Well, good Monday morning, everyone.
I'm 10. Tampa Bay Chief Meteorologist
Bobby Deskins wanted to get you informed
here on Tropical Depression Three,
actually a second wave behind that as well.
But as of 11:00 o'clock this morning,
we now have Tropical Depression 3.
And you look at the satellite presentation
of this thing and it looks really well.
This is the visible satellite.
We've got winds at 35 mph.
39 and above.
It gets a name and that will likely
happen later today or tonight.
This looks pretty good and it's really close,
right? It's moving to the West at 21
mph pressures down to 1009 millibars
and it is forecast to strengthen.
Now the next name on the list
where early is Brett Be Ret.
That'll happen again I think
later this evening.
There's the 1st and latest forecast track.
From the Hurricane Center,
as of 11:00 o'clock this morning,
it has 80 mile per hour.
Hurricane force winds east of the windwards,
the Lesser Antilles than moving
in just north of Barbados.
As we get towards,
it looks like now Thursday night into
Friday morning and then starting to
curve a little bit perhaps towards
Puerto Rico or up towards the eastern
part of Hispaniola by the time we get
into Friday night and Saturday morning,
we'll have to see what it looks
like at this particular point.
But that's the current forecast.
So a hurricane is scheduled or forecast
I should say to be in the Eastern
Caribbean by Friday into Saturday.
Now here are the forecast models.
The stronger the storm this,
the models want to recurve it,
especially the GFS, the weaker.
It'll go further to the West
and that's pretty typical.
This is the GFS model.
It's the stronger of the two,
especially when you compare
it to the European.
You can see where we are Wednesday.
Notice as we get into Friday,
it's starting to go a little
bit further to the north of the
current Hurricane Center track,
kind of skirting the Windward Islands,
the Leeward Islands there and then moving
north by the time we get into Sunday
night into Monday and taking it out to sea.
Probably the best case scenario
with this particular storm.
Now,
the other side of that coin though is that
the European model has a weak system here.
It is not as weak.
It does get a depression or at least a storm,
I should say through Barbados by
the time we get into Thursday.
But as he enters the Caribbean,
in the Eastern Caribbean,
shears going to be on a little
bit and the European thinks,
hey,
this thing's going to weaken quite
a bit and a weaker storm will
generally go further to the West,
a stronger storm.
Will generally turn more to the north.
And so the GFS thinks it's
going to be stronger,
it turns it to the North.
European thinks it's going to be weaker.
It takes it all the way
across the southern parts
of the Caribbean as we go through Saturday,
Sunday and Monday of this upcoming weekend
and really doesn't do too much with it.
Now there's a second system,
so if you if you act now,
we'll throw in another one for free
that is Tropical Depression Three,
that's Invest 93 L TD3 was 92.
This one doesn't look like
it's going to do much.
In fact, the GFS model, there's depression.
Three, right? That's going to be Brett.
There's the secondary 193.
It looks like if this turns to the north,
that one's going to be weak and get absorbed
or at least just come up east of it.
So I'm not concerned for Florida,
at least for any of these
at this particular point.
But it's something that we have to
watch and it looks like the recurve
will happen on the GFS model.
Let's hope that happens.
Now look, you're saying it's June.
And we're looking at long track storms.
Yes, this is not typical for this
time of the year and the main reason
the water out here is very warm now.
The fact that we're seeing two
systems now doesn't surprise me.
You need a good set up in
the atmosphere to make one,
you've got warm water and then the set up
around it is going to let us make another 1.
So it's not crazy that we're seeing two,
it's just crazy that we're seeing any at all
in that area typically this time of the year.
We're looking in the Gulf of Mexico
in the Western Caribbean for storms
to form as we get through July.
We're still only looking towards
the eastern part of the Caribbean,
east of Florida and still in
the Gulf of Mexico.
Look at this June,
July are basically in the Caribbean.
Notice what happens in August.
By August 1st route,
the numbers really come up.
We're still not really looking in August
in the Central Atlantic for development.
That really doesn't happen
until we get into September.
So what's happening out there right now?
Is more typical for something that we would
find in September in the hurricane season.
And the main reason why is because of
the fact that we have that warmer air,
warmer water out there in
the Central Atlantic.
You see in October,
comes back closer to our area and
then as we get into November,
we really drop the numbers
altogether real fast.
I do want to show you the shear.
There's not a lot of shear around
it right now.
That's why it's forecast to strengthen.
But look at the shear here.
This actually protects us.
If it were to stay around,
this is the GFS forecast.
You can see it's not a lot of
shear around it that way.
It lets it gets a little bit bigger.
Most of it stays to the north,
but by the time we get towards
Thursday and Friday,
if it holds on this track,
you can see there's going to
be a lot of shear here along
Hispaniola and just to the north.
So something that will keep a close
eye on the European forecast model.
The shear data is having a hard
time showing up there it is.
You can see it has more shear on the system.
And then it thinks it will
fall apart as a result.
Either way, guys will keep an eye on it.
Florida does not look to be
threatened at this time,
but we will keep a close eye
over the next several days.