Good Thursday afternoon everybody.
I'm meteorologist Tim Pandas,
we've got a lot to talk about in this update,
a brand new drought report
released this morning.
Not great news for Southeast Texas.
I have good news though.
In regards to the drought is that
we have rain chances that'll
be going up starting tonight,
widespread tomorrow, and again on Saturday.
So hopefully we can maybe lessen
that drought a little bit.
I don't think it's enough to
put a big dent in that though.
Tropics remaining quiet as we inch our
way closer to the peak of hurricane season,
which is a little over a month.
Way on September 10th.
Believe it or not,
there have been updates to the
outlook for the remainder of the
season and what we could expect.
Alright, let's start with the drought.
Widespread areas of extreme
drought conditions.
This is last week's report.
Look at the difference.
Jumping the this week.
Exceptional drought conditions,
the highest tier severity you can get.
Expanded north through Sealy and Brenham
all the way up to College Station.
Extreme drought conditions now encompassing
a large portion of Harris and Montgomery.
In fact, look at the week over
week jumps here in Harris County.
66% of the county 2/3 are
under extreme drought.
That's a jump of 38% Montgomery County.
Half the county's extreme drought,
and that's a jump of 50% week over week.
There is good news in terms
of reservoir status,
they're all sufficiently full
here in our area.
All the reservoirs that supply water
to Houston and surrounding areas.
Conroe,
Houston and Livingston,
all north of 90% full.
Can't say the same for every
reservoir in the state though off
to the West and into the Panhandle.
Certainly much drier there
and reservoirs are reflecting.
At 3040,
even less than that full in
some of those areas,
look at our rain chances
going forward 30% today.
Double that for Friday and we do it
again on Saturday down to 30% on Sunday,
so rain chances pretty much each
day up through the upcoming weekend.
Here's future track showing this
afternoon that 30% chance isolated
downpours atmosphere is really juiced up,
so if you get those downpours and
it sits over you for a little while,
easily could put down an inch
inch and a half worth of rainfall.
Very very beneficial things quiet
down overnight tonight and tomorrow.
I think the morning.
Hours will see the best chances of
rain along the coast that inches its
way northwards into the afternoon.
More widespread with those scattered
storms and downpours.
Quieting down again Friday,
but by Saturday morning things start
to get very active first along the
coast and then expanding northwards
by midmorning to the I-10 corridor.
Widespread heavy rain indicated by
this model lifting its way farther
to the north of I-10 by lunchtime
and around throughout the area
through mid to late afternoon.
Before tapering on off flood potential
is there even though we're extremely dry.
We're at a. Level 1 out of a four tiered
system in terms of flood potential here,
that marginal risk in the area in
green for tomorrow. We haven't
gotten the update yet for Saturday.
Likely similar conditions.
Alright, let's jump to the tropics now.
Void of any activity in the Gulf of Mexico.
Very quiet in the Atlantic Basin too.
Despite a rather robust tropical wave
exiting Africa heading into the basin,
it's going to run into a few roadblocks,
though, because of all the dusty conditions.
But we are inching our way closer to
the more active portion of the season.
Here we are in the fourth,
climbing our way to September 10th.
The peak look at the increased
climatologically inactivity we can expect.
So that being said,
there have been 2 updates issued
today by several organizations.
The Hurricane Center National
Hurricane Center, NOAA,
and Colorado State kind of
adjusting their outlooks.
They put out earlier in the season,
so Noah says now 14 to 21
named storms or 14 to 20.
Excuse me, they originally had 15 to 21,
so lowered it slightly.
Colorado State now has says 18 named storms.
As we go through the rest of the season,
those include Alex, Bonnie,
and Colin that already developed.
So still an above average season expected.
On average we see around 14 named
storms with a 30 year average.
So why the update and why
the change in those numbers?
Well, Lanina is expected to continue.
That's cooler Pacific waters along
the equator and that leads to less
wind shear in the Atlantic Basin,
making it easier for storms
to develop and persist.
Also, we've got above normal tropical water.
Sea surface temperatures are well above.
So they need to be insufficient
for storm development and growth,
and that led to that slight
decrease in those storm counts,
but still an above average season expected.
There's a look at all that dust,
a lot of it out there,
and it's drifting to the West,
some of it even making it into
our skies by next weekend or so.
As long as that dust is present and
not lift it farther to the north,
it'll keep the tropics quiet,
at least for now.
Now it has been a rather slow July.
In fact, our last name storm,
our third of the season,
was on July 3rd, so it's been a month,
but Despite that.
They are actually right on schedule
with where we should be when we look
at climatology from 1991 to 2020.
Typically the third named storm.
Takes until August 3rd to develop,
so we're right in line with that.
With Colin developing a month ago,
so we'll see what the rest of
the season holds.
Here's a look at your weekend forecast.
50% chance on Saturday for some
storms and downpours 9294 on Sunday.
A 30% chance, 7 day forecast.
After the weekend we kind of
fall back to business as usual.
Afternoon storms and temperatures
right in the in line with
where we should be in the mid 90s.