Geoff: Three years into the
pandemic, cases,
hospitalizations and deaths are
all declining.
But questions remain about new
variants and whether some people
may need a spring booster shot.
William brangham is here with an
update on the state of covid in
the U.S..
Correspondent: Geoff, it's worth
noting good news when it occurs,
and on covid there is some.
The U.S. Avoided the worst of
the winter surge and dust from
the virus are the lowest they
have been since the early weeks
of the pandemic.
More than 1700s American still
died last week because of covid.
For the elderly,
immunocompromised, and those
still struggling with the little
understood long covid, this
pandemic is hardly in the
rearview mirror.
We are joined again by an
epidemiologist.
She is at the university of
Texas and she writes a very
informative sub stack called
your local epidemiologist.
Great to have you back.
What is your take on where we
are in the trajectory.
Deaths are down, but there is
this subvariant dominant in this
country.
Where are we?
>> That is a really good
question.
I think we are somewhere in
between a full-blown emergency
like we saw in the beginning of
2020 and somewhere before
endemic.
We are not at a state where we
know what this virus is going to
do, and this virus is not being
predictable.
Like you said all metrics are
nose diving right now, and that
is good news.
We expect that to happen with
spring because of warmer
weather, less holiday
gatherings, but covid continues
to do its thing and mutate.
It is what viruses do to
survive, and we are paying
specific attention to two
offshoots in India and U.K.
Causing disruption and smaller
waves.
This does have the potential to
disrupt a quiet spring in the
U.S., but it is too early to
know for sure given our complex
immunity landscape.
Geoff: It has been 6 to 7 months
since the bivalent boosters
became available, which is
plenty of time for a lot of
people to of lost some of their
protection.
You wrote about this today.
Is there good evidence for a
spring booster?
>> I think it depends on what
you define as good evidence.
It is really difficult for us to
know how much each booster helps
or does not help.
And to get a grip on it
prospectively.
What we know for sure is
protection is robust for younger
and healthier people keeping an
eye on the hospital, which is
great news.
The concern is for immuno
optimized and older adults with
comorbidities.
Their immune systems are not as
strong and it is being pulled in
multiple directions.
This is a group where we want to
avoid an infection in order to
prevent hospitalization and
death, and we know these
antibodies that prevent
infection wane quickly and last
six months.
Geoff: In elderly Americans,
those are increasingly the
people who were still dying of
covid.
Is that right?
>> That is correct.
The last statistic was 90% of
deaths are among those over 65
years of old.
96% of hospitalizations are
among older adults with at least
one comorbidity.
Because again, there immune
systems are taxed.
The good news is very few people
are in the hospital today who
are up-to-date on vaccines.
The vaccines are working.
The essential question is is
this going to change in time and
what do we do proactively.
Geoff: I want to touch on long
covid, this still mysterious
ailment so many people are
suffering from.
Who is getting it and why?
>> You are right, there are
millions of Americans out of
work, suffering with very few
treatment options.
We are starting to get a better
grip on what causes covid.
It seems to be several factors
like a lingering virus or people
harbor the virus in their
tissue, which can create damage.
Other people get lung covid
driven by the immune system.
Antibodies start attacking the
body itself.
And then there is immune
dysregulation.
Even if somebody clears the
virus, the immune system is off
balance, so other dormant
viruses reactivate and drive
chronic symptoms.
Lung: It is an umbrella term for
several causes, and this is
important to know, because it
will allow us to understand how
we can target treatments.
Geoff: In the few seconds we
have left, all those treatments,
there are some that show some
promise on lung covid?
>> There are about 300 clinical
trials right now, and the
results are starting to trickle
in.
We have seen a drug reduce lung
covid about 40%.
Paxlovid reduces it a bit as
well, about 25%.
We need more answers.
Geoff: Thank you so much for
being here.