WHERE ALL EYES WILL BE ON
TIMELINE, HIGHER INTEREST RATES,
MONETARY POLICY.
JOINING US ANDERSON CAPITAL
MANAGEMENT PETER ANDERSON.
ALSO JOINING THE CONVERSATION
ALL MORNING LONG FOX BUSINESS
DAGEN MCDOWELL AND THE WALL
STREET JOURNAL ASSISTANT
EDITORIAL PAGE EDITOR JAMES
FREEMAN.
GREAT TO SEE EVERYBODY THIS
MORNING, THANK YOU SO MUCH FOR
BEING HERE.
PETER, KICKING THINGS OFF WITH
YOU WITH A MARKET THAT IS
FOCUSED ON THE FEDERAL RESERVE
MAKING BETS ABOUT HOW MANY
INTEREST RATES HIKE WE WILL SEE,
WHAT MIGHT WE LEARN FROM THE FED
MEETING NEXT WEEK, WHAT ARE YOU
EXPECTING IN THE COMING MONTHS
FROM THE FED?
>> WELL, I’M HOPING, MARIA THAT
WE DO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE
CLARITY BUT I’M NOT CERTAIN THEY
ARE GOING TO BE -- THEY ARE
GOING TO CONTINUE TO BE VAGUE
ABOUT HOW MANY RATE HIKES THEY
ARE GOING TO MAKE.
I’M EXPECTING 3, MAYBE EVEN 4 IN
THE NEXT YEAR PERIOD AND I THINK
THE MARKET IS REFLECTING THAT,
ALTHOUGH, ERRONEOUSLY, I THINK
THEY ARE REACTING IN THE WRONG
WAY TO RATE HIKES BUT I DO
EXPECT THAT AND I DO EXPECT A
LITTLE BIT MORE CLARITY ABOUT
BEYOND THE YEAR AND LET’S ALSO
THINK ABOUT TWO OR THREE YEARS
FROM NOW, THAT SEEMS LIKE AN
INFINITE TIME FROM NOW BUT I
HOPE THAT THE FED DOES GIVE US
MORE GUIDANCE ON A BROADER
STANCE.
MARIA: YEAH, YOU KNOW, IT’S
INTERESTING, WE HAVE THE BETTING
GOING ON IN TERMS OF RATE HIKES
COMING FROM THE FEDERAL RESERVE,
THERE’S A POLL FROM REUTERS THAT
SHOWS THE ECONOMISTS ARE
PREDICTING 3 RATE HIKES AS YOU
JUST SAID, BUT, YOU KNOW, MANY
PEOPLE ARE WONDERING HOW THE
MARKET WILL REACT, WE HAD LARRY
LINDSEY ON YESTERDAY AND HE SAID
HE’S EXPECTING THE FED TO START
RAISING RATES BUT THEN GIVEN
MARKET REACTION TO GET OUT OF
THE WAY, STOP AND TAKE A PAUSE,
THEN THERE WAS THE BEAR TRAP
REPORT LARRY MCDONALD YESTERDAY,
HERE IS WHAT HE SAID ABOUT THE
FEDERAL RESERVE, WATCH THIS.
>> THE FED HAS REALLY DONE A JOB
HERE ON THE AVERAGE INVESTOR
BECAUSE THEY HAVE BEEN SELLING
US HARD, HARD, HARD THAT
INFLATION WAS TRANSITORY.
SO WHAT HAPPENED WAS YOU HAD AN
INCREDIBLY BILL-UP AS YOU JUST
SAID IN GROWTH STOCKS AND NOW
THE FED IS COMING CLEAN
ADMITTING THAT INFLATION IS MUCH
MORE SUSTAINABLE ON A HIGHER
TRAJECTORY AND SO THEY ARE OUT
THERE TRYING TO CLAIM THAT THEY
ARE GOING TO DO FOUR HIKES THIS
YEAR AND AT THE END OF THE DAY
THE FED IS PROMISING ON HOW THEY
PULL THAT AND YOU HAVE A BIG
ECONOMIC REACTION.
MARIA: ISN’T THAT THE ISSUE,
PETER.
WE DO NOT KNOW ABOUT THIS WHOLE
MOVE FROM EASING TO TIGHTENING,
WOULD THE FED GET IT RIGHT.
THE MARKET HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING HOW ENORMOUS
THIS CHANGE WILL BE, WILL THEY
GET IT RIGHT AND HOW WOULD
MARKETS REACT?
>> MARIA,S IS SUCH A DIFFICULT
THING FOR A FED TO DO.
FOR THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN AROUND
FOR SOME TIME, YOU KNOW, SAY
SINCE THE 90’s, WE HAVE SEEN
VARIOUS FEDS TRYING TO HANDLE
THIS ACTION AND I’M ACTUALLY
LONGING FOR THE TIME YOU
REMEMBER EARLY ON FEDS HARDLY
GAVE ANY GUIDANCE AND THEY WOULD
TALK ALMOST IN CIRCULAR MANNER
AND I LOOK BACK AT THAT AND I
THINK THAT’S AN EVEN BETTER WAY
TO COMMUNICATE TO US BECAUSE NOW
THE OVERCOMMUNICATION, I THINK,
YOUR COMMENT WAS -- WAS RIGHT ON
IN THAT WE ARE ALL CONFUSED.
