WE ARE DOWN 653 POINTS IN A
SHORTENED SESSION ON WALL STREET
TODAY.
SO MANY CONCERNS UP THERE ADDING
TO THE VOLATILITY AND
UNCERTAINTY.
WHEN YOU COULD ARGUE HIS FOREIGN
POLICY WITH JAMES MATTIS LEAVING
AS THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR
THE PRESIDENT EXPRESSING CONCERN
ABOUT OTHER NATIONS AS WELL.
FORMER U.S. OR TO THE E.U. UNDER
PRESIDENT OBAMA ANTHONY GARDNER
AS OUR GUEST WHO HAPPENS TO BE
HERE IN NEW YORK AT LAST WE
SPOKE DURING THE BREXIT BREAKING
NEWS YOU WERE IN LONDON AT THE
TIME.
THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS OUT
THERE AND VALUE ADDED AND THE
UNCERTAINTY HERE IN THE U.S.
ARE YOU WORRIED ABOUT THE STATE
OF RELATIONS BETWEEN THE UNITED
STATES AND THE REST OF THE WORLD
OR SHOULD WE BE IN IT SO WHY?
>> AND TERRIBLY WORRIED ABOUT
THE STATE OF RELATIONS BETWEEN
THE U.S. AND THE REST OF THE
WORLD.
I'VE BEEN WORRIED FOR A YEAR AND
A HALF THAT THERE'S SOME
GEOPOLITICAL THE MARKET HAS BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING.
CONNELL: SUCH AS?
>> TRADE.
I'VE BEEN SAYING THE RISK OF AN
UNDERMINING OF ABLE SPACE FOR
SOME INCLUDING THE WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION COMING IN NOW,
COMING APART IS BEING
UNDERESTIMATED.
CONNELL: UNDERESTIMATED?
I WOULD THINK TRADE CONCERNS ARE
IN THE MESSAGE.
>> WHEN I USED A GORE RUN
WARNING ABOUT WHAT COULD HAPPEN,
I BASICALLY GOT A YAWN.
NOW PEOPLE ARE TAKING THIS
SERIOUSLY.
CONNELL: AT THE BEGINNING
EVERYONE WAS ASSUMING TO THEIR
DETRIMENT AND A LOT OF PEOPLE
GOT CAUGHT ON THE WRONG SIDE OF
THE FINANCIAL MARKET THAT THERE
WOULD BE MORE DEALS CUT.
>> AT THE ABSOLUTE RIGHT TO THE
MARKETS HAVE BEEN TRADING ON
SHORT-TERM AS IN NOT
DISTINGUISHING BETWEEN THE
SIGNAL IN THE NOISE.
FOR EXAMPLE, IN BUENOS AIRES,
AND THE MEETING WAS XI JINPING
ANNOUNCED A BIG DUTIFUL DEAL IN
TOTAL DISAGREEMENT ABOUT WHAT
ACTUALLY HAD BEEN AGREED WEIRD
MARKETS GO DOWN.
THERE WAS A MEETING BETWEEN
TRUMP AND YUNKER ANNOUNCED A BIG
BEAUTIFUL DEAL OF THE ROSE
GARDEN.
AND THE MARKETS WENT UP.
THERE WAS CONFUSION ABOUT WHAT
THEY HAD AGREED MARKETS GO DOWN.
THEY WILL PIERCE THROUGH THE
FOG.
CONNELL: WHAT ABOUT NEXT YEAR
ECONOMICALLY.
WE KEEP HEARING ABOUT LAST YEAR
STORY IN 2018 WAS ABOUT
SYNCHRONIZED GLOBAL GROWTH AND
NOW IT IS SORT OF THE OPPOSITE.
IT HASN'T QUITE GOTTEN YOU IN
THE U.S.
HER CONCERNS ABOUT GROWTH
SLOWING DOWN.
EUROPE IN MANY WAYS IS REALLY IN
TROUBLE.
>> EUROPE IS IN TROUBLE WITH
GROWTH RATE SLOWING DOWN.
ONE REALLY HAS TO LIKE A COUNTRY
BY COUNTRY.
SOME ARE PERFORMING WHITE --
QUITE WELL.
GERMANY SLOWS DOWN BUT IT STILL
GROWING FAIRLY ROBUSTLY IN
SCANDINAVIA AS WELL.
U.K. HAS COME DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY.
USED TO BE THE BEST PERFORMER.
NOW IT'S ONE OF THE WORST
PERFORMERS BECAUSE OF THE
UNCERTAINTIES OF BREXIT.
ONE HAS TO GO ON A COUNTRY BY
COUNTRY LEVEL.
