attractive long life assets today.
TRUCKERS. today.
>>>.
>> .
>> MARKETS RALLYING THIS
MORNING FOLLOWING DAY
TURBULENT DAY DOW INDUSTRIALS
UP 204 S&P 500 HIGHER BY 29,
NASDAQ UP 143.
STOCKS RALLYING AFTER
YESTERDAY’S VOLATILITY, S&P
500 CLOSING IN THE CORRECTION
TERRITORY DOW SEEING LOWEST
CLOSE IN ABOUT 8 MONTHS, ON
THE HEIGHTENED GEOPOLITICAL
TENSIONS JOINING ME FOUNDER
EDITOR OF THE REPORT LARRY
MCDONALD I WANT TO KICK OFF
WITH THOUGHTS ON TENSIONS
BETWEEN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE HOW
THAT IS IMPACTING MARKETS?
>> FASCINATING SINCE NOVEMBER
STREET AND FED RATCHETING UP
RATE HIKE EXPECTATIONS THREE
TO FOUR TO FIVE TO SIX TO
SEVEN, REALLY -- NOW WHAT IS
HAPPENING IS THREAT, UKRAINE
GLOBAL ECONOMY PLUS INFLATION
THOSE TWO DYNAMICS HIKING
RATES FOR HEADED HE HAD ABOUT
WITNESS BACKTRACK IF THEY GO
FORWARD WITH CURRENT PLAN WILL
PUT US IN RECESSION VERY FAST.
DO YOU THINK A 50-BASIS POINT
HIKE IN MARCH OR NOT.
>> I THINK THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE
DYNAMIC HAS TAKEN THAT OFF THE
TABLE, BUT A STRANGE THING
HAPPENING, WHERE WE HAVE RATE
HIKES PRICED FOR THIS YEAR THE
FUTURES MARKET, BUT RATE CUTS
LIKE 204 ARE STARTING TO PRICE
IN, SO THE MARKET THE BOND
MARKET TELLING US SOMETHING
VERY OMINOUS IS HAPPENING
UNDER THE SURFACE.
MARIA: A TELL ME WHAT BOND
MARKET IS SAYING RIGHT NOW?
BECAUSE YOU JUST MENTIONED A
MOMENT AGO IF WE WERE TO SEE
THESE RATE HIKES, FED WILL
TAKE INTO RECESSION HE GOS.
>> EXACTLY INFLATION AND
GLOBAL TENSION UKRAINE ARE
CREATING CONTRACTION IN
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE, SPENDING
AT THE END OF THE DAY, THE
BOND MARKET, 230s, 530s
TREASURY IF YOU LOOK AT STOCKS
THE XLP RECESSION APPROVE
CAMPBELL SUPERS WALMARTS,
COSTCOS IMPRACTICABLE
OUTPERFORMING S&P AND NASDAQ
BY GREATEST MEASURE SINCE LAST
PREVIOUS RECEASING IF YOU GO
BACK 40 YEARS, DEFENSIVE
STOCKS ACT LIKE THIS WE ARE
HEADING TOWARD A RECESSION.
>> ADD ON THE PRICE OF OIL
YOU’VE GOT TO BELIEVE HIGHER
GASOLINE PRICES HIGHER CRUDE
HEATING OIL INTO ON THE GROUND
O DISPOVBL INCOME FOR CONSUMER
COULD ADD TO POTENTIAL
RECESSION PRICES LOWER, BY A
QUARTER OF ONE PERCENT, BUT
YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT A MARKET
THAT HAS BEEN ELEVATED NOW A
YEAR, YOUR BASICALLY MOVING
BACK OFF SOME BIG MOVES IN
ENERGY STOCKS RIGHT NOW;
RIGHT?
HOW DO YOU WANT TO INVEST
AROUND 96 DOLLAR A BARREL
BRENT RIGHT NOW.
EXACTLY YOU AND I -- LOOKED AT
SEGMENT LAST YEAR, YEAR BEFORE
POUNDING THE TABLE TOGETHER
WITH YOU POUNDING THE TABLE ON
ENERGY, NOW -- WE ARE SEEING A
MASSIVE BACKWARDATION IN
ENERGY SIMILAR TO BEFORE
LEHMAN, A SIGN OF A BLOWOFF,
IN ENERGY THE ONE DYNAMIC THAT
IS WHACKY BEYOND BELIEF APPLE
NEAR 3 TRILLION-DOLLAR
VALUATION, PRETTY CLOSE, THE
THINGS, 50% OF THE NASDAQ DOWN
50%.
