THE FACT THAT THIS PLANNING WAS APPARENTLY IN THE LATER STAGES?
>> BRETT, LET ME BRING YOU INTO
THIS CONVERSATION.
THIS CONVERSATION. THE THREAT REPRESENTED BY
IRAN-BACKED MILITIAS IS ONE THAT
YOU KNOW VERY WELL.
TAKE ME THROUGH YOUR THINKING ON
ON WHATEVER CALCULATION HAD TO
HAVE BEEN MADE AND WHAT THE
INTEL PICTURE HAD TO HAVE LOOKED
LIKE FOR DONALD TRUMP TO MAKE A
DECISION THAT HIS TWO
PREDECESSORS PASSED ON?
>> THANKS, NICOLE.
IF YOU GO BACK TO THE 2007-2008
TIME FRAME, THAT WAS THE HEIGHT
OF THE SURGE.
WE HAD 160,000 TROOPS IN IRAQ.
WE WERE FIGHTING THESE SHIA
MILITIA GROUPS TOOTH AND NAIL.
WE INFLICTED SEVERAL CASUALTIES
ON THEM.
ON THEM. WE NEVER REALLY WERE ABLE TO
STOP THOSE ROADSIDE BOMBS OR
THOSE ROCKET ATTACKS.
THEY DIDN’T REALLY STOP UNTIL A
POLITICAL DECISION WAS MADE IN
2011.
2011. AND SINCE THEN, WE REALLY HAD
NOT HAD ANY ATTACKS IN OUR
FACILITY AGAINST OUR PEOPLE SO
ALMOST A PERIOD OF SEVEN YEARS.
THESE STARTED AGAIN, IT APPEARS
ACCORDING TO GENERAL MILLEY
ABOUT SIX MONTHS AGO.
THE FIRST THING I USED TO DO WAS
THE THREAT ASSESSMENT AND
WHETHER THERE WAS ANY INDICATION
THAT SOLEIMANI WAS RECONSIDERING
HIS PROHIBITION AGAINST HIS
ATTACKS AGAINST US.
IF THERE WAS, WE WOULD ACT
IMMEDIATELY.
IMMEDIATELY. CLEARLY HE MADE A DECISION ABOUT
FOUR MONTHS OR SO TO GREENLIGHT
ATTACKS AGAINST US IN IRAQ.
BUT THAT WAS PART OF THIS
ACTION/REACTION CYCLE WE’VE BEEN
IN REALLY SINCE MAY OF LAST
YEAR.
YEAR. SO WE PULLED OUT OF THE JCPOA IN
MAY OF 201.
A YEAR GOES BY, NOTHING REALLY
HAPPENS.
HAPPENS. AND IRAN MADE A STRATEGIC
DECISION FROM AT THE HAHN TO
BEGIN A NUMBER OF PROVOCATIVE
ACTS, TARGETING A COUPLE TANKERS
IN THE GULF, THE VERY SERIOUS
ATTACK IN THE ARAMCO FACILITIES
IN SAUDI ARABIA, SO WE’VE BEEN
ON THIS ESCALATORY CYCLE.
AND THAT SHOWS A POLICY THAT MAY
NOT HAVE BEEN FULLY GAMED OUT.
AND I THINK THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION HOPES THAT BY
THIS DECAPITATION STRIKE, WE
HAVE ACHIEVED NOW WHAT WE CALL
ESCALATION DOMINANCE AND THAT
THE IRANIANS ARE REALLY NO
LONGER GOING TO TEST US, BUT I
THINK THEY WILL TEST US.
IT’S CLEAR THAT THEY WILL REACT
TO THIS IN SOME WAY.
IT PROBABLY WON’T BE IMMEDIATE.
BUT EVEN IF THESE IMMINENT
ATTACKS WERE PLANNED, IT’S JUST
ODD BECAUSE IF THAT WAS THE
CASE, THAT MEANS THERE ARE CELLS
READY TO ATTACK.
SO SOLEIMANI WASN’T GOING TO
CARRY OUT THOSE ATTACKS HIMSELF,
THOSE CELLS ARE STILL IN PLACE.
AND THEN THE ONUS WILL BE BACK
UPON THE UNITED STATES FOR WHAT
WE DO.
WE DO. SO THIS ESCALATORY LADDER CAN
KEEP GOING HIGHER.
>> YOU PIQUED MY EARS WENT UP
WHEN YOU SAID IT’S ODD.
WHAT’S ODD ABOUT IT?
BECAUSE A FORMER INTELLIGENCE
OFFICIAL SAID TO ME THIS IS NOT
THE KIND OF SNAKE WHERE YOU CUT
OFF THE HEAD AND THE SNAKE DIES.
