>> ALL RIGHT.
VLADIMIR PUTIN ISN’T ONLY
SAYING HE’S RULING OUT A PEACE
DEAL WITH UKRAINE, HE’S, WELL,
GETTING MORE TROOPS, CALLING UP
ANOTHER 137,000 OF THEM
PRESUMABLY HEADED TO UKRAINE.
JACK KEANE ON THIS, A FOUR STAR
GENERAL.
OUR STRATEGIC ANALYST.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE ACTIONS
ON HIS PART?
>> I THINK THE RUSSIANS HAVE
MADE ANOTHER STRATEGIC SHIFT.
PHASE ONE THEY TRIED TO TAKE
THE CAPITAL CITY AND THEY
FAILED IN THAT AND UKRAINE
SUCCEEDED DRIVING THEM OUT.
PHASE TWO, FOCUSED ON THE
DONBAS REGION AND THEY WERE
TRYING TO TAKE ALL OF IT, ONLY
TAKEN THE EASTERN PART OF IT
AND THE ATTACK HAS ESSENTIALLY
STALLED.
I THINK WHAT’S HAPPENING HERE,
MR. PUTIN RECOGNIZES, ALONG
WITH HIS GENERALS, THAT THEY
ARE IN A PROTRACTED WAR THAT
THIS IS NOT GOING TO GO AWAY IN
A FEW WEEKS OR MONTHS, THAT
THEY HAVE GOT TO BE COMMITTED
FOR A NUMBER OF YEARS.
AND I THINK THAT THAT IS WHERE
THEY ARE NOW, NEIL.
AND THE 137,000 IS TESTIMONY TO
THAT.
THEY HAVEN’T GONE TO FULL
MOBILIZATION, WHICH WOULD
INDICATE THE SERIOUSNESS OF
THEIR PROBLEMS, BUT THEY DON’T
WANT TO FLAG THAT SERIOUSNESS
TO THE POPULATION AT HOME AND
THAT’S WHY HE STAYED AWAY FROM
THAT, BUT I THINK THAT WHAT
THEY’RE THINKING IN THEIR
MINDS, THAT NOW THEY HAVE TO
COMMIT TO A WAR OF ATTRITION
THAT WILL TAKE YEARS AND WEAR
DOWN THE UKRAINIAN PEOPLE.
THE ECONOMY CERTAINLY IS GOING
TO GET WORSE.
CERTAINLY THE CASUALTIES
THEMSELVES TO THE CIVILIANS
WITH THE CONTINUOUS AIR AND
MISSILE ATTACK AND THEN THE
CASUALTIES TO THE UKRAINIAN
SOLDIERS AND IMPACTS THAT’S
HAVING ON THE FAMILIES AND THE
POPULATION.
THEY’RE COUNTING THAT THIS WILL
WEAR DOWN UKRAINIAN PEOPLE AND
THE OTHER THING THAT THEY’RE
COUNTING ON IS THAT, AS THEY
UKRAINIAN SOLDIERS AND UKRAINE
DOESN’T TELL US WHAT THE
CASUALTIES FIGURES ARE, THAT
WILL TAKE A TOLL ON UKRAINE
BECAUSE HE KNOWS, RUSSIANS KNOW
THEY CAN REPLACE THEIR SOLDIERS
MUCH MORE READILY THAN THE
UKRAINIANS CAN.
SO, I THINK THAT’S WHERE THEY
ARE.
THE UKRAINIANS, HOWEVER, KNOW
FULL WELL THERE’S AN
OPPORTUNITY HERE IN FRONT OF
THEM AND WE’VE BEEN TALKING
ABOUT THE SO-CALLED COUNTER
OFFENSIVE.
THERE SEEMS TO BE SOME
DISAGREEMENT STRATEGICALLY
INSIDE OF UKRAINE, THE NATIONAL
LEADERS WANT TO MOVE AS SOON AS
POSSIBLE AND BE ABLE TO SHOW A
VICTORY IN TERMS OF TAKING
TERRITORY BACK.
