It may surprise you, but right now there is something even more important and higher priority
in international politics than the coronavirus pandemic.
We are talking about the negotiations for the new nuclear deal with Iran.
And why do we say that this is more important than the pandemic?
Because the negotiations are taking place in Vienna, the capital of Austria.
And Austria was the first country in the European Union to decree a new confinement just prior
to Christmas.
All the people confined.
Businesses closed.
And, in the midst of all this, do you think that the negotiations were also cancelled?
Well, no, precisely the opposite.
Because, as we are going to see in this video, there is a lot at stake in this matter.
That is why, despite the confinement and the thousand and one new variants of the coronavirus,
Vienna is ready to do all it can so that the parties can reach an agreement.
On one side there is Iran, and on the other, a whole group of countries and you can probably
already guess which ones.
We are talking about the European Union as a whole, Germany and the five permanent members
of the Security Council.
If you follow VisualPolitik, you surely already know these five.
And if not, repeat after me: Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom and the United
States.
Now, there is a slight problem here.
Because one of these countries has really messed up with the previous nuclear agreement
with Iran.
You know who I'm talking about, don't you?
Exactly!
(Donald Trump pulls US out of Iran nuclear deal.
FT)
And, because of that, we are now experiencing a kind of groundhog day.
Judge for yourselves.
The year is 2015: The United States is negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran.
The year is 2021: The United States is negotiating a nuclear deal with Iran.
And okay, there are some things that don't change, but there are many others that do.
Because the situation we are in today is very different from 2015.
And I'm not talking about the pandemic.
We're talking about time, or, rather, the lack of time.
Check it out:
(In its quarterly report on September 7, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
reported that Iran was enriching uranium at levels significantly higher than allowed under
the 2015 nuclear deal.
USIP)
You heard correctly: between one and two months.
As you know, when we talk about uranium enrichment, levels matter.
We already explained this in a past VisualPolitik video that I’ll link in the description.
Well, Iran has been enriching uranium above 60%.
That is a lot.
At the time of making this video, Iran didn't have a nuclear bomb... but that possibility
is getting closer.
But why is it so bad for Iran to get a nuclear bomb?
What are the challenges in negotiating this deal?
And why is the new nuclear deal so important, and is there really any reason to think it
will work this time?
Today we are going to answer these questions, but first, let's look at some history.
(IRAN'S NUCLEAR PROGRAM IN TWO MINUTES)
In other VisualPolitik videos we have already covered how Iran's nuclear program has developed
many times.
And we have also told you about the 2015 nuclear deal.
If you want to go deeper into these issues, just take a look at our channel.
And if you don't have time, don't worry, because we're going to give you a summary right now.
– It’s 1957.
Under the Shah government, Iran inaugurates its nuclear program.
Who is helping them?
Exactly, their best friend of the moment, the United States.
– It’s 1979.
The revolution: the Shah falls and Iran becomes an Islamic republic.
– So we have the Iran we all know today: a very conservative regime with a fixed idea:
to create an atomic bomb.
That is why it relaunched its nuclear program in 1982.
– 2002.
The IAEA discovers these megalomaniacal nuclear aspirations.
International sanctions follow.
– 2003.
Iran is willing to negotiate, and even goes so far as to temporarily halt its nuclear
program.
– Then 2006 arrives, and uranium enrichment levels rise again.
In addition, Iran prevents outside observers from accessing its nuclear power plants.
– It’s 2013: the United States and Iran begin formal negotiations on a possible nuclear
deal.
– Two years later, white smoke: we have the agreement.
It establishes the maximum permitted level of enrichment – below 4% – and the amount
of uranium Iran can stockpile.
Everything indicates that the world is safe: Iran is not going to create an atomic bomb.
– But then 2018 arrives, and one fine day, the protagonist of the moment, Donald Trump,
says: I'm going to withdraw the United States from the nuclear agreement.
And why is he doing that?
Because Israel has been whispering in his ear that Iran is in breach of the agreement.
– The United States pulls out of the agreement and reimposes sanctions on Iran, sinking the
country's economy.
Iran once again enriches uranium beyond the permitted limit.
– Then it’s 2021, the new President of the United States, Joe Biden, sets himself
the goal of fixing the whole mess that Donald Trump had made.
He decides to resume negotiations with Iran.
And this is when we get to Vienna.