WHAT’S ODD TO YOU THE FACT THAT
AN IMMINENT ATTACK WOULD BE
CARRIED OUT WHETHER SOLEIMANI IS
ALIVE OR DEAD, IS THAT YOUR
POINT?
POINT? >> THE CAPABILITIES ARE THERE.
THEY HAVE BEEN THERE FOR A LONG
TIME.
TIME. GROUPS LIKE HEZBOLLAH HAVE NOT
ATTACKED US SINCE 2011.
THEY STARTED LAUNCHING ROCKETS
IN OCTOBER OF LAST YEAR AGAIN.
THEY STILL HAVE THE SAME
CAPABILITIES.
CAPABILITIES. THEY STILL HAVE THE SAME
WEAPONRY.
WEAPONRY. SO, REMOVING SOLEIMANI DOES NOT
NECESSARILY REMOVE THAT THREAT
AT ALL.
AT ALL. IN FACT, IT COULD MAKE THOSE
GROUPS ACT WITH EVEN LESS
DISCIPLINE.
DISCIPLINE. SO OUR PEOPLE ARE STILL AT
SERIOUS RISK.
SERIOUS RISK. WE ASK ALL AMERICANS TO LEAVE
IRAQ TODAY.
IRAQ TODAY. WE ARE EXTENDING THE WHOLE
BRIGADE INTO THE MIDDLE EAST.
THAT SHOWS THE INTERNAL
INTELLIGENCE IN TERMS OF
BLINKING RED LIGHTS.
JUST ONE FINAL POINT.
IT’S ALWAYS BEEN SOLEIMANI’S
STRATEGIC GAME.
STRATEGIC GAME. WHY HAVE THESE ATTACKS HAPPENED
OVER THE LAST DECADE OR SO?
IT’S BEEN A STRATEGIC GAME TO
GET US OUT OF THE MIDDLE EAST.
HE WANTS TO SEE US LEAVE SYRIA.
HE WANTS TO SEE US LEAVE IRAQ.
WE ARE IN IRAQ WITH A COALITION
OF ALMOST 20 COUNTRIES THAT ARE
WITH US THERE, MAINLY FOR THE
CAMPAIGN AGAINST ISIS.
SOLEIMANI WANTS US TO LEAVE.
AND THE IRAQI PARLIAMENT NOW, AS
EARLY AS TOMORROW, ARE
ORGANIZING TO VOTE, PERHAPS TO
ASK US TO LEAVE THE COUNTRY.
I THINK IF WE LEAVE IRAQ AFTER
THIS, THAT WOULD JUST BE A REAL
DISASTROUS OUTCOME.
DISASTROUS OUTCOME. THAT WOULD GIVE SOLEIMANI WHAT
HE WANTED.
HE WANTED. IT WOULD GIVE FREE REIGN TO THE
IRANIANS EVEN MORE THAN THEY
HAVE NOW.
HAVE NOW. AND THEN ISIS WOULD FILL THE
VACUUM AS WELL.
SO WE’D KIND OF BE RIGHT BACK TO
WHERE WE ARE.
SO I HOPE THE ADMINISTRATION IS
THINKING CLEAR THAT WE HAVE NO
INTENTION OF LEAVING IRAQ AND
DOING QUIET DIPLOMACY WITH THE
IRAQIS TO TRY TO BUY US SOME
TIME.
TIME. >> GENERAL McCAFFREY, IF YOU
TAKE BRETT’S ANALYSIS THAT IF
THERE WERE ATTACKS PLANNED BY
SOLEIMANI, ALIVE OR DEAD, THOSE
ATTAS REPRESENT POTENTIALLY AN
EVEN GRAVER THREAT WITHOUT THEIR
LEADER THERE AND WITH THE
PASSIONS OF TRYING TO AVENGE HIS
DEATH IT.
DEATH IT. >> WOULD SOUND LIKE THE
ADDITIONAL TROOPS HEADING TO THE
REGION COULD BE IN MORE DANGER
TODAY THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
>> WELL, LOOK.
THE TACTICAL OUTCOME ON THE
GROUND IN IRAQ FAVORS THE
IRANIANS.
IRANIANS. WE’VE GOT A FEW THOUSAND TROOPS,
5,000 TROOPS SPREAD AROUND THE
COUNTRY.
COUNTRY. WE HAVE A VULNERABLE EMBASSY.
THERE IS NO IRAQI GOVERNMENT TO
TEAL
TEAL DEAL WITH.
DEAL WITH. THE GENERALS AND THE POLICE AND
THE IRAQI ARMY ARE TRYING TO
FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY SHOULD DO.
