For the "Pbs newshour," I'm
Stephanie sy.
Geoff: We're going to keep our
focus on the risk of a regional
conflict in the Middle East as
tensions with Iran increase.
For that we turn to Paul Salem,
the president and CEO of the
Middle East institute, a
washington-based non-partisan
think tank.
Thank you for being with us.
How do you interpret the
comments from Israel's former
defense minister, current member
of Israel's war cabinet, who is
clearly warning about the
potential for military
escalation against Hezbollah?
Paul: There has been tension
between Israel and Hezbollah
from the first date of the hamas
attack against Israel October 7.
Reporting indicates U.S. Talked
Israel down from a preemptive
attack on Hezbollah in those
early days.
This tension is coming back
centerstage and the Israelis
have made it clear to the
Americans and to the world that
they want some resolution to
parts of the situation on their
northern border with Hezbollah
and Lebanon.
Otherwise they will take
military action, or at least
that is what they are
threatening.
Geoff: Is Israel capable of
starting and maintaining a two
front war right now?
Paul: I believe it is capable of
doing that.
Obviously that would take a lot
of manpower and a lot of effort.
Particularly as they may be
transitioning their war in gaza
to a more focused and targeted
campaign, they might have the
capacity to open a second front.
But the challenge is that
Hezbollah has so much firepower
that it can unleash on Israeli
economic infrastructure,
civilian infrastructure, energy
infrastructure, including
offshore gas operations, that
the calculation is not so much
can they wage war, as rather,
can they bear the brunt and the
cost.
Geoff: Tell us more about
Hezbollah's military
capabilities.
What kind of damage could
potentially inflict on Israel?
Paul: The last were between
Israel and Hezbollah was in 2006
, so, 17 years ago.
Since then, Iran has resupplied
Hezbollah with a much larger and
much more accurate arsenal of
missiles, estimated to be well
more than 100,000 missiles.
These are in various parts of
the country.
And because many of them are
precision missiles, according to
reports, that they are able to
target very critical
infrastructure in Israel as well
as civilian infrastructure.
Although Israel has an effective
defense system that can catch a
large number of missiles, but
certainly not all.
Geoff: Does Hezbollah, in your
estimation, want a war?
Paul: Hezbollah definitely does
not want a full-scale war, nor
does Iran.
Hezbollah has made it clear
after the hamas attacks on
Israel and after the Israeli
attacks on gaza, that it will
maintain a limited level of
engagement or hostility across
the border.
In their telling it is to pin
down some of the Israeli forces
of the north in order to relieve
their allies, as it were, hamas,
in the gaza strip.
They have also made it clear
they don't want a full-scale
escalation or a full-scale war.
Israel also probably does not
want a full-scale war.
The west as well does not want
it.
All the parties I think are
scrambling to find a way forward
while avoiding a full-scale war.
Geoff: On that point, the
potential path forward, the U.S.
Appears determined to find a
long-term political solution to
the Israeli hamas conflict.
In your view, is that even
possible?
Paul: For the Israel hamas
conflict which involves gaza and
the Palestinians, that is
certainly a very complicated and
difficult pathway forward.
It is noteworthy to say that the
American governments and the
Israeli governments are on
opposite pages.
The current Israeli government
led by prime minister Netanyahu,
which is right wing, their plan
is to consolidate their
occupation of the west bank and
gaza.
Whereas the American plan is to
get over the gaza war and move
towards negotiation towards a
two-state solution.
So, very different trajectories.
Geoff: What would the U.S. Role
be if -- and we should emphasize
if -- this war between Israel
and hamas escalates into a wider
regional conflict?
Paul: The U.S. Has already made
it clear that that is something
it does not want to see happen.
U.S. Diplomats have been
visiting at least Lebanon, which
is the most likely place the
conflict could spread.
In order to negotiate between
the Israelis and Hezbollah, to
avoid a second front to this
wart which would be a front
between Israel and Lebanon.
Yemen on and the houthi movement
there has been a place where
they have been attacks from the
houthis on shipping in the red
sea.
So far it has been fairly
limited.
The U.S. Has led a naval
operation to protect shipping
and most shipping has resumed.
I would say that is largely
being managed.
It is noteworthy that escalation
has not reached the persian gulf
itself.
Which is where much of the
world's energy is exported from.
So far that remains to be the
case.
Geoff: Paul Salem, thank you for
your insights this evening.
Paul: Thank you.
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