ONE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHERE
TROPICAL STORM SALLY IS
STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY
>>> FIRST, TODAY MARKS 50 DAYS
UNTIL THE ELECTION
50
AND 15 DAYS UNTIL THE FIRST
DEBATE
THE LATEST FOX NEWS NATIONAL
POLL SHOWS JOE BIDEN WITH A 5
POINT LEAD OVER DONALD TRUMP, 51
TO 46%
AND NEW BATTLEGROUND STATE
POLLING OUT THIS MORNING IS
SHOWING JOE BIDEN AND PRESIDENT
TRUMP STATISTICALLY TIED IN
SEVERAL STATES, FIRST IN ARIZONA
FOR THE LATEST POLL OF LIKELY
VOTERS FINDS BIDEN AHEAD BY 10,
52 TO 42%.
THE LATEST CBS NEWS YOUGOV POLL,
THIS ONE OF REGISTERED VOTERS
HAS BIDEN LEADING BY THREE
POINTS, 47 TO 44%.
A TIE THERE.
IN MINNESOTA, WHERE EARLY,
IN-PERSON VOTING BEGINS IN JUST
FOUR DAYS, THE CBS NEWS YOUGOV
POLL GIVES BIDEN A 9 POINT LEAD,
50 TO 41%.
AND THE LATEST "NEW YORK TIMES"
POLLS SHOWED BODY CAMERAS AHEAD.
IN WISCONSIN BIDEN HOLDS A FIVE
POINT LEAD 48 TO 43%
NEVADA BIDEN LEADS BY 4 POINTS,
46 TO 42
A STATISTICAL TIE.
IN NEW HAMPSHIRE BIDEN LEADS BY
3, 45 TO 42%, ANOTHER
STATISTICAL TIE.
>> A LOT OF CLOSE RACES HERE
EVERYBODY SAID IT WAS GOING TO
TIGHTEN UP AS WE GET CLOSER TO
THE END.
IT IS TIGHTENING UP.
FIRST OF ALL, MINNESOTA STILL,
EVEN THOUGH IT WAS -- HAS BEEN
THE EPICENTER OF SO MANY OF
THESE PROTESTS
MINNESOTA STILL IN THE BIDEN
CAMP IN TWO POLLS.
THAT HAS BEEN FOR FOUR YEARS NOW
A DREAM OF DONALD TRUMP’S
CAMPAIGN OR THREE AND A HALF
YEARS AT LEAST OF PICKING UP
MINNESOTA.
RIGHT NOW IT CERTAINLY DOESN’T
LOOK LIKE THAT’S GOING TO
HAPPEN
WISCONSIN ALSO, THESE POLLS OF
FIVE POINTS, A SERIES OF POLLS A
COUPLE DAYS BEFORE HAD BIDEN UP
BY 8 POINTS.
SO IT’S INTERESTING, ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST YOU HAVE JOE BIDEN
DOING, I THINK, BETTER THAN HIS
CAMPAIGN WOULD HAVE EXPECTED
BUT LET’S NOW GO TO THE SUNBELT
WHERE HE IS DOING -- I WON’T SAY
WORSE THAN EXPECTED BUT WHERE
HE’S UNDERPERFORMING BASED ON
WHERE HE IS IN THESE OTHER
SEPTEMBER POLLS AND THAT’S IN
FLORIDA AND ARIZONA.
IN ONE ARIZONA POLL IT’S TIGHT,
AS DAN RATHER WOULD SAY, AS A
TICK, AT ABOUT 3 POINTS.
AND THEN ANOTHER ONE THAT HAS
BIDEN UP BY 10 POINTS.
BUT THE UNDERLYING ISSUE HERE,
OF COURSE, THE LATINO VOTE
BIDEN IS UNDERPERFORMING AMONG
LATINOS.
STILL WAY AHEAD OF DONALD TRUMP.
BUT UNDERPERFORMING WHAT HILLARY
CLINTON DID JUST FOUR YEARS AGO.
