drawing fierce condemnation for racist rhetoric and President Biden
is gearing up for a trip out West, making his pitch to voters and
donors in the final campaign stretch for analysis of it all I'm joined
as we are each Monday by any Walter of the Cook political report
with Amy Walter and Tamara Keith NPR.
Hello to both of you. In case you have not checked the calendar tomorrow
after tomorrow, four weeks until election day. It's November. The
eighth just reminding. I wasn't paying attention at all. Judy. Thank
you. I know you weren't. But because of that. We want to mark this
occasion by asking each one of you. Where does this race stand? I
mean, the Republicans have been very confident. Amy. They're going
to pick up the house, The Senate and the balance. What does it look
like? This looks like in some ways a typical midterm election. You
have a
President where that President's party has the house and the Senate.
It's very hard to keep those traditionally the president, not particularly
popular.
That usually draws the party down. Drags that party down in the party
does lose seats in the House and the Senate probably loses the Senate.
The house except what we're noticing this year is that it's not just
all about Joe Biden and Democrats. It's also about the former president
Donald Trump. And it's about, of course, the historic decision this
June made by the Supreme Court.
To overturn the Roe versus Wade decision, And so what? The way I
talk about this is it's as if the winds are still blowing.
At Republicans backs. It's not that the wind suddenly changed directions,
right. We didn't go from an election that was bad for Democrats,
the one that's great for Democrats, but it's not. The wind is not
quite as strong.
At the backs of Republicans or in the face of Democrats. Thanks in
part, as I said, to the fact that we're talking a lot about issues
like abortion, Donald Trump that motivate the Democratic base and
the fact that Republicans nominated a number of candidates, especially
at the Senate level, who are very flawed and finally structurally
Democrats again in the Senate, but also in the House.
There aren't that many
Um very difficult, vulnerable seats that has also helped Democrats
in so I still give Republicans the advantage, but it's just not as
significant as it was saying earlier in the year even before the
summer, What would you add to that? I would just say that, um and
I think I've said this before on politics Monday, but that if you
go back a few months before the Dobbs decision on abortion
All of the signals were pointing in one direction, and those signals
were all pointing to it being pretty difficult year for Democrats.
Since then, there are a lot of really mixed signals where Democrats
are having pretty good fundraising, where Republicans are facing
these challenges with candidates, for instance, and in a Republican
I talked to who is working to get Republicans elected in the House,
the top level person?
Said that the Dobbs decision absolutely has made a difference in
particular because in swing districts, voters tend to be pro choice.
However, he also added that they also still really care and rank
as high on their list of issues. Uh, the economy and crime and you
see Republicans.
Hammering the message of crime. Yeah, No, no question. I just came
back from Wisconsin, where you see that all over the airwaves that
peace is going to air in a few days. But you brought up. Uh, whatever
you brought up. It makes me it makes me want to ask you Tam because
you cover the White House about the fact that President Biden is
now hitting the campaign trail. He's making a swing this week Out
west. What's behind that, And I will say that we were expecting the
president's travel schedule to really kick into gear earlier.
This year. But then he had covid and and things got delayed And then
he had, you know, like rebound, Covid and
And so the travel has been slow to get going. But that's not the
only thing affecting his travel schedule. Also, there aren't a lot
of places where he can go and stand side by side with one of the
Democratic candidates and actually help and what we've seen a lot
of and we're going to see with this coming West Coast swing is that
he's doing a lot of closed door fundraisers where there aren't cameras
in the room, where he is able to meet with Democratic donors raise
a lot of money. And as I said before Democratic fundraising is
Doing pretty darn well. So he has a fundraiser with Nancy Pelosi
in Los Angeles that we know about later this week with the Democratic
Congressional Campaign Committee. What we don't know is whether he
will be appearing with candidates in California who are in difficult
races whether he will be appearing with a candidate in Oregon who
is having a difficult race. And also he's going to Colorado, where
that Senate races a lot closer than people were expecting. I mean,
this is one of the other interesting things and unique things about
This midterm election is so many of these Democrats that Tam mentioned
part of the reason that they're still in competitive.
Race is that they're not falling behind or they haven't fallen behind.
Republicans is that they're polling so much better than the president
in these districts in the states. Normally what you see is a president
with approval ratings as low as this president really does.
Drag. It's like it's like an anchor pulling down
the candidates of that President's party. In this case, they've been
able to rise above it now. Republicans still believe that if they
can, they have a still a month more to go to try to link Democratic
candidates with the president to try to pull them closer together.
But its reason why these Democratic candidates don't want to give
the president time in their state on a debate. I mean, on a rally
stage where they're actually able to make that direct link, like
See this person is a Biden Democrat. Well, the other person who's
been out on the trail. A fair amount is the former president Donald
Trump Tam. He was in Nevada this weekend, and so was the senator
from Alabama Republican
Senator Tommy Tuberville, who has been criticized before now for
escalating rhetoric on crime, tying it to race. Here's what he said
this weekend.
Some people say Well, they're soft on crime, another not soft on
crime, their program. They won't crap.
They won't cry because they want to take over what you got. They
want to control what you have. They want reparation because they
think the people that do the crime or old that
So he's talking about Democrats and clearly referring to black Americans,
indeed, and there's really no getting around the fact that that is
a racist statement. The idea that only black people commit crime
or something which is just patently untrue. And, um, yeah, just very
much untrue, but
What I will say is that the the Republican effort to tie Democrats
to crime to say that Democrats want crime or are you know like soft
on crime are one lenient on criminals. That is very much on message
with the Republican campaigns. There is a huge amount of spending
on crime related advertising image in Wisconsin Priorities. USA is
a Democratic group, but they're tracking
ad spending digit
All ad spending from both parties. What they told me this week is
that
70% of the digital ads. These are targeted ads being run in that
Wisconsin Senate race are about crime on the Republican side only
15% about the economy. So if you want to know where they think they're
winning messages, look where they're spending their money and where
they think they can. But a statement like this, Amy, does it make
a difference in in how people vote.
So this is at a rally with folks who are firm True believers of Donald
Trump.
I also think, Judy. We're living in a time where the consequences
for what would have been considered outrageous behavior don't come
to pass that We have candidates saying and doing things that again
and in previous years, either voters would have kicked them out or
the party leadership would have said That's not okay. We don't do
that.
There's no reason for folks to not do that, because actually, the
incentive structure now rewards people who are the most outrageous
say the most outrageous things and also I think it goes back to 2016.
So many politicians now look at Donald Trump and say he won after
the access Hollywood tape.
If he can do that, So can I. So can that person it's up to voters
to say actually, you know what? I know. I'm tied to my party. I know.
Maybe I don't like the other party very much, but I can make a difference
here by saying I'm not gonna stick with my party and I'm going to
go and choose the other side. I think it's important for us to point
to the statements when they take place. It reminds us that kind of
discussion are happening out there. Amy Walter, Tamara Keith. Thank
you both.