Who's your my friends?
There are severe stresses in the silver markets,
there are stresses and the global economy.
We haven't talked about this today but the electricity
issue continues to be a serious problem in Europe.
We've seen a record collapse in net worth that has never been seen before.
Not even during the lockdown quarter of 2020 and sooner
or later the fit is going to Pivot for one last time.
And the silver markets have been wacky in ways that they've never
been before and rather than just State superlatives like that.
I'll show you some very strange numbers.
I'd have never occurred before in the silver paper markets but that are
occurring now in conjunction with records in the physical markets.
And so while we don't see much movement in the spot price
just yet there are a lot of things boiling Under the surface.
What we are seeing essentially is very high short interest in the SLV. Paper silver ETF,
at the same time the same parties that are short SL V.
ZF R long Futures net for the first time since I believe 2018, which is very rare situation.
Why would you be short as LV?
But long silver Futures,
I think I can explain it s fed.
It is about to move from about forty five billion dollars in quantitative
tightening per month to about 95 billion. Quantity,
type in four months and Miss is as long-term rates continue to rise and short-term
rates even faster. So who is going to buy all the bonds of the fittest selling Santa,
maybe this Corridor saw an all-time record reduction in net
worth of households as price inflation continues to rage.
On which means this my friends.
I can't give you a date.
When the markets, the silver and gold markets are going to turn around,
but I can give you a trigger and that is when the FED is forced to make its final pivot,
the move into precious metals,
will be a sight to see. Exactly.
When that happens,
will be when the banking system forces it because either
they bring rates back down to zero immediately.
Or the entire banking structure that they have built up since 1971 Falls and disintegrates,
and you know what? They're going to choose the banking system,
as a result will be saved in dollar terms.
However,
dollar will not be able to buy much of anything.
Once they are all bailed out for the last time.
So I wish nominal Health to the banking system may
be able to buy and sell dollars at your Leisure.
And at your heart's content.
All the real economy is denominated in gold and silver ounces.
Overall,
the first gold pour out of his mind is scheduled for Mid 2023 and considering the
increase of prices that have been ongoing for a year and a half. Two years now,
it's pretty impressive.
That fortune has been able to keep this project in budget and able
to keep their costs in line despite the inflationary environment.
This is a chart I got from apparently short exchange.com.
Calm because the in the top right corner there,
I don't know what these translucent. Little bars are accept this line here,
this candle line shows the cost to borrow SLV shares,
which was pretty constant from June to about late, August, 20 22.
But then all the sudden starting in September.
The cost to borrow an SL v, share Rose to about seven percent.
And that is where it has stayed ever since that means the demands of borrow SLV.
Short. It is at a high who is doing that.
What is going on?
Why is silver being shorted wise SLV? Specifically being shorted. Now,
when the price is already solo this chart of sov Holdings, gives a little bit of a clue.
See when Silver Falls when the price Falls,
the supply of silver in sov tends to fall along with it.
Not one for one but It is a tendency for silver to be redeemed from the sov fun when the price of
Silver Falls and that is to keep the SLV fund and the Futures price tag pegged
together when Silver Falls. The idea is that the authorized participants in SLV.
Buy the shares that are sold in a redeem them for silver, take silver out of the funds.
So there's less silver in the funds of each share is worth
comparatively more as the supply of Silver Falls.
And they tweak it every day to make sure that the SLV
fund and the Futures price is pretty much in line.
They've been able to redeem a be about 4,000 tons since 2022.
So that has been relatively successful. But as you see here,
the black line,
the tendency of sov is to always rise in terms of its Holdings and this Slaughter of Silver's.
The beginning of 2222 has brought down the silver Holdings.
This will be really not by much in cumulatively. Certainly,
the trend line since the funds founding.
Is still up. We see here. Some since 2011,
when the Holdings were about 12,000 tons.
And until,
let's see, the March 20 20 bottom, it was about the same.
If this is about the same level as that sort of the funding really move,
it all from $50 to about $11 and all of a sudden in 2020, it skyrocketed.
And here is the peak at Silver. Squeeze this Soldier squeeze Peak at around 21,000 tons,
so Has been some Redemption, but not much.
You know, why would who are the ones that short SLV?
They are the bullion banks that are in charge of SLV and now there's
something else about the believe makes the issue know.
And that is that the silver cots. The commitment of Traders are all totally whacked out.
You see here,
the red line here. This is producers.
It is positive for the first time since I think 2019.
These were the only times back here when the producers were net long.