YOU KNOW, SO MUCH INFORMATION
AND SO MUCH DATA CORRECTION AS
YOU TURN THE CORNER.
IT’S VERY HARD FOR YOU TO FACTOR
ALL OF THE STATEMENTS OF BEING
SOMEWHAT CONSISTENT AND THEY DO
APPEAR INCONSISTENT AND I THINK
THE FED IS IN A TOUGH STOP
BECAUSE WE HAVEN’T BEEN HERE IN
THE 2 YEAR PERIOD AND IT’S
EXTREMELY DIFFICULT.
HATS OFF FOR THE FED FOR GIVING
US THIS KIND OF CLARITY BUT IT’S
IN THE REALLY CLARITY ISN’T IT.
IT’S MORE CONFUSING, I THINK YOU
CAN TAKE ANY OF THOSE COMMENTS
AND GO ANY DIRECTION THAT YOU
WANT AND LASTLY I THINK THERE’S
A WHOLE NEW GENERATION OF
INVESTORS THAT HAVEN’T BEEN
THROUGH FED HIKES AND THEY ARE
NOT SURE HOW TO EVEN NAVIGATE
THROUGH THOSE.
MARIA: YEAH.
SO -- SO WHAT ARE INVESTORS
DOING, THEY ARE SELLING GROWTH,
THE NASDAQ DOWN 5% THIS WEEK,
WORST WEEK SINCE OCTOBER 2020.
CRYPTO TAKES A HIT.
$147 BILLION WIPED OUT OF CRYPTO
JUST IN THE LAST 24 HOURS,
BITCOIN DIVING 8%, A FALLING
BELOW $3,000 AS THE FED LAUNCHES
REVIEW OF POTENTIAL CRYPTO,
PETER.
DO YOU WANT TO SELL GROWTH, DO
YOU WANT TO SELL HIGHER RISK
ASSETS LIKE CRYPTO, LIKE THE
NASDAQ?
>> WELL, I’M GOING TO TAKE THE
SOMEWHAT CONTROVERSIAL POSITION,
MARIA, THAT I DO NOT FIRMLY
BELIEVE THAT HIGHER RATES IMPACT
GROWTH MORE THAN VALUE.
YOU KNOW, WE’VE HEARD THIS
MANTRA FOR A YEAR NOW AND IF YOU
DO A LITTLE BIT OF A MATH -- I’M
NOT GOING TO DO THAT RIGHT NOW,
BUT IF YOU DO A LITTLE BIT OF
MATH BEHIND THE HYPOTHESIS,
HIGHER RATE IMPACT GROWTH MORE
THAN VALUE, I CAN COME UP ALL
KINDS OF SCENARIO THAT TOTALLY
CONTRADICT THAT AND, IN FACT, DO I THINK CERTAIN GROWTH STOCKS
I THINK CERTAIN GROWTH STOCKS
ARE IN THE SWEET SPOT, CERTAINLY
NOT LIKE PELOTON BUT THOSE WHO
HAVE DEVOTED FOLLOWERS SUCH AS
COMPUTER SECURITY.
THAT’S NOT A LOCKDOWN THEME.
THAT’S SOMETHING THAT WE ARE
ALWAYS GOING THE NEED SO I’M
TOTALLY AGAINST THE FACT THAT WE
SHOULD BE ROLLING INTO VALUE AND
SELLING GROWTH.
I’M JUST TOTALLY AGAINST THAT.
MARIA: ANY VALUE IN CRYPTO,
PETER?
>> I THINK YOU ALREADY KNOW THE
ANSWER.
I THINK CRYPTO IS HEADED FOR A
MAJOR CORRECTION.
I DON’T KNOW BUT HARDLY ANYBODY
UNDERSTANDS THE MATHEMATICS
BEHIND IT AND I THINK YOU HAVE
TO UNDERSTAND THAT TECHNICAL
CONSTRUCTION OF CRYPTO AND YOU
ASK MOST LEADERS THAT ARE
BRAGGING ABOUT CRYPTO AS BEING
THE NEXT SET OF THING.
IF YOU ASK THEM ANY MORE DETAIL
ABOUT THAT, THEY REALLY DO
STUMBLE IN TERMS OF TRYING TO
TELL YOU WHAT THE FAIR VALUE IS
OF THINGS LIKE THAT BECAUSE IT’S
A TOTAL DIFFERENT -- IF I DARE
SAY, BUT I’M NOT SURE IT IS, WE
NEED A LOT MORE WORK ON THAT.
MARIA: YEAH.
WELL, IT’S BEEN QUITE 24 HOURS
THERE, 150 BILLION WIPED OUT OF
THE CRYPTO MARKET.
PETER, GOOD TO SEE YOU, THANK
YOU SO MUCH.
APPRECIATE YOUR TIME THIS
MORNING, PETER ANDERSEN ON ALL