Good Tuesday afternoon, everybody.
I'm Kajo, You 11 meteorologist Tim
Pandey just here with your tropical
update on June the 20th, 2023.
We've got a named storm out there,
second of the season that is Brett,
Tropical storm at the moment,
barely a tropical storm and a
tropical wave right behind it that's
tagged Invest 93 L Remember invest
stands for investigative area 93,
recycles 90 to 99 just to keep track.
And the L signifies that it
is in the Atlantic Basin.
All right,
here's the latest tropical headlines
Brett developed yesterday evening.
It's the second named storm of
the season behind Arlene that
developed earlier this month.
Now the forecast call for a weaker storm.
That's a change from when we
last talked yesterday.
It was forecast to become the.
The first hurricane of the season that
now is looking less likely because
it's struggling with wind shear.
Even though moderate,
it is still tilting the system and
some dry air being ingested into
the core 93 L close behind it.
This is now likely to develop into a
named storm within the next seven days.
Those development outstand at 80%.
The next name on the list would be Cindy.
So typically in June as we
talked about yesterday,
these are the areas that we
look for tropical development.
Early in the season, the Gulf of Mexico,
the far western Caribbean
and the Southwest Atlantic,
right along the Southeast coast
of the United States,
that area right now is completely quiet.
We're not watching any areas
of concern in those spots.
However,
the main development region that
typically is reserved for later in the
season when things really start to get going,
waves come off the African
coast and develop quickly.
We're seeing that area much more
active than is typically expected
this time of the year with Tropical
Storm Brett developing there it is.
Still about 1000 miles off to
the east of the Leeward Island,
So a lot of time before that gets there.
Likely not until Thursday
afternoon and Thursday evening.
And then we've got 93 L You can see the
development odds there now standing at 80%.
All right,
let's look at it on satellite imagery now.
We'll start off with the
infrared on Tropical Storm Brett.
Remember,
this is the infrared satellite
imagery that takes temperatures.
Of the cloud tops and why that's important.
When we get the colder cloud tops that
indicates to us the convection is
stronger higher up in the atmosphere
and the system is strengthening.
12 hour loop here does show some
whites and black shades showing on
up that is colder cloud tops meaning
convection is a little bit stronger.
Take note of what's happening here
in the last couple frames and excuse
the blip that you'll see here,
that's a an error in the overall
run of the satellite imagery,
but notice in the last frame
here you'll see a.
Impulse fire up here with some
convection right near the
center. You see that there,
even though it has trended a little
bit weaker or almost stagnant
in terms of intensification,
that could be the first sign of
its trying to get it's a flare up
of convection going once again.
However, it is running up against
two things that we talked about.
We're not an influence on it yesterday.
That are today and that's going
to be wind shear and some dry air
getting pulled into the system.
You can see evidence of the wind shear.
It's not terribly strong, but it is moderate.
Coming in out of the southwest.
You see these cloud tops here getting
blown from the southwest to the
northeast orienting that you can see
here on the visible that the exposed
low level center is peeking out from
time to time off to the West of all
the convection here that's displaced.
Off to the east and northeast of
that center there. Will it realign?
Certainly could do so.
And that flare up of convection near the
center may be the beginning stages of that.
But right now you can see some wind shear
interacting with that and some dry air too.
That's located just off to
the West of that center.
So here's the updated forecast track
from the National Hurricane Center.
Again, still at 40 mile per hour winds,
you need 39 mph greater to
become a tropical storm,
so it's just barely at that threshold.
But the changes here are in the cone.
It was forecast to become a hurricane
before potentially impacting the
Leeward Islands later on this week.
That is no longer in the forecast to do
so getting up to 65 mile per hour winds,
a higher end tropical storm before
impacting areas possibly like Barbados,
Martinique and areas and islands
of the Leeward Islands and Windward
Islands before it gets into the
Eastern Caribbean and then eventually
starts to weaken as it does,
likely encounters an increased
wind shear there.
Now right behind it,
off to the east of the of Tropical Storm,
Brett,
we've got Invest 93 L and you see
the development odds here within two
days at 70% still considered high and
at 80% within the next seven days.
Look at it on infrared satellite here.
If I wasn't plotting where the
center is supposedly located,
you wouldn't really be able to tell.
It's just some basically a big cluster
of disorganized thunderstorm activity
and that thunderstorm activity is.
Pretty much benign at the moment.
Then we switch it over to visible
satellite and you could still see
the remnants of a broad spin.
So the overall structure is there once
it moves into a more favorable environment,
that's why the odds of it
developing are higher.
And again the next name on
that list would be Cindy.
So what are the computer models
See this doing, this is 93 hour.
We're getting all the spaghetti
plots in on this now,
pretty much a westward track,
very similar to what Brett's doing now.
But models do indicate this may
become a little bit stronger.
That being said, it would take a little
more of a northwesterly trajectory,
possibly missing the Northern,
Leeward and Windward islands
and looping on out to sea.
It's a possibility.
Again, it's several days out,
hasn't even developed yet,
but these are the early runs on the
computer models, indicating A recur.
We'll have to watch it carefully though,
as we go through time.
That's the latest here on the Tropics.
You got a like and follow for
tropical updates all season long.
Again, I'm meteorologist Tim Pandages.
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We'll see you again tomorrow.