THAT'S NOTHING NEW AND
FORTUNATELY UNCERTAINTY FOR A
LONG TIME BUT ARGUABLY WORSE.
CONNELL: WHICH AREA SHOULD WE BE
UP FOR MOST WORRIED ABOUT SOME
NAME THAT MIGHT CALM NOT ONLY
AFFECT US BUT GLOBAL GROWTH
OVERALL.
WHICH PART OF EUROPE IS THE
MOST?
THE U.K. BECAUSE OF BREXIT?
>> I'M CERTAINLY CONCERNED, AND
WHAT DOES A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOMETHING THAT COULD HAPPEN.
EVEN IF IT'S NOT A NO DEAL HARD
BREXIT AND I THINK THERE WILL BE
A DEAL, THERE'LL BE UNCERTAINTY
UNCERTAINTY IN THE U.K. FOR A
LONG TIME.
I THINK THERE WILL BE A DEAL.
THERE COULD BE ABOUT SOMETHING
THAT EVEN A FEW MONTHS AGO COULD
BE HER DEAL.
IMPROVE SOMEWHAT WITH SOME
TRIMMING FLOOD SAY WITH REGARD
TO THE NEW PARTNERSHIP THAT'S
BEEN OFFERED BY THE E.U. TO THE
U.K.
BUT YOU KNOW, THERE'S
UNCERTAINTY IN THE MARKET AND
ARE BUSINESSES THAT ARE USED TO
WORK WITH QUITE A LOT WHEN I WAS
UNOPPOSED IN BRUSSELS HAVE BEEN
MAKING DECISIONS AND ARE SLOWLY
DIVERSIFYING THE RISKS WERE
NECESSARY.
CONNELL: WITH AN EXAMPLE OF
THAT?
LOTS OF BANKS.
THOSE WHO DIDN'T HAVE
SUBSIDIARIES IN THE CONTINENTAL
EUROPE OR IN IRELAND HAVE IS NOT
PUSHED THEM SO THEY CAN CONTINUE
AFTER BREXIT DAY.
A LOT OF MANUFACTURING
BUSINESSES WHO ARE EXPOSED TO
THE ISSUE OF TARIFFS FOR
PRODUCTS BROUGHT INTO THE U.K.
AND SOLD TO THE CONTINENT ARE
COMPLETELY REENGINEERING THEIR
SUPPLY LINES.
CONNELL: ANY OPTIMISM THAT THE
STORY GETS BETTER NEXT YEAR AND
ANOTHER IN STEEL STARTING TO BE
CUT WHETHER IT'S U.S. AND E.U.,
CHINA OR THINGS GET WORSE FOR
THEY GET BETTER.
>> I CERTAINLY HOPE THEY GET
BETTER.
I'M EXTREMELY PESSIMISTIC ABOUT
THIS FOR A WHOLE BUNCH OF
REASONS.
THE E.U. HAS TABLED A VERY
DETAILED PROPOSAL ABOUT HOW TO
REFORM THE WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION WORLD TRADE
ORGANIZATION.
THERE'S BEEN NO ENGAGEMENT FOR
THIS ADMINISTRATION ON THAT
PAPER.
THE 90% OVERLAP IN OUR INTEREST
IN WHAT WE SHOULD DO TO MAKE IT
MORE AFFECT THIS.
WE SHOULD BE WORKING WITH THE
EUROPEAN UNION, AND APPOINTING A
GUN ON THAT SIDE TO ADDRESS THE
ISSUES OF TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
YOU'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT ON THE
PROGRAM AND WERE NOT DOING THAT.
I'LL GIVE YOU TWO EXAMPLES HERE
OF HOW THIS HAS REAL CONSEQUENCE
FOR BUSINESS.
WE'RE JOINING RUSSIA IN A WTO
CASE RIGHT NOW WITH REGARD TO
THE MEASURES THEY TOOK AGAINST
UKRAINE DURING THE CRIMEA CRISIS
IN WHICH RUSSIA SAYS WE HAVE A
NATIONAL SECURITY EXEMPTION AND
IF WE INVOKE THAT, JUDGES CANNOT
RULE ON THE CASE.
SAUDI ARABIA IS THE SAME THING
AND IT SUFFERED TO EMBARGO WHERE
WE ARE TAKING THE SIDE OF SAUDI
ARABIA SAYING YOU HAVE THE RIGHT
TO INVOKE NATIONAL SECURITY AND
THERE'S NO WAY FOR JUDGES UNDER
TRADE RULES TO DECIDE.
IF THAT HAPPENS, WHEREIN THE LAW
OF THE JUNGLE.