THERE’S 165,000 OF THEM.
SO WE’RE A DROP IN THE BUCKET.
THE IRANIANS HAVE THE UPPER HAND
TO ESCALATE THIS ON THE GROUND
IN THE MIDDLE EAST.
OUR ADVANTAGE IS STRATEGIC AIR
AND NAVAL POWER.
IF THEY MISCALCULATE NOW AND GO
AFTER SUCCESSFULLY A BUNCH OF
AMERICANS, ABDUCTIONS,
AMERICANS, ABDUCTIONS, KIDNAPPING, MURDER, BOMBINGS,
THEN I WOULD ANTICIPATE WE WOULD
RUN AN AIR CAMPAIGN AGAINST
IRAN.
IRAN. IT WOULD BE DEVASTATING TO HIM.
THEY SHOULDN’T WANT THAT TO
HAPPEN, AND THERE’S NO SUPPORT
AMONG THE AMERICAN PEOPLE FOR
THAT KIND OF ENHANCEMENT.
SO I THINK POOR MR. TRUMP, I
APPLAUD TAKING OUT SOLEIMANI,
CONGRATULATIONS TO THE
INTELLIGENCE.
INTELLIGENCE. IF IT HAD BEEN A COVERT ACTION,
MAYBE YOU COULD HAVE SAID IT’S
WORTH IT AS A SIGNAL, THE
IRANIANS WERE GETTING SICK OF
THIS.
THIS. BUT WHEN TRUMP WANTED TO TAKE
CREDIT, HE PUT DOWN A MARKER
WHERE THERE’S BOUND TO BE
SERIOUS TROUBLE IN THE COMING
WEEKS.
WEEKS. >> GENERAL, I WANT TO ASK YOU
ABOUT SOMETHING IN THE "NEW YORK
TIMES" REPORTING, "THE TIMES"
STORY THAT I READ FROM THE
BEGINNING REPORTS AND RECOUNTS
THAT WHEN GIVEN THE OPPORTUNITY
TO TAKE OUT SOLEIMANI, BOTH
PRESIDENT BUSH AND PRESIDENT
OBAMA PASSED ON IT.
APPLAUDING THE TARGETING AND THE
KILLING OF SOLEIMANI, BUT ALSO
SAYING THAT IN I BELIEVE IT WAS
2007 WHEN HE HAD THE OPPORTUNITY
TO TAKE HIM OUT, THEY PASSED ON
IT BECAUSE IT WOULD’VE LED TO
WIDER CONFLICT IN THE REGION.
WHAT YOU’RE DESCRIBING CERTAINLY
SOUNDS LIKE A WAR IN THE REGION,
AN AIR CAMPAIGN AGAINST IRAN.
WHAT DO YOU THINK OF THOSE
COMMENTS AND ASSESSMENTS MADE BY
TRUMP’S TWO PREDECESSORS.
>> WELL, I THINK THEY HAD IT
RIGHT.
RIGHT. ANY GENERAL CAN BE REPLACED,
EVEN BRILLIANT COURAGEOUS ONES
LIKE SOLEIMANI.
LIKE SOLEIMANI. HE WAS A NATIONAL HERO.
OF COURSE, HE WAS ALSO DESPISED
BY MANY IRANIANS BECAUSE HE WAS
PART OF THE OPPRESSIVE REGIONOM.
BUT HIS DEPUTY IS IMMEDIATELY
PUT IN CHARGE.
I’M SURE HE’S A CAPABLE GUY, THE
CAPACITY TO DO MISCHIEF IN
IRANIANS HAS BEEN UNMITIGATED.
STONEWALL JACKSON GOT KILLED, IT
DIDN’T END THE CIVIL WAR.
PATTON GETS RELIEVED IN SICILY.
IT DIDN’T STOP THE INVASION OF
NORMANDY.
NORMANDY. TAKING OUT A GENERAL AS A SIGNAL
MIGHT BE A GOOD THING TO DO, BUT
IN THIS CASE IT WAS CLEARLY AN
IMPULSIVE ILL-THOUGHT OUT NO
STRATEGY BEHIND IT, PROBABLY NO
GOOD’S GOING TO COME OF IT IN
THE LONGER RUN.
WHAT WE HAVE SEEN SINCE THIS
ADMINISTRATION IS NO LONGER A
NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WHERE
THE ELEMENTS OF AMERICAN POWERS
SIT DOWN TO CONSIDER OPTIONS AND
ANALYZE THEM AND MAKE A DECISION
AND COMMUNICATE AND GET OUR
ALLIES ABOARD, AND, HOLY CROW,