But why would Iran want to negotiate with the United States again?
To what extent is it possible to reach a new agreement now?
And how real is the threat of Iran developing a nuclear bomb?
Let’s check that out right now!
(WHAT DO WE WANT?
A DEAL!)
Well, after this brief tour through history, let's go back to Vienna.
Remember who our protagonists are:
China, Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union and Iran.
It is true that we are talking about very different countries, which often do not get
along well with each other.
But in this case, they all want the same thing: a nuclear agreement.
And why do we say this?
Let's take it one step at a time.
If you recall, Iran is not the happiest country in the world.
Yes, it has almost as much oil reserves as Saudi Arabia.
It is also the country with the second highest natural gas reserves in the world, behind
only Russia.
Quite an energy superpower.
But, these resources are of little use to it because it can barely sell them.
Here is the main reason:
(U.S. will sanction whoever purchases Iran's oil: official.
Reuters)
In other words, it is not only that the United States does not buy oil from Iran.
It also makes it very difficult for other countries to do so.
Therefore, Iranian exports are regulated by sanctions.
And, in turn, these sanctions are closely related to Iran's nuclear program.
And these sanctions have left Iran's economy in tatters.
You know another thing that’s not helping Iran's economy?
That's right, the coronavirus pandemic.
And, of course, the regime is doing everything it can to deal with these problems.
How?
Through a method as old as it is foolproof.
Listen up:
(Iran bans newspaper that linked supreme leader to poverty.
CTV News)
Yes, we are talking about censorship.
I'm sorry if you were expecting something else.
And you will probably say, okay, maybe Iran doesn't care much about its population.
But can it really continue to develop in the midst of this economic chaos and trade blockades?
Obviously not.
In fact, according to an official Iranian report, if sanctions are maintained, inflation
will reach 65% in the next five years.
That is a catastrophic level.
And the solution seems easy: sanctions should be lifted, right?
In fact, when they were lifted with the previous nuclear deal, Iran's GDP jumped 14 points.
But, for this to happen again, Iran would have to stop playing with atoms and start
negotiating, as it did back in 2015.
And why would the rest of the countries want to negotiate with Iran?
There are at least three reasons.
One: nobody wants Iran to have an atomic bomb.
Two, it is in Biden's interest to chalk up a positive point, because he has been going
around for a while now, putting on a circus and looking like a clown.
It would be good for him to be remembered for something good.
And three, if this happens, many other countries would also benefit.
Because remember, the sanctions have repercussions beyond Iran's borders.
I’m referring to this:
(Oil Rises as Trump Issues 'Biting' Sanctions on Iran.
WSJ)
It's VisualPolitik 101: the lower the oil supply, the higher the prices.
So, if you thought this negotiation thing had nothing to do with you, remember Iran
the next time you pass by a gas station.
By the way, speaking of VisualPolitik... this is a fantastic moment to remind you that you
can be part of our project.
How?
By joining our patreon.
Not only will you be able to access exclusive merchandising.
In addition, you will be able to read our weekly newsletter where we tell you a lot
of things that do not appear in the videos.
Weekly political analysis that you won't find anywhere else.
And you will also be helping to make this project possible.
But let's get back to our story because it’s not only about oil.
We're also talking about all kinds of companies that might want to do business with Iran,
but they're not willing to disappear from the rest of the international market.
Because remember, if you're a company, under the current sanctions you can either operate
in the United States, or you do business in Iran.
Put another way: everybody wants a nuclear deal.
So could it go through?
We're going to look at that right now.
(THE FINE PRINT)
As we have seen, all the countries that are meeting in Vienna right now are interested,
at least in principle, in reaching a new nuclear agreement.
But do you think this is a guarantee that there will be an agreement?
Well, let me tell you a story.
Once upon a time there was a crab, a swan and a fish, and the three of them decided
to pull a cart.
What happened?
The swan was a flier, so he pulled toward the sky.
The fish pulled the cart towards the sea, and the crab pulled the cart to one side.
And despite all their efforts, the cart stayed where it was.
In other words, what could happen now with the Iran nuclear deal is as old as humanity
itself.
If each country tugs in the direction of their own interest, let's see how long it takes
for the whole thing to break.
Add to this the fact that negotiations are taking place at a very, very slow pace.
The United States and its allies want to return to the 2015 nuclear deal without changing
a comma.