SO ONE TWO OF THESE THINGS IS
DRAMATICALLY WRONG, EITHER
APPLE HAS TO COME DOWN 10, 15,
20%, OR BEATEN UP TECH STOCKS
HAVE 20 COME UP I THINK THE
INDICES ARE IN FOR POTENTIAL
NEAR-TERM CRASH HERE BECAUSE
THEY ARE BEING HELD UP BY A
FEW DARLINGS WHAT I CALL CROWN
JEWELS BUT INFORM
SIGNIFICATIVE THERE HAS
ALREADY BEEN A SUBSTANTIAL
CRASH.
MARIA: ARE YOU LOOKING AT
GROWTH CRASHING WHAT KIND OF
QUOTE/UNQUOTE CRASH ARE YOU
TALKING ABOUT?
>> WELL I THINK THE APPLE
PASS, NEXT SIX WEEKS 20% OTHER
SIDE BIOTECHS VALUE NAMES
INTEL INTEL, 3.3% DIVIDEND,
DIVIDEND ALMOST DOUBLED LAST
10 YEARS STOCK BEATEN UP SO
TREMENDOUS VALUE IN THE
MARKET.
BUT THERE IS ALSO TREMENDOUS
FROTH IN LARGE MEGA CAP.
>> A YEAH, I I MEAN WHAT ABOUT
THAT BECAUSE THE S&P 500 IS
NOW IN CORRECTION MODE, LOOK
AT SOME OF THE S&P NAMES HAVE
TONE WELL, FOR EXAMPLE,
FINANCIALS, DO YOU WANT TO
APPLY FINANCIALS OR HAS THAT
SHIP SAILED AS WELL.
I LIKE, STILL GLOBAL
FINANCIALS VALUE EW-- EPS
FAVTEST GLOBAL COMMODITY PLAY
DRAMATICALLY OUTPERFORMING
TECH STOCKS IN UNITED STATES,
SO GLOBAL VALUE FINANCIALS,
GLENCORES, COMPANIES IN COMMODITY SPACE TECH
COMMODITY SPACE TECH
RESOURCES, COPPERPLAY YU RAIN
YAUM COAL PLAYS HARD ASSET
PLAYS DRAMATICALLY
OUTPERFORMING S&P THIS YEAR
AND NASDAQ WILL CONTINUE THE
NEXT PROBABLY 18 MONTHS.
MARIA: DON’T THOSE COMPANIES,
AREN’T THEY TIED TO MACROSTORY
THE FEDERAL RESERVE IS
DEFENDING THIS ECONOMIC GROWTH
NARRATIVE THAT SUPPORTS RATE
HIKES YOU SAY YOUR DATA TELLS
A DIFFERENT STORY, IS THE ME
BACK TO THE FED YOU SAID THE
FED IF IT DOES ADD AGGRESSIVE
MOVES AS A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
EXPECTING, IT WILL TAKE US
INTO A RECESSION, SO WHAT DO
YOU SEE AS THE REALISTIC
NARRATIVE IN O 2022, AS
RELATES TO THE FED?
>> WELL THINK ABOUT 2014-’15,
16, THAT PERIOD SUPPOSED TO
HIKE 8 TIMES GOT HIT THE WITH
BREXIT, THEY ARE TO MAKE FOUR
TIMES ELECTION YEAR THEY
WAITED UNTIL AFTER 2015
ELECTION TO HIKE NOW MIDTERM
ELECTION COMING WITH REALLY A
LOT OF INFLATIONARY SLOWING
DOWN ECONOMY, AND PROMISING
RATE HIKES, THE PROBABILITY OF
THEM BASICALLY BEING FORCED TO
WALK BACK THESE RATE HIKES, IS
SO HIGH, SO YOUR GOLD MINERS
SILVER MINERS, I THINK GOLD
COULD BE 3,000 BY THE END OF
THE YEAR MAYBE FIRST QUARTER
NEXT YEAR BECAUSE THE END OF
THE DAY IF THEY WALK WALK
PROMISES OF HICKS WEAKENS
DOLLAR GIVES A BOOST TO OTHER
COMMODITY ASSETS HARD ASSETS.
>> THAT IS A BIG CALL GOLD AT
3,000 IT IS NOW 1901.
LARRY, QUICK, ARE YOU
INCREASING YOUR EXPOSURE TO
GOLD AS WELL?
>> YES WE’VE BEEN THE LAST
THREE MONTHS, GOLD HAS BEEN
REALLY CAPITULATION WE HAVE
TRADE ALERTS GO OUT WHATSAPP
BLOOMBERG CHAT HURPZ OF
INSTITUTIONAL INVESTORS, 23
COUNTRIES, FOLLOWED SILVER
MINERS HARD ASSET PLACE WILL
BENEFIT FROM A FADE HAS TO