STORM READY. STOCKING UP ON SUPPLIES AND FILLING UP THOSE GAS TANKS.
>> GOVERNOR RON DeSANTIS HAS
DECLARED A STATE OF EMERGENCY
FOR DOZENS OF COUNTIES INCLUDING
MIAMI-DADE, BROWARD AND MONROE.
>>> WE HAVE LIVE TEAM COVERAGE
ON THE STORM TRACK.
>> BUT WE BEGIN WITH OUR CHIEF
CERTIFIED METEOROLOGIST BETTY
DAVIS.
WITH THE NEWEST ADVISORY
TONIGHT.
BETTY.
TONIGHT. BETTY. >> ALL RIGHT, LET’S SEE WHAT WE
HAVE HERE.
IT IS A TROPICAL STORM.
A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF
40 MILES PER HOUR.
MOVING TOWARDS WEST NORTHWEST AT
12 MILES PER HOUR.
AND CENTERED 385 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF KINGSTON, JAMAICA AT THIS
HOUR THIS IS MATTER WHAT LOOKS
LIKE ON THE INFRARED IMAGE
SATELLITE I’M SURE MICHAEL WILL
TALK A LOT MORE ABOUT THE
STRUCTURE OF TROPICAL STORM IAN
TONIGHT.
EXPECT IT TO GAIN MORE STEAM
OVER THE CARIBBEAN YES, AND THEN
EVEN MORE AS IT HEADS OUT
TOWARDS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
LET’S INSPECT THIS FORECAST
CONE, ESPECIALLY ZOOMING IN
AROUND ABOUT THAT MONDAY TIME
FRAME WHEN IT’S APPROACHING
WESTERN CUBA.
THEREAFTER HEADS ON OVER TOWARDS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THAT’S WHAT THE FORECAST TRACK
SHOWS AND IN THE VICINITY OF
SOUTH FLORIDA, THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON TUESDAY.
CLEARLY YOU CAN SEE THAT IT IS
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN INTO A
MAJOR HURRICANE AT THAT POINT.
SHOWING A CATEGORY THREE TUESDAY
EVENING WITH WINDS OF 115 MILES
PER HOUR.
SUNDAY IT SHOULD BE PASSING
SOUTH WEST OF JAMAICA.
LET’S GO AHEAD AND BRING IN OUR
HURRICANE SPECIALIST AND STORM
SURGE EXPERT MICHAEL LOWRY.
MICHAEL, THEY GOT THIS UPGRADE
TO TROPICAL STORM BASED ON
SATELLITE ESTIMATES?
>> IT DID, BETTY.
AND DON’T LET THAT FOOL YOU.
THERE HASN’T BEEN AN APPRECIABLE
CHANGE IN THE ORGANIZATION OF
WHAT WAS TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
INTO TROPICAL STORM IAN.
JUST A TICK UP OF ABOUT FIVE
MILES PER HOUR IN THE MAXIMUM
WINDS.
AS BETTY SHOWING YOU HERE’S THE
ENHANCED SATELLITE PICTURE THIS
AFTERNOON.
YOU CAN SEE THIS ONE STILL
SPUTTERING ALONG THERE IN THE
CARIBBEAN.
YOU KNOW WHEN YOU LOOK A LITTLE
MORE CLOSELY AT IT WHEN YOU USE
OUR ENHANCED HIGH RESOLUTION
SATELLITE PICTURE WHAT YOU WILL
FIND IS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF
THIS WAS STILL TO THE EAST OF
WHERE MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORM
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE.
SO THIS IS KIND OF A FOOLED YOU
A LITTLE BIT TO THINK THAT THE
CENTER IS OVER IN THAT
DIRECTION.
NEVERTHELESS, WE ARE SEEING THE
WIND SHEER START TO RELAX OVER
THIS SYSTEM.
THAT’S WHAT’S NOT ALLOWING IT TO
STRENGTHEN SO MUCH OVER THE LAST
FEW DAYS.
