We've been awaiting the results
from the census and
we now have a little bit of data
to jump into including such little
tidbits like the US has now grown
over the past decade by about 7.4%.
That is the least that it has
grown in a period of a decade for
about eight decades still seems
like it's growing a lot, but
that does stand out.
And of course, while you have
overall growth you also
have shifting populations from some
areas of the country to others.
The South and
the West have been growing more
than other parts of the US but
beyond that, some of the.
I would say the I don't know, I
guess most interesting conversation
that's been going on so
far since the news
broke this morning is about.
The changing racial demographics,
the United States as well
as how this might intersect with
gerrymandering and
the distribution of political power
in the near future.
So, let's put up a graph that's
going to show you how different
racial categories again self
reported racial
categories in the census have
been shifting as multiple,
I believe sensai have now passed.
Non Hispanic white respondents have
dropped below 60% for
the first time in history.
And you can see other racial
categories either growing or
staying around the same percentage.
Most notably perhaps the percentage
of the population identifying as
Asian has risen from just 2.8% back
in 1990 to 6.1% in 2020.
Still a small segment of
the population, but
more than twice as large as it was.
And so this is obviously depending
on where you sit politically
generating either sort of
a conversation about the fact
that the United States is
diversifying and all that.
Or I've already seen a little bit
of the right wing starting to freak
out about it.
And so that's probably our
political reality going forward.
We'll get into the political
implications, but in terms of
the rate of growth the way people
are moving around the country and
the changing percentages of sort of
racial demographics.
What are some
of your thoughts Michael?
>> The stuff that you're
talking about now is fascinating to
see that Phoenix has now passed.
Philadelphia, for example,
is the fifth largest city in
the country and that kind of,
statistical stuff I find amazing.
The other side of this is I don't
think enough people are talking
about this.
That there was a real reluctance
on the part of many in this country
to take part in this census,
partly because there's a fear.
That at the time when this was
being issued that the Trump
administration was going to come
down on immigrants because illegal
and legal immigrants are to
fill out the census.
It has nothing to do with your
status here.
It's who is here and
where they are.
And so I have to assume
that there was some underreporting
of those numbers and
they may have sort of factored that
in a way that the census takers in
the Census Bureau does.
But I have to think that a lot
of this is conservative, and
these cities and states
are going to see further changes if
there is any kind of softening.
And I qouldn't presume that there
would be in the way that
the argument is made before
the the next census.
But I think it's fascinating to see
where people are right now.
And where Hispanic majorities are
growing around the country and in
point of fact, where they're not.
And then I know you're going to get
to the politics.
You look at some of these states
that have governors who are so
upset about immigration, and they
have 1, 2, 3, 6% Latin population
in those state, it's surprising.
>> This is very interesting.
I was primarily a little bit
shocked.
I guess by the fact that
the largest growth that they saw in
any group is mixed race.
And it really says that a lot of
people in our nation
are not adhering to the generations
the past those restrictions of only
white people can be with white
people, black people, black people.
Those antiquated Waited ideologies
are not holding steadfast and
people are living their lives.
They're loving people who they love
regardless of color and
that's a beautiful thing.
But at the same time we're going to
see a lot of the white supremacy
pushers.
Push a little backlash because they
want to maintain
that dominance in numbers.
And when we truly,
look at those numbers,
I think Michael's, right?
That they are conservative because
we also have to realize that
when it comes to race,
there's no category for brown.
So, you might have an individual
who is like, let's say something
from the Middle East,
maybe some from London.
You give him a box to check and
he's going to have to check white.
So we have to realize that white
numbers are already inflated to
begin with, >> Yeah >> When
it comes to actually how our nation
operates when it comes to race.
And so when you actually strip it
down and look at the truth but
it definitely seems that white
is very much in the minority.
>> Yeah, I'm glad that
you point out.
First of all, I'm glad that we have
the data on people identifying as
more than one race.
But then, even with that,
of course, these labels are.
There's a ton of problems with
the way that it's historically
been done and that even currently,
so yeah, there's a lot that we
don't know necessarily.
I'm like Michael,
I love diving into the numbers,
but I can only imagine how much
is actually being washed away as in
the example that Adrian just used.
Just want to throw out I did see
the under 18 population is now
majority people of color for
the first time that 52.7% not
surprising considering the other
numbers that we're looking at here.
As Michael pointed out,
Philadelphia has dropped
below Phoenix,
but also all 10 of the largest US
cities saw their populations
rise in the past decade.
I think I've read that Buffalo's
population went up for
the first time in many decades.
Three big cities in Texas Houston,
San Antonio and Dallas outpaced
the national average.
We'll see what a couple of years
with their energy grid does
to all of these new transplants
from other states.
New York City grew by nearly 8%
defying predictions that its
population was on the decline.
Now it is possible that some people
left during the pandemic after
filling out the census, I guess but
it hardly seems as if most of
New York is running away.
But I want to get into the politics
too because we can't talk about
the census without wondering what
effect it's going to have on the
distribution of political power.
We're just getting some initial
reactions from people
to do sort of this work.
But according to Nate Cone
the data was less favorable
to Republicans than some experts
expected with rural areas.
And white people share
the population is shrinking while
traditionally Democratic cities and
increasingly democratic
suburbs grew.
