CHARLES: WE BEGIN WITH YOUR
MONEY.
WHO BETTER TO TALK TO ABOUT THAT
THAN BOB DOLL, NUVEEN'S CHIEF
EQUITY STRATEGIST AND SENIOR
PORTFOLIO MANAGER.
BOB, YOU FOCUS ON FUNDAMENTALS
OF THE YOU SAY THEY REMAIN
SOLID.
IF THAT IS THE CASE, ARE YOU
BULLISH?
>> YEAH, I'M CONSTRUCTIVE.
LOOK, WE'VE COME 12% IN ABOUT
THREE WEEKS.
SO SOME OF THE GOOD NEWS IS BACK
IN THE MARKETS.
GRANTED WE DUG A BIG HOLE TO
BEGIN TO CLIMB OUT OF.
I THINK IT GETS HARDER FOR THE
MARKET FROM HERE FUNDAMENTALLY
AND TECHNICALLY.
BUT I'M CONSTRUCTIVE ON THE
ECONOMY AS OUR PREDICTIONS
OUTLINE, CHARLES.
CHARLES: WE HAD MIXED ECONOMIC
DATA, RIGHT?
MOST OF IT, THE BIG STUFF HAS
BEEN GOOD, JOB GROWTH STRONG,
WAGES STRONG.
WE HAD A PRETTY GOOD
PHILADELPHIA IF YOU HAD NUMBER
YESTERDAY.
WHERE DOES THAT PUT US,
VIS-A-VIS HEADWINDS HOLDING US
BACK LAST YEAR, PARTICULARLY THE
FEDERAL RESERVE?
>> SO THE FED'S DATA DEPENDENT,
QUOTE, UNQUOTE.
THE DATA AS YOU POINT OUT ARE
COMING IN PRETTY GOOD.
SO AT SOME POINT THIS YEAR I
HOPE THEY HAVE REASON TO RAISE
RATES THAT WOULD MEAN THE
ECONOMY IS DOING WELL.
IF THEY DON'T, THEN THE EARNINGS
PICTURE IS NOT AS GOOD AS WE
THINK.
LET'S HOPE THEY PASS ON THE
NEXT, JUST TO SHOW THAT THEY ARE
DATA DEPENDENT AS OPPOSED TO
WE'RE GOING TO MOVE EVERY
MEETING AS THEY HAVE BEEN AND I
THINK THE MARKET WOULD VIEW THAT
FAVORABLY.
CHARLES: THERE IS A LOT OF WILD
CARDS OUT THERE, INCLUDING THE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN WEEK THREE,
HOW NEGATIVE WILL THIS BE FOR
THE ECONOMY AS THIS DRAGS ON?
>> LONGER IT LASTS THE MORE
NEGATIVE IT IS.
MOST ECONOMISTS SAY EVERY WEEK
OR TWO IS ANOTHER .1 OF A POINT
OF GDP OFF.
IF WE HAVE THIS THING TWO
MONTHS, THAT IS HALF A PERCENT
OF GDP.
THAT IS REAL MONEY, CHARLES.
LET'S HOPE THEY CAN, COOLER
HEADS CAN PREVAIL, GET OFF THE
PLAYGROUND AND COME TO SOME
TERMS.
CHARLES: BUT BY THE SAME TOKEN,
DOES MAJORITY OF THAT COME BACK
LATER, THAT PENALTY-UP DEMAND?
DOES THAT MONEY COME BACK LATER
ON TO SORT OF EQUALIZE IT ALL?
>> GREAT QUESTION, SOME OF IT
FOR SURE COMES BACK.
THOSE EFFECTS ARE HARD TO
ESTIMATE.
THE IT LASTS THE MORE DAMAGE YOU
DO.
YOU CAN'T PREDICT KNOCK-ON
EFFECTS.
TSA WORKERS SAY, YOU KNOW WHAT?
I'M NOT GETTING PAID, I'M NOT
GOING TO WORK.
WE HAVE MASSIVE GRAY CLOUD OVER
THE ECONOMY BECAUSE PEOPLE CAN'T
FLY.
I'M NOT SAYING THAT WILL HAPPEN.
BUT THERE ARE UNINTENDED
CONSEQUENCES IF WE DON'T TAKE
CARE OF THE THING FOR LONG.
CHARLES: ONE OF THE OTHER BIG
WILD CARDS IS TRADE.
YOU SAY TRUMP AND XI WILL
FINALIZE A DEAL BECAUSE THEY
BOTH WANT A POLITICAL WIN.
HOW DO YOU MAKE IT LOOK TO YOUR
SIDE, TO YOUR CONSTITUENTS, THAT
YOU WON?
>> YEAH.
THAT IS THE HARD PART.