THAT’S OBVIOUSLY A CONCERN TO
PEOPLE LIKE MICHAEL BLOOMBERG
AND OTHER LATINO LEADERS ARE
STARTING TO ADDRESS.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THE POLLING
OUT THERE, INCLUDING FLORIDA,
OUR POLL IN FLORIDA LAST WEEK
HAS THE RACE TIED OVERALL.
IF YOU LOOK INSIDE THE NUMBERS
IN FLORIDA AND THE POLLS YOU’RE
TALKING ABOUT FROM THE MIDWEST
THE CONSISTENT THING WE’VE BEEN
SEEING IS WHEREVER YOU ARE
THERE’S SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR
DONALD TRUMP RELATIVE TO 2016 IN
HIS SUPPORT AMONG WHITE VOTERS
WISCONSIN, YOU HAVE THIS POLL
FROM THE "NEW YORK TIMES" WHERE
IT’S A 5 POINT LEAD FROM BIDEN
OVERALL.
YOU LOOK INSIDE THOSE NUMBERS
AND SEE TRUMP IS WINNING WITH
NON-COLLEGE WHITE VOTERS IN
WISCONSIN BUT NOT THE SAME
MARGIN HE WON IN 2016 NOW NOT
JUST LOSING WHITE VOTERS WITH
COLLEGE DEGREES HE’S GETTING
LAPPED BY JOE BIDEN.
AS YOU MENTIONED, REALLY WHEN
YOU LOOK IN FLORIDA AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE BUT SOME DEGREE
WHEN YOU LOOK AT ARIZONA, THE
TRUMP CAMPAIGN HAS BEEN ABLE TO
FIND A BIT OF AN OFFSET TO THAT
EROSION.
IN FLORIDA THEY FOUND A BIG
OFFSET TO THAT EROSION
THAT IS THE SUPPORT AMONG CUBAN
AMERICAN VOTERS.
THAT’S OUR POLL LAST WEEK,
STATEWIDE IN FLORIDA, A BIG PART
OF THAT IS THE CUBAN AMERICAN
VOTE, THAT TRUMP LEADS BY 4
POINTS IN FLORIDA, STATEWIDE
AMONG HISPANIC VOTERS.
IN A STATE LIKE ARIZONA --
HISPANIC IS AN UMBRELLA TERM
THERE, HISPANIC IS NOT CUBAN
AMERICAN LIKE FLORIDA SO YOU
DON’T SEE TRUMP MAKING THE
STRIDES TO THE DEGREE HE DID IN
ARIZONA.
YOU HAVE OUR POLL THAT PUT BIDEN
AHEAD BY 5
ONE THING TO KEEP IN MIND ABOUT
ARIZONA, THAT’S A STATE TRUMP
WON BY THREE AND A HALF PO LOW N
BIDEN LEAD OF FOUR, A TRUMP
MARGIN OF THREE AND A HALF, THAT
NUMBER IS CLOSER THAN WISCONSIN,
A LOT OF OTHER STATES.
BUT IT’S STILL A SIGNIFICANT
JOURNEY FOR DEMOCRATS FROM WHERE
THEY FINISHED IN 2016.
THE MARGIN IN ARIZONA WAS NOT
LIKE WISCONSIN, PENNSYLVANIA, IT
WAS NOT A FRACTION OF A POINT,
IT WAS A SOLD THREE AND A HALF
POINT MARGIN
IT DOES SPEAK TO THE BROADER
NATIONAL TREND OF DONALD TRUMP
STILL WINNING AMONG WHITE VOTERS
BUT NOT NEARLY THE DEGREE HE DID
IN 2016.
>> SO MUCH OF WHAT I DO IS BASED
WHEN I LOOK AT THESE NUMBERS AND
GET NEAR ELECTIONS, IT’S BASED
ON MY EXPERIENCE AND SORT OF A
GUT INSTINCT ON HOW THINGS
BREAK.
YOU ACTUALLY STUDY THIS AND
ACTUALLY KNOW THE NUMBERS AND
KNOW THE PERCENTAGES LIKE THE
BACK OF YOUR HAND.
