CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER IN MANOA. THANK YOU
JOE.
THANKS A LOT.
I AM HERE IN MANOA.
AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER STANDING WITH
ERIC LAU.
SOME OF NUMBERS CAME OUT FROM
THE 2:00 P.M. UPDATE.
INTENSITY.
WHETHER WE GOT THAT INTENSITY,
125-MILES PER HOUR, FINALLY,
CATEGORY 3.
YOU LOOKED AT ME LIKE I'M
CRAZY.
BECAUSE YOU SAID IT'S REALLY
NOT THAT MUCH OF A DIFFERENCE.
FROM THE 130-MILE PER HOUR
WINDS CATEGORY 4.
KNEEL, WHAT'S GOING ON WITH
INTENSITY AND WHY YOUR
REACTION WAS THAT WAY.
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS DAO
CREASED A LITTLE BIT 5 MILES
PER HOUR.
IT IS STILL 125 MILES PER HOUR
SYSTEM.
YOU KNOW, IT'S STILL PACKS
THAT TRIPLE THREAT OF IMPACTS
THAT WE COULD FACE A CROSS THE
STATE WITH HEAVY RAIN, FLASH
HIGH SURF.
WE REALLY CAN'T LET OUR GUARD
DOWN AT THIS POINT.
ANY WAY AT THIS POINT TO
KNOW IF THIS INDICATES THE
DOWNWARD TREND OR WE HAD A
VIEWER WHO WROTE, AND ASKED,
EXPECTATION IS FOR
HURRICANE LANE TO CONTINUE
TOWARDS THAT RIDGE OF UPPER
LEVEL SHEER.
WHICH WOULD HELP TO DECREASE
THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM
OVER TIME, EASER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.
HOWEVER, WE CAN'T EVER RULE
OUT THAT THE SYSTEM COULD
INTENSIFY.
SO WE DO STILL EXPECT THAT WE
CAN -- NEVER RULE OUT
REINFENCEFICATION.
ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.
SHEER COULD JUST POTENTIITLY
MAYBE BE NOT AS STRONG.
THAT'S WHERE THEN SENIORTY
COMES IN.
REALLY DEPENDS ON HOW MUCH
SHEER IS GOING TO IMPACT THE
THE SYSTEM AND BY HOW MUCH
IT'S GOING TO IMPACT THE
SYSTEM.
BECAUSE IT DID COME TOWN TO
125, THE ASSUMPTION IS THAT IT
IS STARTING TO ENTER SHEER.
RIGHT.
THAT'S THE THINKING RIGHT NOW.
IT'S GOING TO BE CONTINUING ON
TO THE WEST, TO THE NORTHWEST
MOVING INTO THAT REGION OF
SHEER.
HELPING TO DECREASE THE
INTENSITY OF LANE.
HERE'S THE THING.
SLOWED DOWN FROM 7 MILES PER
HOUR FORWARD MOTION TO 6 MILES
PER HOUR.
WHICH JUST PROLONGS IT.
RIGHT.
SO IT CONTINUES TO MOVE
NORTHWEST ALTHOUGH STILL AT A
REALLY SLOW RATE.
THAT DURATION AND THAT
PROLONGED PERIOD OF TIME WHERE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND ALL OF THAT
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS WAS
STATE, ALL OF THAT MOISTURE IS
JUST GOING TO BE REALLY JUST
FOCUSED IN ON THE STATE, GOING
TO BRING THAT HEAVY THREAT I
RAINFALL AND POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING MANY PARTS OF THE
STATE.
ALL OF THAT MOISTURE
INTERACTING WITH THE TERRAIN
ENHANCES THE SHOWERS AND
RAINFALL LEADING TO
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODING CONDITIONS.
2:00 UPDATE INDICATED
CURRENT POSITION OF LANE.
AND IT WAS 190-MILES
SOUTHWEST OF KAUNA.
WE HAVE THE -- SOUTHWEST OF
KONA.
WE HAVE THE TROPICAL STORM
WINDS CENTER 140-MILE.
YOU SAID IT DOES NOT PUT
THE KONA COAST IN THE CLEAR.
RIGHT.
WE EXPECT HURRICANE LANE TO
CONTINUE MOVING NORTH.
SO DEPENDING ON DISTANCE,
BETWEEN KONA AND THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM, WE COULD STILL BE
WITHIN THAT RAID YOWS OF
140-MILES OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
CAL FORCE WINDS.
SO REALLY, CANDIDATE LET OUR
GUARD DOWN YET UNTIL LANE
REALLY IS OUT OF OUR REGION.
I DID HAVE ANOTHER VIEWER
QUESTION.
AND THAT WAS DO YOU THINK THAT
LANE WILL MAKE LANDFALL?
WE HAVE THE, PUT OUT THE CONE
OF UNCERTAINTY BECAUSE LANE
CAN BE ANYWHERE WITHIN THE
PERIOD.
SO IT COULD EITHER BE RIGHT OR
TO THE LEFT.
THERE'S ALSO SOME CASES WHERE
IT COULD BE OUTSIDE OF THE
CONE.
SO WE CAN NEVER RULE THAT OUT.
THERE IS WHAT WE LOOK AT.
STATISTICALLY FOR ABOUT 2/3 OF
THE TIME THAT THE HURRICANE
WOULD BE WITHIN THE CONE.
SO JUST STATISTICALLY, THAT'S
WHERE WE EXPECT IT TO BE.
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT THAT EXTRA
ONE-THIRD WAR IT COULD BE
OUTSIDE THE CONE.
33% CHANCE IT COULD BE
OUTSIDE.
DEFINITELY.
ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY.
THAT'S WHY WE'RE CLOSELY
MONDAYING PROXIMITY OF LANE.
-- MONITORING THE BEING
PROXIMITY OF LANE, THE SHEER,
HOW MUCH IT'S GOING TO WEAKEN
LANE THAT WILL DICTATE THE
TRACK OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
SEE YOU PROBABLY BY THE
5:00 UPDATE WHICH WILL GIVE
MORE DET DETAILED UPDATE ON
HURRICANE LANE AND IT WILL
ALSO PROVIDE UPDATED FORECAST
TRACK.