Is the path to cruising starting in the United States about to get
much simpler, and much much faster? And have the test cruises already been done?
Cruise industry leaders say yes to both of these.
Find out what is going on, as I am explore the 4 factors coming together
to driving this new optimism for cruising out of the United States
in this latest cruise update, and what it means for you as a cruiser.
By the way, if you are new to my channel, welcome aboard. I am Gary Bembridge and I'm here
to help you make it easier to find, plan and have those amazing cruise vacations
you are dreaming of. So, with that in mind let's get going.
With the USA making fast vaccine progress, not far behind the UK,
and with the Administration goal of having every adult offered a vaccine by July,
what impact is this expected to have on cruising opening timing?
There is, of course, some US cruising restarting linked to this vaccine progress.
In the United States, lines not covered by the CDC rules which only cover ships carrying over
250 people, are starting up. They all have cited vaccine progress as making
it possible. UnCruise will be sailing in Alaska for vaccinated adults. American Steamboat Cruise
Line has resumed and will require vaccines from July, as will their sister Victory Cruise Line
Embolden by roll out progress, Royal Caribbean,
Celebrity and Crystal are opening cruising out of the Caribbean from Nassau and St Maarten
for vaccinated US adults, and for Royal Caribbean and Celebrity negative testing under 18s too
Norwegian Cruise Line may be about to follow, as they have just cancelled
existing itineraries for Norwegian Encore, Norwegian Joy and Norwegian
Jade until end October, freeing them up for what they call "new deployments"
However, while this is a welcome development, it is small scale and niche
really. Almost a distraction from the main goal of cruising starting up out of the USA.
Currently, the restart of cruising in the United States is based on the CDC (Centers
For Disease Control and Prevention) Framework For Conditional Sailing issued some 5 months ago.
It has, as we all know, stalled as they have not issued the technical specifications to run
test simulated cruises to try out and stress test the new embarkation,
cruise and disembarkation processes.
Pressed in a recent Senate committee appearance, CDC Director Rochelle
Walensky said she's unable to give a timeline for those details to be issued. Asked if would
be a month, three months, anytime this year, she refused to be drawn.
People were dismayed just a few days later when
the CDC issued a pretty stock statement saying the Framework
would stay in place. This was in response to a request by CLIA to open cruising as soon as July
However, this may not be bad news.
Cruise Line leaders believe that there is going to be
a change in approach for cruising resumption in the USA.
Richard Fain, who runs the Royal Caribbean Group said in one of his recent video updates (quote)
"The pace of science has simply overcome
that process" when referring to the Framework stages and requirements.
Why? First of all, there is a huge amount of data on how the protocols and process
work in real life already available which may make the need for test cruises less essential.
Richard Fain points out that test cruises have effectively
taken place. Around the world over 350,000 people have now cruised since the start of the pandemic.
For Royal Caribbean, there have been over 150,000 passengers on 100,000 cruises.
There have been only 10 positive cases identified on these cruises. They were early and quickly
identified due to their protocols through the testing, on-going temperature checks. and so on.
Through contact tracing they were able to identify close contacts and screen them,
and were able to not have major disruption to rest of the cruise. The partnerships with local
authorities and contracted on-land medical, quarantine and arrangements to get people
home meant this was all done in a way that did not cause a drain on local resources.
As Richard Fain said in his video (quote) "In essence, we've just had 100,000 test cruises
and demonstrated that the process works..... It is the most powerful
and reliable evidence in multiple real-world settings"
But secondly, even more importantly, Richard Fain (as other leaders have
done) points out that the CDC Framework For Conditional Sailing was created in a very
different time - before the more accurate testing was available, and before vaccines.
He argues this renders much of the Framework out of date, and believes that if you look at
what the CDC is already doing (which is to start issuing new advice based on vaccines)
that a rethink is imminent on travel and cruising.
He says (quote) "The Conditional Sail Order was a very positive step
at the time, but that time has passed. We don't know what the CDC is contemplating to address
this very different set of circumstances, but just as they (and other public health officials
are doing elsewhere) we expect they will adjust to the changes that have been and are taking place"
Thirdly, despite this there is no suggestion or thinking that the CDC and lines will drop the
protocols proposed as cruising re-opens, they will just add vaccines to make it even safer
and less risk. Lines plan to keep them to retain the proven model used to date around the world
Around the world, cruising still has, and will have when it opens
in the UK for example, reduced capacity, testing before, social distancing measures,
masks when distancing not possible (especially inside),
no self-service dining, cruise-line only excursions to maintain the bubble and so on.
So, even as cruising returns in the USA it will not be cruising back to how it
was. That may come later. It is really important that travellers understand this.
Fourthly, the lines have all pretty much in the USA conceded that, certainly as they resume,
that passengers and crew will have to be vaccinated. All cruises launched have
incorporated this, even before the CDC has taken a view on its role for travel.
Asked if he thought the CDC was going to require vaccines to approve USA cruising,
Richard Fain hinted he felt that it was likely. he said:
"We have announced three cruises that will require vaccinations for all adults.
And there are likely to be more... Vaccines set the stage for whatever we do, and all of our
efforts are to make our cruises safer. Today a vaccine approach makes much more sense"
However, this will all still take time. Lines are increasingly hopeful
that they will be able to sail to some limited sailings in the summer.
Though all including Arnold Donald of Carnival Group, Xx Xx of Norwegian Group and Richard Fain
keep saying that it takes months to reactivate a ship, so they not talking about restarting in the
US right away. But hope the CDC will shift so they can plan now for summer sailings on a few ships.
They are using the US President's July timeline for some return to normality
as rallying call and timeline too, As Richard fain said (quote) "We can be sailing in time to
meet President Biden's goal of re-opening society in time for the 4th of July"
CLIA (Cruise Line Association) have taken up the call for cruising to be allowed by July. In their
statement calling for this they also referred to the real-life proof from around the world
and argue that vaccine roll out should trigger cruising opening, and they said
(quote) "The outdated Framework for Conditional Sailing, which was issued almost five months ago,
does not reflect the industry’s proven advancements and success operating in other
parts of the world, nor the advent of vaccines, and unfairly treats cruises differently."
So much has changed since October when the Framework For Conditional Sailing was put
in place, and it is clear that vaccines are now the game-changer and the plans will have
to change to factor this in. To ignore it would be strange and illogical. Especially when the
US President has been so public about his goal to use vaccines to get the United States population
back to doing the things they miss and want to do heading into summer and by and from 4 July.
We have seen Israel and the UK, move to take account of their vaccines progress, and I believe
that the industry is right to expect the USA to do the same sometime soon.
It is important to understand the protocols that will be faced as cruising returns,
be it out of Israel, the UK, those new Royal Caribbean, Crystal and Celebrity cruises home
porting in the Caribbean and eventually in the USA. I have created a playlist
of 2 essential videos here that you should watch right now to find that out.