But, it's also pointed out that
Republican-controlled legislatures
will still get to redraw 187
compared to Democrats' 84.
And so sure, the raw numbers might
not be exactly what the Republicans
would hope, but they're still
the ones who are going to be
working with those raw numbers.
And of course the judiciary that's
going to be Approving or
denying a lot of these maps
that we're going to be seeing.
Not far from the future is far more
conservative than it was after a
few years of the Trump presidency.
So, Michael, how like, I know you
probably had some expectations go
into this process about how it
might affect the distribution of
congressional seats and all that.
Has your opinion changed at all now
that you're seeing
some of the data.
>> It might for me looking at
the data my opinion hasn't changed
from the people from me looking at
the people who I trust to look at
this data certainly it has.
And I think when you look at
a lot of the people who look at
redistricting and gerrymandering
and how Texas is the most glaring
example right 23 36 house seats
are held by Republicans in Texas.
They're going to be two more house
seats there you see
where these population shifts.
Four out of the ten largest growing
cities in the country are our
suburbs in Texas, so
it's Frisco and McKinney and
Conroe and a fourth one in Texas.
So you're going to
see the republicans there say okay,
you know what, instead of having
parts of a city like Austin have
republican representation.
And some democratic representation
let's just make a democratic
district in Austin.
And that way we can move it out and
we can get our two seats outside of
Austin and
outside of San Antonio or
they can just be pure Republicans.
So they get to sort of for
the next ten years say we're going
to have these republican seats
that's going to go on in Texas
may go on in Florida to a degree.
But some of the other states I
think are there's a bit
of a surprise as to how much
Republicans thought they were going
to have and what they what they're
not going to have.
So that's why I think you see
Nate Cone and Decor Santee and
some of the others saying that
look, this wasn't as as good for
Republicans as they thought it was
going to be >> I think
that we're going to see a lot
more action from political leaders
who lean more toward the right and
also in support of things,
that would continue to maintain
white supremacy as we recently saw.
With the federal government
shooting down that CRT training
bill for federal workers and
how that impacts us.
The fact is that you're going to
have people on both sides of
the aisle who are concerned.
That white people will
lose their supremacy, lose their
dominance in this country.
And as a result, I think we're
going to have a lot of subtle forms
of backlash, and you're going to
see people essentially aligned with
groups that they generally haven't
aligned with because of
the whole racial scarcity field.
The need to maintain power.
And so, I think it would be very
interesting to see how politics
ends up playing out in the next
few years.
>> Yeah-. >> would add to that,
how the powers used to be,
when the agencies maintain power.
It is important to know that,
even though you may have Democrats
on one side who aren't happy with
the fact that it's the whitening of
America is stopping.
I think that they're also motivated
by that they want to stay in power
and they know that in order to stay
in power, that it's important to
make sure that these districts
are protecting democrats and that.
Its kind of
I would be a little less suspicious
of Democrats in this case because
they want to protect their power.
So for the wrong reason I'm less
suspicious.
>> Mike 0 like really fast because
we've been talking about how
this is going to play into
gerrymandering he gave an example
of how it might play out in Austin,
but we could see a similar sort of
thing going on in Georgia and
that sort of thing.
And obviously the fears are about
republicans gerrymandering.
Because when we look at the biggest
differences between like Share of
congressional seats that go to
a party and their actual support
among the populace.
The worst examples generally seem
to be Republican.
But of course,
Democrats are going to be trying
to make the most of these numbers
as well in the states where
they have the ability to do so.
Now we could just avoid
the whole thing.
Not allow the gerrymandering
bypassing something like for the
people act which is entirely within
the power of the democrats to do if
they actually all wanted to do it.
Does anything about this change
the likelihood of that bill
passed Passing.
>> I would say no I yes, if
the bill is going to pass is better
way to say if the bill is going to
pass if something like the for
the people act is going to pass,
it's going to take a blatant result
coming from the next set
of redistricting results.
So I think that the heightened
awareness is important.
And then when you see the sort of
look, if you had done this,
this wouldn't have happened
right now it's all theoretical.
Of course it's in action, but
in terms of people seeing
what can happen by not doing it,
I think that will have an effect.
So I think there's a reason to
think that it's imminent.
Important to keep an eye on
this one other thing to add and
I know we're probably quick here.
We think about new districts,
right we think about what I talked
about in Texas, but California
which is so blue rich right now.
After Gavin Newsom
deals with his recall election,
there are districts that went
Republican in 2020 that had been
democratic in California.
Those can be redrawn to be
democratic friendly, and
that's where Democrats can get some
of those seats back.
You don't need new seats
necessarily to redistrict their
states where that can
happen as well.
Yeah, well and demonstrating
that Democrats to do it as well I
personally think we should- >> Of
course, [UNKNOWN >> Just get
rid of the whole thing and
>> a 100%, >> Have 100 districts
that make some rational sense, but
I guess that now you look at Iowa,
Iowa has four districts or
maybe there's a fifth.
But they're it's basically a square
like it crosses the weight and
they're all evenly divided.
It's a beautiful districted state.
>> I don't trust that either.
Anyway, [LAUGH] A re there really
even numbers of people in those for
Michael are you sure that.