I’M CURIOUS, WHEN HE START, I
USUALLY TELL PEOPLE WHEN YOU
START SEEING CANDIDATES OVER
50% -- WELL, LET ME START THE
OTHER WAY.
WHEN YOU SEE INCUMBENTS UNDER
50%, TRADITIONALLY THAT HAS BEEN
A VERY BAD SIGN, ESPECIALLY AN
APPROVAL RATING THAT HASN’T
HAPPENED, OF COURSE, THAT HASN’T
BEEN A TRUISM SO MUCH OVER THE
PAST FIVE, SIX, SEVEN YEARS.
BUT WE’RE SEEING JOE BIDEN GET A
LOT OF 50%, 51%, 52%, EVEN THE
WISCONSIN POLL IT’S 51% TO 46%
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS IT INSTEAD OF
WHAT WE’D SEE FOUR YEARS AGO
TRUMP AT 41, HILLARY AT 43
WE’RE NOW SEE 50 TO 44%.
WHAT’S THE IMPORTANCE OF EITHER
ONE OF THESE CANDIDATES HAVING A
FIVE AS THE FIRST NUMBER IN
THESE POLLING RESULTS?
>> I THINK IT’S LIKELY MORE
SIGNIFICANT THIS TIME, IN 2016,
BECAUSE UNLIKE 2016, YOU DON’T
HAVE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES THAT
ARE REGISTERING AT FOUR, FIVE,
SIX PERCENT IN THE POLLING RIGHT
NOW.
AND YOU’RE NOT ON A TRAJECTORY
WHERE WE HAD HAD WHERE A GARY
JOHNSON COULD GET 4%
WHERE THE THIRD PARTY CANDIDATES
COULD GOBBLE UP ENOUGH OF THE
VOTE WHERE HILLARY CLINTON COULD
ONLY GET TO 48 NATIONALLY, TRUMP
COULD ONLY GET TO 46 NATIONALLY.
YOU’RE NOW LOOKING AT A
SITUATION WHERE ALL THE POLLING
IS SUGGESTING THAT THE VAST,
VAST MAJORITY OF THE VOTE IS
GOING TO BE A TWO-PARTY VOTE
IT’S EITHER BIDEN OR TRUMP
IN THAT CASE IF BIDEN HITS A
SITUATION LIKE HILLARY CLINTON
HIT IN 2016 WHERE HE DOESN’T
GROW MUCH BETWEEN NOW AND
ELECTION DAY, HILLARY CLINTON IN
OCTOBER OF 2016 STARTED NOVEMBER
2016 SHE WASN’T GROWING HER
SUPPORT.
SHE JUST KIND OF STAYED AT 48
AND ENDED UP AGAIN CREATING THAT
SITUATION WHERE TRUMP COULD WIN
THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE.
IF BIDEN IS OVER 50 AND YOU
DON’T HAVE A SIGNIFICANT THIRD
PARTY VOTE
THEN 50 PLUS 1% THAT’S A
TRADITIONAL ELECTION WOULD WIN
THAT
I THINK THERE’S SOME ROOM --
WHEN I LOOK IN THE NUMBERS
THERE’S SOME ROOM FOR GROWTH FOR
TRUMP.
I SAY THAT BECAUSE THERE’S A
DISCONNECT AND THAT’S BEEN
STEADY FOR A WHILE IN THE POLLS
OF TWO OR THREE POINTS IN TERMS
OF WHERE HE RUNS IN THE
HEAD-TO-HEAD WITH BIDEN AND
APPROVAL RATING, RUNNING AT 43%
AGAINST BIDEN IN WISCONSIN
HIS APPROVAL RATING IN WISCONSIN
IS 45%
SO THERE’S ROOM FOR THAT 43 TO
JUMP TO 45 TO MATCH THE APPROVAL
RATING
BUT LIKE YOU’RE SAYING WITH AN
ABSENCE OF THIRD PARTY