Meaning above the zero line, this line,
Just constantly below zero. Almost constantly is barely ever above zero Market is again,
in the last time that it was about 20,
you have silver bottoming out here. It was a wasn't a short-term process,
but it wouldn't take that long either it bottomed out for about in nine months.
It looks like
Here we can zoom into the individual shorter's one is producers.
They have a record, low amount of shorts record,
low and in terms of net they are net long.
So this does not take Kate take into account for a Long's,
their net, sure only 25,000 contracts. These are the producers of silver is never been this low.
They are not hedging at all and now this is an inverted chart. It is.
Silver Futures swap dealers, use of bullion Banks.
The short positions - the long position. So if it's negative, then you have a net, long position,
the bullion Banks, therefore, our net long silver on the Futures Market about 20 1787,
Contracting their net long. So then why are they shorting SLV? It's like this.
There is silver available on the comics. However,
we have seen that the supply of registered silver has fallen hard since silver squeeze over.
Hundred million ounces. And so the free float of silver on the konex is falling.
And so, if the bullion banks that are in charge of SLV,
take more silver from the comics, they risk, the risk draining,
the comex of registered Supply.
So where else can you get physical silver without draining the physical Supply out of the
crow makes you can get it from London where almost all of the SLV billion is held
and how do you get silver out of SLV out of Then you pull down the silver price,
people sell their sov at a discount,
you take those into a basket and you redeem the baskets if you're an authorized participant to do
that and then you can get physical silver from there at which point you
can take that physical silver and sell it to the Boolean markets,
which are going for a thirty to forty percent premium and almost all coins.
And how do you prevent a short squeeze on yourself?
Or how do you prevent bankruptcy on yourself by massively
Schrodinger salvi when SOB's already?
Hello.
You go long,
the silver Futures Contract to hedge yourself,
which is why the balloon banks are now net long in the silver.
His contract, but massively short on SLV.
It makes sense, it protects them.
And what it means is that physical silver will continue to drain your out of the ETF.
But if silver prices reverse and the ETF starts to climb
again and the only way they can get physical.
Silver is to continue to drain the comex and lbma without draining
the ETFs which is dangerous for the free-floating silver Supply.
Okay so since 2011 we have here this rectangle I drew in
This is the silver Spike, 250 here. You can see there's two lines here,
there's that light grey line, which is the spot price and the dark blue line,
which is the physical price can see here.
This is the only time when the grey line overtakes the blue
line you have a - premium that doesn't even make sense.
You can have a negative premium but it physical silver was actually cheaper
here than paper silver. So here back in 2011, during that Spike 250,
there was Zero demand for physical silver above paper, silver it.
Even exist. And in 2013, I wrote here lag Spike, you have a falling spot price,
except why do you have a declining premium here? Simply because it's a lag,
the physical silver markets,
they don't adjust their prices as quickly as the spot Market does which addresses prices
every second. The physical price cannot be adjusted in that way so quickly.
So there's always a lag to when the spot price Falls,
when a physical price Falls and that spike in the premium here,
shows that lack of the same thing at Bear Market bottomed in the
gold and silver markets at the end of 2015. Beginning of 2016,
you had a falling silver price but the physical markets, didn't fall as fast. So you had a spike,
which eventually abated here for looks like four years until you get the 2020 and then you have
a true monetary panic over here during The covid, Awakening? I would call it. And then,
as the spot price, climb back up the premium collapse to about 34,
Second over here is silver squeeze.
And since then, the premium has climbed from three from about 32 .5,
3 percent to Now 37 percent.
It hit a high of 40 percent and the spot prices recovered a little bit since then,
but not much worse up 37%.
So you have these humongous premiums that are in the physical markets
that the bullion banks are trying to Satisfy and take advantage of,
without taking more physical silver out of the lbma, and they want to do it from the ETF,
because that won't affect the float Supply.
And that is why I believe they are short, sov, and long silver Futures. And so,
the point being here,
how is this premium Spike different from all other premium spikes?
Well,
these were either brief monetary crisis or a lag in the physical
markets that was not expressing in this Spot markets.
But now I think this from Silver screens to now signifies
real physical demand which is what is inspiring.
The bullion Banks to go short SLV to redeem that silver and send it to the bullion Market.
Who's your my friends,
there are severe stresses in the silver markets.
There are stresses and the global economy.
We haven't talked about this today but the electricity
issue continues to be a serious problem in Europe.
We've seen a record collapse in net worth that has never been seen before,
not even during the lockdown quarter of 2020 and Sooner
or later the fit is going to Pivot for one last time.