As of May 7th, 2023, there are currently 41 volcanoes which are actively erupting around
the planet.
One of these erupting volcanoes is the famous Popocatépetl volcano in Mexico that is 71
kilometers southeast of Mexico City, which has been almost continuously erupting since
2004 and is the second tallest active volcano in all of North America.
Its eruptive activity has mostly consisted of intermittent strombolian to vulcanian explosions
which eject bombs of lava, ash and occasionally pyroclastic flows.
With this being said, here are this week's major volcano related news stories.
In Alaska, an earthquake swarm occurred at the Trident volcano, possibly due to a moderate
depth magmatic intrusion, which seemingly triggered additional earthquakes at 3 other
adjacent volcanoes.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, the Gamalama volcano which has not produced an eruption in 5 years
produced an intense earthquake swarm.
And, for this week's top story.
In the Philippines, one of the 4 volcanoes which has produced frequent volcanic eruptions
in the last decade, Kanlaon, has a chance of erupting in the short to mid term future.
For context, the Kanlaon volcano is located on the island of Negros in the central western
Philippines.
It has erupted more than a dozen times in the last 100 years including an eruption about
every 5 years during the 21st century so far.
Kanlaon is thus highly active, and currently has a 4 kilometer exclusion zone around its
summit.
Between March 3rd and April 19th 2023 it had only produced a daily total of sulfur dioxide
ranging from 64 to 156 tons a day.
This figure increased to 206 tons a day on April 27th, before it dramatically jumped
to 1099 tons a day on April 30th, being a full order of magnitude higher than is typical.
Additionally, 2 of the last 10 days saw more than 10 earthquakes occur at the volcano in
a day, which is somewhat unusual.
Taken into account in the context of this volcano, it appears that a change has occurred
in its hydrothermal system, possibly triggered by an influx of magma at depth.
Kanlaon's eruptions are almost universally phreatic, and this makes it harder to predict.
However, in the month before an eruption occurs, there are generally 3 things which all occur,
of which two of these three on the checklist have already occurred.
Thus, a new volcanic eruption from Kanlaon in the next month is possible.
In Indonesia, making up the entirety of Ternate Island is the volcano of Gamalama, with more
than 100,000 people living on its flanks.
When this volcano erupts, a large number of people are placed at risk.
However, the northern section of the island is typically most at risk in an eruption due
to the volcano's topography.
Explosive eruptions have occurred more than a dozen times in the last 100 years, including
a prior eruption in 2018, with eruptions occasionally producing pyroclastic flows and lahars.
On May 3rd 2023, Gamalama produced its highest number of earthquakes in more than a year,
as 71 quakes occurred.
This included 22 quakes related to the movement of volcanic gasses and 36 volcano tectonic
quakes.
All of this activity suggests that a batch of magma could already be intruding at shallow
depths underneath Gamalama.
Thus, in my opinion by May 20th 2023 Gamalama has a double digit percentage chance of erupting,
probably with a small to moderate intensity.
In Alaska, two volcanoes are erupting while another 4 are at a raised alert level of yellow.
One of these volcanoes, Trident is located in Katmai National Park, which has seemingly
been the site of a magmatic intrusion and reactivation since August of 2022.
In somewhat of a brief period that followed this suspected intrusion, I interpret that
magma reached shallow depths, spreading out to interact with the hydrothermal system of
Trident and three adjacent volcanoes in a line of activity.
This has produced earthquake swarms, including the largest swarm to occur at Trident in three
months which just occurred.
Consisting of 72 low magnitude earthquakes between May 4th and May 5th of 2023, these
represented a spike in activity, once again probably being related to a change in various
volcanoes hydrothermal systems.
Uplift has not yet been detected, although when an earthquake swarm occurs there is always
an increased risk of an eruption occurring in the short term.
Here is a quick list of all of the world's volcanoes which are currently erupting.
Additionally, here are some volcanoes showing signs of unrest which are not erupting as
of the recording of this video on May 6th of 2023.
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