling event
here next week, in which case I will give
you my recap and kinda capture
that mood for you just following the event.
So that's it for now.
Talk to you guys in the comments,
and don't forget, when you free the data,
you mind will follow.
I'll see you back here in the next one.
(downtempo music)
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