On the 17th June, after more than a three-month break, the Premier League will resume. In
an unprecedented step, none of the remaining 92 games will be played simultaneously and
all of them will be televised live.
In the UK, the matches will be shared across four broadcasters: Sky Sports, BT Sport, Amazon
Prime and – for the first time in history - free-to-air on the BBC. For the remainder
of the 2019-20 season, games starting at 3pm on a Saturday will also be allowed to be shown
on television, with a temporary relaxing of the blackout legislation.
One of the undecided outcomes will be settled almost immediately. Liverpool need just two
wins to secure their first league title since 1990 and their first of the Premier League
era.
If Liverpool beat Everton on the 21st June and then Crystal Palace on the 24th, they
will be champions by the time they face Manchester City on 2nd July and, social distancing rules
permitting, will receive a guard of honour at the Etihad. Liverpool also need 19 points
from 27 available to surpass the record points tally for a Premier League season, set by
Pep Guardiola’s City in 2018 (100 points).
City are currently awaiting a decision from the Court of Arbitration for Sport on whether
their two-year European ban will be overturned. For now – with Guardiola’s team likely
to finish second and be excluded from UEFA competitions – fifth will provisionally
be enough to secure a place in next season’s group stage.
Liverpool, Leicester City, Chelsea and Manchester United are currently in possession of those
places, with Leicester’s ten-point advantage over 6th place almost assuring them of entry.
With 19 goals, Jamie Vardy is also in pole position to win the Golden Boot.
Chelsea, in fourth on 48 points, are also in a strong position, although their remaining
nine matches include games against Liverpool and Manchester City, a London derby against
relegation-threatened West Ham, and – intriguingly – Wolverhampton Wanderers and Sheffield
United.
Chris Wilder’s Blades have a game in hand on their near rivals and, should they beat
Aston Villa in the first game after the resumption, they will leapfrog Manchester United into
fifth. Champions League qualification would be a stunning achievement, but it would be
no anomaly; Sheffield United have the second-best defensive record in the league, behind only
Liverpool.
Wolves, too, are firmly in contention. They remain involved in the Europa League, which
will naturally stretch their resources, but they will resume with three games against
sides at the foot of the table (West Ham, Aston Villa, Bournemouth).
Even Tottenham and Arsenal, down in eighth and ninth respectively, remain in contention
and will face each other in the North London derby before the end of the season. Spurs,
who will be boosted by the return from injury of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min, Moussa Sissoko
and Steven Bergwijn have the slightly easier fixture list, but will begin with a headline
fixture against Manchester United on Friday 19th June. United have also benefitted from
the season’s pause and will have Marcus Rashford available again following a back
injury.
As things stand, the sixth-place team will enter the Europa league, to be joined by the
winner of the FA Cup or, if that team is not already qualified for Europe, the seventh-placed
side in the league. Manchester City have already won the EFL Cup meaning that, if their ban
is upheld, the club finishing eighth might also qualify for the second round of Europa
League qualifying.
At the other end of the table – realistically – five teams remain threatened by relegation.
Having scored just 25 goals all season, at an average of less than one-per-game, Norwich
City are bottom, six points from safety, and with Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester
City and Chelsea all still to face, they are likely to be returning to the Championship.
Above them, Aston Villa must also face four members of the traditional top-six (Arsenal,
Man United, Chelsea and Liverpool) and will do so with the most porous defence in the
league. Much will depend on the performance of the talismanic Jack Grealish, who has not
only received withering criticism for breaching lockdown regulations in England, but remains
strongly linked with a move to Manchester United. John McGinn, the Scottish midfielder
also linked with a big money move, has returned from a serious ankle injury.
The teams in 16th, 17th and 18th place are all locked on 27 points and separated only
by goal-difference. Watford, who inflicted Liverpool’s first loss of the season (3-0)
in the penultimate game before the lockdown but who then lost disappointingly to Crystal
Palace. Bournemouth, who are scoring goals at an average of just one per game, but will
now have influential playmaker David Brooks back after an eleven-month injury lay off.
And West Ham, whose chief executive, Karren Brady, used her column in The Sun to call
for the league to be declared null and void back in March.
Understandably so. West Ham spent £110m last summer (Haller, Fornals) and nearly £270m
over the past three seasons. Given the ongoing issues with the London Stadium and the supporter
protests aimed at the ownership group, relegation would be a disaster.
As it would be for Bournemouth, too. According to figures for the period 2018-2019, £115.6m
of the club’s £131.1m annual revenue came from broadcasting payments, the highest percentage
in the league. While the club have invested heavily in the playing squad, few of their
revenue streams have been developed during their time in the Premier League and, while
parachute payments would soften their landing in the Football League, the need to survive
is self-evident.
Brighton, on 29 points, also remain involved at the wrong end, having not won a single
game in 2020 and having collected 14 points since the beginning of December. Graham Potter’s
are well placed, but face the toughest re-start of all, playing Arsenal, Leicester and Manchester
United in consecutive games.
It’s a period of unprecedented flux. With only a two-week break now expected between
seasons, all the teams involved will want their short-term futures decided as quickly as possible.