President Xi has been flexing on the international stage,
publicly declaring China's preparation for battle as he was sworn
in for an historic third-term at the Communist Party's recent congress,
setting the stage to become president for life.
If that wasn't enough, Xi has placed
six faithful loyalists into China's most powerful political body.
And then there was the awkward removal
of China's former leader, Hu Jintao, during the party congress.
And at an event that is usually planned to the smallest detail
it clearly took many by surprise, and it's still unclear why it happened.
I think this is probably going to remain as one of those mysteries
that we were never able to have a precise answer.
But the moment was symbolic.
Hu Jintao
led the country before Xi and is credited with opening China up to the world.
With Hu Jintao literally removed from the scene.
And China's other great leader, Jiang Zemin, passing away last week.
China has moved into a whole new era.
Here’s a government under Xi Jinping, who is an autocratic ruler,
the likes of which China hasn't seen since Mao Zedong's death in 1976.
Xi has made it clear that he wants China to be the global superpower.
And many say he sees uniting Taiwan, closely allied with the United States,
to the Chinese mainland as a way to prove it.
China considers the neighboring island as a renegade province.
But Taiwan has its own constitution and elects leaders democratically.
And the vast majority of Taiwan wants to keep it that way.
Xi wants his leadership to be defined by this Chinese power, asserted
not just in the South China Sea, but across the world.
But at the moment, his gaze
and the world's, too, is fixed on these protests at home
as his leadership is challenged in a way like never before.
Freedom!
China's severe Zero Covid policy that includes daily testing,
mass quarantine camps and strict lockdowns imposed for a single Covid case
has taken a huge toll on tens of millions of its people for nearly three years.
And it's these measures
that many have blamed for the death of ten people in an apartment block fire.
They say that fire trucks were unable to tackle the blaze because Covid
restrictions meant streets near the building were blocked off.
The tragedy helped kickstart waves of protests across the country.
Not only are they protesting against zero Covid, they're also protesting
for the first time, as far as we know, against the government itself.
In ordinary times, openly criticizing the government in public would mean arrest
or worse.
But now people are challenging Xi's government on the streets.
He is, by his nature, apparently a control freak.
The political system around him allows him to be a control freak.
And Covid comes along as the perfect opportunity
to be a control freak over his entire population.
There's just one problem, and that's human nature.
After fierce protests and pressure, China has now signaled a shift
in its Covid stance as it moves to ease some virus restrictions.
Despite high, daily case numbers, Zero Covid was meant to be one of Xi's
signature achievements proof that China could organize where the West couldn't.
But incessant lockdowns have failed to stop the Omicron variant.
With record levels of Covid in November that have hurt China's once
unstoppable economy, which hit its slowest growth rate in decades.
The social contract of modern China under Xi Jinping -
We leave the politics to you,
you leave the economy to us.
And suddenly that is broken down.
So with people facing economic hardship, they have taken
to the streets, defying Xi in a way he's never seen before.
The whole emphasis of Xi Jinping's rule has been that
China will overtake America in terms of its economic numbers.
A Chinese century. Except Zero Covid, which is such a bonkers
policy, has exposed one problem after another.
And even though China is now easing restrictions at home,
Xi still has big problems on the international stage.
After years of being the factory
of the world, providing us with cheap goods and services,
China's relationship with the US has been severely weakened
in recent years, starting with Donald Trump.
China has been
ripping this country off for 25 years,
for longer than that.
The former president placed sanctions on Chinese trade in 2020
for Beijing's human rights abuses against Uyghur Muslims
and its crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong.
Joe Biden has continued where Donald Trump left off,
calling on manufacturing jobs
to move away from China and back to the United States.
And Washington has repeatedly pledged its support to Taiwan.
Would U.S. forces defend the island?
Yes, if in fact, there was an unprecedented attack.
The two leaders did meet recently at the G20 summit to try and ease tensions.
There need not be a new Cold War.
But no major breakthrough was made.
And recently,
the United States and India held joint training drills on China's border.
Another sign of strained relations.
We're going to see a far more fractious relationship
between China and much of Western liberal democracies.
And so we've Xi facing his first serious test at home and showing
no signs of reducing his ambitions on the global stage,
it raises an obvious question -
Do you think Xi Jinping could use foreign distractions
to try and draw attention away from what's going on with Zero Covid,
particularly with Taiwan?
That is an incredibly risky military thing to do.
Xi Jinping should know that, having looked at how badly
Ukraine has gone for Russia.
If he's got any sense at all, he's looking at Taiwan thinking,
‘No, this is not the destruction I'm looking for.’
And so instead Xi might think it better to play the long game.
I think the best option for Beijing would be biding his time.
Increasing his economic capacity and the military capability
up to a certain point
that the United States is no longer able to contend China's rise
and therefore Taiwan would automatically come back to China one way or another.
The imminent threat might not be war,
but Xi has made himself the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
No one in his inner circle will challenge him.
Meaning nothing is certain about how Xi responds to these tests.
Will he double down like he always does?
Or does the easing of Covid restrictions reveal
a leader showing a glimmer of conciliation?