I WOULD EMPHASIZE AGAIN, I THINK
THEY BOTH NEED A POLITICAL WIN.
SO I THINK IN THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS WE'LL HAVE SOME SORT OF A
DEAL, SOMETHING DONE BUT, I'M
WORRIED, CHARLES, THERE WILL NOT
BE A WHOLE LOT OF SUBSTANCE.
THERE I THINK IF THERE IS SOME
AGREEMENT AND, THEY SAY WE'LL
TALK TO FIX OTHER THINGS AMERICA
WILL BE HAPPY WITH THAT WE'LL
NOT GET THIS ALL DONE OVERNIGHT.
THIS IS A VERY LONG PROCESS.
THESE ARE A COMPLICATED ISSUES.
A COUPLE MONTHS ARE NOT ENOUGH.
CHARLES: WE JUST GOT THE
MICHIGAN SENTIMENT NUMBER IN
98.7, 93 LAST MONTH, THIS IS
WELL BELOW THE WALL STREET
ESTIMATES HERE.
MAYBE THIS IS STARTING TO
REFLECT, STREET WAS LOOKING FOR
96.4, BOB.
I HAVEN'T HAD A CHANCE TO GO
THROUGH THE DETAILS OF IT, BUT
IS THIS THE SORT OF THING WE
WERE WORRIED ABOUT?
>> YES, EXACTLY CHARLES, YOU PUT
ENOUGH THINGS OUT THERE FOR
PEOPLE TO GET NERVOUS ABOUT AND
UNCERTAIN ABOUT AND THEIR
CONFIDENCE LEVEL INEVITABLY
BEGINS TO DROP.
THE STOCK MARKET DECLINE, THE
GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, UNCERTAINTY
AROUND TRIED.
WE HAVE TO MAKE PROGRESS ON
THESE THINGS FOR PEOPLE TO FEEL
GOOD, SPEND MONEY.
CHARLES: THE LAST ONE, OF COURSE
YOU'RE WELL-KNOWN FOR YOUR
PREDICTIONS AND YOU HAVE 2019
PREDICTIONS.
ONE OF COURSE WE LOOKED AT, THE
ONE STANDS OUT THE MOST TO US,
PREDICTION ON THE 2020
PRESIDENTIAL RACE.
CAN YOU EXPLAIN IT TO THE
AUDIENCE?
>> YEAH, THE PREDICTION FOLKS,
THE DEMOCRATS HAVE A
DOUBLE-DIGIT NUMBER OF PEOPLE
RUN FOR PRESIDENT.
THAT IS CONCENSUS AND THAT
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS CHALLENGED
FROM WITHIN HIS OWN PARTY.
THAT IS OBVIOUSLY NOT CONSENSUS.
WE'VE GONE OUT ON A LIMB.
I HAVE NO INSIDE INFORMATION.
JUST SEEMS TO ME THAT WITH HIS
STRUGGLE IN THE POLLS, HIS
BOLSTERING HIS BASE, BUT
UNABILITY SEEMINGLY TO WANT TO
BROADEN HIS BASE, THAT IS GOING
TO BE NECESSARY IF HE IS GOING
TO HAVE A SHOT GETTING
PENNSYLVANIA, OHIO, AND MICHIGAN
AND WISCONSIN AGAIN.
AND ENOUGH REPUBLICANS MAY SEE
THAT, YOU KNOW WHAT?
MAYBE WE NEED TO CHALLENGE HIM I
DON'T KNOW.
WE'LL SEE.
CHARLES: YOU DON'T HAVE ANY
IDEAS WHO THAT MIGHT BE?
WE KNOW NEVER-TRUMPERS LEFT D.C.
IN WITH THE INTENT TO ROW CLAIM
THE PARTY.
I THINK IT'S A TALL ORDER FOR
THEM TO ON THE REPUBLICAN SIDE
TO BEAT PRESIDENT TRUMP ON
PRIMARY BRING.
>> I DO NOT DISAGREE WITH THAT
AT ALL.
ALSO SADLY FOR REPUBLICANS KNOW
WHEN INCUMBENT PRESIDENTS GET
WITHIN THEIR OWN PARTY THEY
RARELY WIN RE-ELECTION.
SO I'M NOT PREDICTING ANYTHING.
I'M JUST MAKING SOME
OBSERVATIONS.
BUT I THINK YOU'RE RIGHT, TAKING
THE NOMINATION AWAY IS GOING TO
BE HARD.
CHARLES: BOB, YOU STARTED OUT
SAYING TWO DOZEN DEMS.
THEN WHEN YOU MENTIONED THAT
LAST STAT, I GOT A FEELING IT
WILL BE FOUR DOZEN.
SO WE'LL SEE.
WE'LL SEE.
>> IT WILL BE WILD.