YOU LOOK AT THE WATER VAPOR
PICTURE THIS EVENING YOU HAVE
ONCE HURRICANE FIONA THAT IS
MOVING UP INTO THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES THAT IS IMPARTING SOME
VERY STRONG WIND SHEER DOWN ALL
THE WAY INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
WE ALSO HAVE AN UPPER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT IS CHANNELING
THAT SAME THOSE SAME WINDS INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.
SO AS IAN NOW PULLS OFF TO THE
WEST, WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IS
THOSE UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
GOING TO SUBSIDE A LITTLE BIT.
THAT SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN THE
SHORT TERM. WHAT WE’RE MOST
CONCERNED WITH IS THAT IT WHEN
IT GETS INTO THE WESTERN PART OF
THE CARIBBEAN.
IN TERMS OF WHERE IT’S HEADED
LET’S TIME THIS OUT FOR YOU THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND THIS WILL BE
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMAICA.
CAYMAN ISLANDS, YOU WILL BE AT
LEAST IN STRENGTHENING TROPICAL
STORM MAYBE EVEN A HURRICANE
APPROACHING YOU BY THE LATTER
PART OF THE WEEKEND.
LOOK TO THE NORTH THERE WE HAVE
A DIP IN THE JET STREAM.
THAT IS ULTIMATELY WHAT’S GOING
TO PULL THIS OR TUG THIS TO THE
NORTH.
WE HAVE A STRENGTHENING STORM
THAT’S GOING TO BE MOVING TOWARD
CUBA MAYBE EVEN OVER TOWARD CUBA
THAT CAN BE A TEMPORARY SPEED
BUMP FOR THIS ONE BUT IT’S NOT
GOING TO SLOW IT DOWN ALL THAT
MUCH BECAUSE WE HAVE SO MUCH
HIGH OCTANE FUEL THERE IN THE
WESTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN.
WHAT WE’RE LOOKING AT THOUGH
HERE IN THE NEXT SAY 24 TO 48
HOURS IS WHERE DOES THAT
CONVECTION COME TOGETHER?
WHERE DOES IT CONSOLIDATE
BECAUSE JUST A LITTLE BIT OF A
NUDGE EAST, A LITTLE BIT OF A
NUDGE WEST COULD MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE IN TERMS OF WHERE
THIS GETS PICKED UP AND HOW FAR
TO THE EAST IT TURNS.
WHEN YOU LOOK INTO THE COMPUTER
MODELS THIS EVENING YOU SEE
THERE’S A WIDESPREAD HERE.
THE BOOKENDS ARE PRETTY LARGE IN
TERMS OF WHERE THIS MAY END UP
BY NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.
SOME OF THE MODELS LIKE THE G-FS
THE AMERICAN MODEL HAVE IT
FARTHER TO THE WEST IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OTHER
MODELS LIKE THE EUROPEAN MODEL
TAKE IT A LITTLE BIT FARTHER TO
THE EAST. AND SO IF YOU HAVE A
MORE WESTERN TRACK IT’S GOING TO
BE A MORE GRADUAL TURN TO THE
EASTERN GULF IF IT’S MORE TO THE
EAST THAT WOULD TAKE IT UP HERE
TO SOUTH FLORIDA.
FOR YOUS THOUGH, THIS IS NOT A
LOT OF TIME, YOU KNOW THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WE NEED TO BE
PREPARING FOR REGARDLESS OF WHAT
HAPPENS BUT KNOW THIS IS NOT A
SURE FIRE EVENT.
SOMETHING THAT WE’LL NEED TO
CLOSELY MONITOR.
CERTAINLY THIS WEEKEND BUTTON UP
THOSE PREPAREDNESS PLANS MAKE
SURE YOU KNOW WHERE TO GO IF YOU
ARE ASKED TO EVACUATE HERE IN
THE COMING DAYS.
EDEN AND CALVIN ARE THAT’S IT