The typical "Hey, look, I'm sorry, let’s all pretend Trump wasn't President of the
United States and... we're back to business as usual."
But for Iran, this option is unthinkable.
Either a new deal is made, or the conversation is over.
And what Iran is asking for, at the outset, doesn't seem so far-fetched either.
Basically, it wants assurances that the US will not pull out of the deal again.
But of course, it is very difficult for the United States to commit to something for life
because... democracy is like that.
And even more so, in a matter as sensitive as a nuclear agreement.
Obviously, there are also many technical details to be resolved.
But if you think Iran is the only one who is not happy with its partners, you would
be mistaken.
(Iran nuclear draft proposals 'not a reasonable basis' for deal: France.
Al Arabiya)
And it's not just that.
Maybe you were thinking that Iran's delegates are negotiating all these conditions directly
with the United States.
But that’s not the case, because these two have such a bad relationship that they are
lucky if they can look each other in the eye.
So, the negotiations are indirect, and the rest of the countries have been left to mediate.
Iran meets with France, then France passes on the information to the United States, but
in the meantime Iran is already meeting with Russia and China and may have changed its
mind completely.
Rarely has high politics been so close to sounding like a game of telephone.
And you can imagine the rest.
More intrigue than in Game of Thrones, disinformation campaigns and, above all, a lot of poker faces.
Because in this multi-handed battle, it is in the interest of each party to present itself
as being stronger than it actually is.
For Iran, for example, the strategy is to drag out the negotiations.
In this way, the current government, led by Ebrahim Raisi, is distancing itself from the
previous president Rouhani.
Rouhani was the one who negotiated the previous agreement, and you know that everything started
very well, but ended quite badly when Trump withdrew from the agreement.
That's why many accused Rouhani of being too quick and gullible.
These are two sins that Iran cannot allow to be repeated.
What's more, before coming to power, the current president Raisi was one of the main detractors
of the 2015 nuclear deal.
So what is he doing in Vienna now?
Basically, you need to accept that it is money, not nuclear aspirations, that keeps the world
moving.
And if, in order for sanctions to be lifted, Iran has to stop dreaming of bombs, the least
it can do is consider this option.
So don't be fooled by the slow pace of the negotiations.
And be in no doubt that the Iranian regime is taking them very seriously.
Here is the proof.
Tell me, does the name Ali Bagheri ring a bell?
Probably not.
But I'll tell you one thing: if the Vienna negotiations go well for Iran, you're going
to see him more often.
Bagheri is the new head of the Iranian negotiating delegation.
He is an experienced politician, comes from an important family and enjoys the confidence
of President Raisi.
But he is also – and many analysts forget this – a relative of Iran's supreme leader
himself.
Yes, that omnipotent position which is so important for the country that it is not elected
democratically, just in case.
To give you an idea: in the last 40 years, Iran has had eight presidents and only two
supreme leaders.
Well, Ali Bagheri is the brother of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's son-in-law.
And okay they are not blood relatives.
But even this kinship is enough to deduce that everything that is negotiated in Vienna
is agreed to the millimeter with the highest authority in Iran.
So, if Bagheri gets a beneficial agreement, he will almost certainly climb a dozen positions
on the Iranian political ladder.
However, by now, you know that reaching a new nuclear deal is not as easy as it seems.
Don't forget that while the delegates are meeting in Austria, the United States continues
to impose its sanctions, and Iran continues to enrich uranium to unequivocal levels.
It’s clear that, yes, this is serious, but I don't want to scare you either.
While it is true that Iran could have stockpiled a lot of enriched uranium in a very short
time, it would still take one to two years to build its nuclear bomb.
So I hope that after watching this video, you don’t start digging a backyard bunker.
Firstly, Iran doesn't have the bomb yet.
And secondly, as we've already told you: Iran wants deterrence, not destruction.
So don't panic.
At this point, there is only one thing left to tell you.
Because there is one more player, which we have not yet told you about, but which is
very much against the Vienna negotiations.
We are talking about Israel.
But this is something we will examine in the next video in this series.
So don't forget to subscribe to VisualPolitik, because we have new videos every week.
And in the meantime, it’s your turn to answer some questions: Do you think a deal can be
reached that will be good for everyone?
What will happen if the negotiations end in nothing?
Are you worried about Iran's nuclear program?
You can leave your answers in the comments.