of Myanmar is on the brink of
becoming a failed state.
For three years, the nation of
54 million people has been
embroiled in an escalating civil
war between the military junta
and hundreds of pro-democracy
militias, ethnic armies and
local defense forces.
Civilians are suffering.
The united nations estimates
more than 18.5 million people
desperately need humanitarian
assistance, thousands are
fleeing the country.
A 2021 military coup brought to
an abrupt end me's move toward
democracy.
The widespread peaceful protests
that followed were put down by
the junta with a brutal
crackdown.
Scores of opposition protesters
fled the cities for the
mountainous jungles that make up
much of the country.
Pro-democracy militias and armed
ethnic groups united with the
common goal of overthrowing the
junta.
Last month, rebel forces took
control of a key economic hub
that was responsible for $1
billion in trade last year.
It is among the latest in a long
line of junta defeats over the
last six months that has left
resistance groups in control of
a significant part of the
country.
Earlier, I spoke with aye min
that, a burmese-american
journalist, about the current
situation in Myanmar.
Aye min that: Fighting has
really escalated in Myanmar
since October of 2023, where, we
-- Myanmar saw large resistance
forces coalesce and foreman
Elisha -- form and ally ship and
launch a coordinated attack
against the military on multiple
fronts.
And since then, major gains were
made, especially along the
border regions.
Allow major trade routes.
In some cases trade towns and
, trade routes were able to be
shut down.
Although the military has
regained control of some of
these areas.
They have been dramatically
weakened.
John: Who are these groups
fighting the junta military?
Who are they and what do they
want?
Aye min that: So there's
various groups that are fighting
the military.
There are what are called
ethnic, armed organizations
which are made of ethnic groups
that were essentially thrown in
the country together for the
first time through British
colonization and have a long
history of being individual
political entities and have been
fighting for Independence, in
some cases for legal rights, and
in some cases for complete
separation from the country of
Myanmar proper.
In addition there are multiple
groups that have come to being
since the coup, mostly of
farmers and students and other
young people from the ethnic
majority group who, since the
coup had turned to violent
revolution to negate the effects
of the coup and try and turn the
country back toward democracy.
John: Is there enough common
ground among the groups beyond
defeating the military junta
that that if they were to
prevail, they'd be able to
establish a government?
Aye min thant: Right now there
is a common enemy in the
military, but it's unclear that
if the military were to fall
tomorrow that these groups would
be able to coalesce into a
formal government or even
interim government in order to
lead the country back into a
unified whole.
On one hand there is a civilian
shadow government that has
formed since the coup, but they
don't necessarily have the buy
in of on a number of ethnic
groups and organizations that
felt that their parties, even
when civilian government was in
control, but they really
respected, and saw various
ethnic groups as a equals.
John: This fight has been going
on for about three years.
What has been the effect on the
civilian population?
Aye min that: The U.N. Refugee
agency are estimates over 2.5
million people have now been
displaced internally in the
country since the beginning of
the coup, and over 100,000
people have been displaced into
neighboring countries.
And that's, of course, not
counting nearly 1 million
rohingya refugees who were
displaced, in previous waves of
military violence.
John: How much support are the
displaced people not only within
Myanmar, but who fled Myanmar,
how much support are they
getting?
Aye min that: Various
humanitarian organizations are
still trying to function and
distribute aid.
Unfortunately in order for them
to operate, they are forced to
collaborate with the military.
In many cases the military
prevents the organizations from
going to certain areas, citing
security concerns there the
surrounding countries Thailand,
, India, Lao and China don't
provide very much, refugees, if
any at all.
Thailand does not recognize
refugees as a class.
The same holds true largely of
India as well, where, the Modi
administration is not happy with
the amount of refugees coming
into the country.
Bangladesh has closed its
borders as much as it can.
The border near Loa and China
has also been, really on guard
since covid, and has largely not
been trying to accept refugees
as well.
John: The united nations has
described the human rights
situation in Myanmar as a
never-ending nightmare.
Who is committing these?
Is it one side over the other
committing human rights
violations?
Aye min that: According to
monitoring organizations, the
vast, vast majority of human
rights abuses are being
committed by the military.
The military is engaging in
extrajudicial killings.
Over 50,000 people have been
killed.
Since the coup.
Either through torture,
extrajudicial killings,
airstrikes, arson.
The military also engages in
airstrikes on largely protected
places like schools, hospitals
and religious sites.
There is a weaponization of
arson, burning down of villages,
rape as a weapon of war.
And lately, we're also seeing a
lot of forced recruitment, by
the military.
On the other hand, we are also
seeing, human rights abuses from
the resistance side.
There have been reports of
extrajudicial killings,
especially the people who have
been accused of being informants
for the militaries or people
seen as collaborators who are
not necessarily combatants.
John: What does the road ahead
look like?
Is it possible that one side or
another could prevail?
Or is this just going to be a
deadlock?
Aye min that: The fighting has
been going on for three years,
but we've really seen a lot of
big moves, in the last six
months despite the fact that the
conscription law has existed for
many years at this this is the
point.
First time in history that it's
been used.
Analysts have taken this as a
sign that this means that the
military is quite desperate to
try to fill its ranks,
especially as they are starting
to lose more and more battles.
What started off as largely
young, untrained people, many of
whom grew up in cities and have
never touched a weapon, but
people who are largely farmers,
using homemade weapons and
commercial drones have now
turned into pretty battle
hardened troops who have gotten
their hands on to military
weaponry.
John: Aye min that, thank you
very much.
Aye min that: Thank you for
having me.