THE MILITARY IS MUCH MORE
CAUTIOUS ABOUT THIS BECAUSE
THEY WANT TO BE ABLE TO BUILD
THEIR FORCES UP.
THEY DOESN’T WANT TO GO INTO
THE CITY WHERE THE FIGHT WILL
LIKELY TAKE PLACE AND GO BLOCK
BY BLOCK, AND YOU SEE A COUPLE
OF THINGS HAPPENING.
AND YOU LEVEL THE BRIDGES THAT
SERVE THAT CITY AND IMPACT THE
SUPPLIES.
THEY’RE BOMBING AND CONDUCTING
ESPIONAGE ATTACKS AT THE DEEP
SUPPLY DEEP POES THAT ARE IN
CRIMEA, ALSO TO REDUCE THE
CAPABILITIES SUPPORTED.
I DO THINK EVENTUALLY WE’LL SEE
A COUNTER OFFENSIVE TAKE PLACE,
BUT IT’S LIKELY AFTER THE
MILITARY IS ABLE TO WEAR DOWN
THE DEFENDERS AND MAKE THAT
OFFENSIVE OPERATION LESS
CASUALTY PRODUCING FOR THEM IN
THE LONG RUN.
THAT’S KIND OF WHERE WE ARE AND
WHAT AND IT LOOKS STRATEGICALLY
LIKE ON BOTH SIDES.
>> YOU KNOW, GENERAL, A
REMINDER, IT WASN’T A BIG OR
WELL-COVERED STORY, BUT THIS
DIARY THAT WAS MADE PUBLIC BY A
FRUSTRATED RUSSIAN SOLDIER WHO
SHOWED HIS OWN FRUSTRATION WITH
A WEAPON THAT DIDN’T WORK AND
OTHER FELLOW, AND SOLDIERS
WEAPONS THAT DIDN’T WORK, AND
THE CASE OF WHAT THEY HAD TO
TAKE WITH THEM DOWN TO THEIR
UNIFORMS AND HE JUST WANTED TO
GET IT OUT THERE THAT THEY’RE
NOT HAPPY WITH THIS MISSION, A
GOOD MANY OF THEM DON’T KNOW
WHAT’S BEHIND THE MISSION, JUST
THAT THEY’RE FRUSTRATED BY IT.
I’M JUST WONDERING WHETHER THIS
IS SOMETHING PUBLICINGBUBBLING
UNDERNEATH THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN
HAS TO WORRY ABOUT?
>> OH, YEAH, YOU PUT YOUR
FINGER ON ONE OF THE BIGGEST
PROBLEMS THAT THEY HAVE.
THAT IS THE WILL TO FIGHT.
UKRAINIANS HAVE THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT THE RUSSIANS
DO NOT.
LOOK IT, THIS IS AN
AUTHORITARIAN REGIME THAT TOOK
NO COUNSEL FOR SOME OF WHAT
THEY WERE DOING.
SOME THOUGHT THEY WERE GOING ON
A TRAINING EXERCISE AT THE
OUTSET OF THIS.
AND MANY OF THEM, THEY PUT THEM
RIGHT INTO THE FIGHT RIGHT OUT
OF BASIC TRAINING AND A LOT OF
THEM WERE CLEARLY NOT PREPARED
FOR ANYTHING ON A SCALE FOR
YOU’VE SEEN.
THEY’VE SEEN THE TACTICAL
LEADERS AND PEOPLE SAYING GO
HERE, GO THERE.
THEY’VE SEEN THEIR TACTICAL
LEADERS FOLD UNDER PRESSURE AS
WELL.
SO THERE’S HUGE MORALE PROBLEMS
INSIDE THIS FORCE AND RIGHT, WE
DON’T TALK ABOUT IT VERY MUCH,
BUT IT’S A MAJOR ISSUE FOR THE
RUSSIAN MILITARY.
NEIL: GENERAL, THANK YOU VERY,
VERY MUCH.
AS AN END NOTE, I JUST WANT TO
SHARE AFTER THE GENERAL HERE,
WE DID HEAR THIS MORNING THAT THE UKRAINE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
THE UKRAINE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
AT ZACK IT’S BACK ONLINE, AND