Tensions between the United States and Iran have escalated sharply in recent weeks and
there are legitimate concerns that the countries are inching towards a conflict.
President Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal that world powers had reached with Iran in
2015 and has imposed severe economic sanctions on Iran.
Trump administration has ordered 1,500 additional troops to the Persian Gulf apart from deploying
military assets like USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group & Patriot air defense
batteries.
In case a war breaks out, the Strait of Hormuz will play a pivotal role in defining the military
planning of both the nations.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes why Strait of Hormuz won’t be able to save Iran
from American naval might?
Let’s get started.
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The Strait of Hormuz is a strait between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
It provides the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the open ocean.
It is one of the world's most strategically important choke points.
On the north coast lies Iran and on the south coast the United Arab Emirates and Musandam,
an exclave of Oman.
At its narrowest, the strait has a width of only 21 nautical miles or 39 km.
Around 33% of the world’s liquefied natural gas and almost 20% of total global oil production
passes through the strait making it one of the most important sea routes.
Because of its narrow width, many analysts think that it can be easily secured and Iran
will be able to inflict massive damage to any force trying to invade it through this
passage.
The belief has been strengthened by many studies and Iran's naval prowess especially its capacity
to defend the strait has been acknowledged by even its foes.
In a Sep 11, 2008 report, the Washington Institute for the Near East Policy said that in the
two decades since the Iraqi imposed war on Iran, the IRGC has excelled in naval capabilities
and is able to wage unique asymmetric warfare against larger naval forces.
According to the report, the IRGC Navy has been transformed into a highly motivated,
well-equipped, and well-financed force and is effectively in control of the world’s
oil lifeline, the Strait of Hormuz.
The Strait of Hormuz is tactically suited for asymmetric warfare because it is a choke
point.
Iran has hundreds of fast boats some of which carry anti-ship missile whereas others carry
suicide payloads.
These boats are no match to American warships in the open ocean but in constrained areas
like in the Strait of Hormuz, they can be a potent adversary.
Being small in size, they can be maneuvered easily and the high speed makes them a difficult
target.
Multiple vessels of this kind attacking a warship from different directions could be
difficult to defend against.
While the threat that small boats pose to major warships has been apparent for some
time, the Pentagon’s Millennium Challenge 2002 exercise brought the issue to mainstream
attention.
In that controversial exercise, small fast boats carrying suicide payloads inflicted
heavy damage on U.S. naval forces.
Iran also has a decent number of launchers stationed along the shoreline that can fire
different kinds of anti-ship missiles.
The most potent of these is thought to be the Qader missile.
The Qader supersonic missile developed by Iran has a range of about 185 miles or 300
km, is self-guided, and can maneuver to lock onto a moving target.
The missile is cheap, easy to launch and can be deployed in “swarms.”
It is a formidable challenge for any adversary.
Any American offensive on Iran will first try to gain air superiority and this is where
American Nimitz class aircraft carriers will come into play.
The Nimitz-class supercarriers are a class of 10 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers in
service with the United States Navy, apart from that US has recently commissioned the
USS Gerald Ford.
All these have a displacement of around 100,000 tons, and an overall length of 332.8 m (1,092 feet).
To give viewers a perspective, it is about 3 football fields long.
These are nuclear powered, have practically unlimited endurance and hence can be used
to project power far off from U.S mainland.
The Nimitz class carrier's main offensive force consists of the F/A-18 Super Hornet.
Each supercarrier can carry around 50 of these.
F/A-18 will be the trump card of U.S Navy when it comes to gaining air dominance.
Apart from these, the carriers have EA-18G Growler & E-2C Hawkeye.
The EA-18G Growler is an airborne electronic attack (AEA) aircraft.
It is capable of electronic attack (EA) and Suppression of Enemy Air Defence (SEAD), particularly
at the start and on-going early stages of hostilities.
Northrop Grumman’s E-2C Hawkeye is a carrier-capable AWACS aircraft.
It is designed to give long-range warning of incoming aerial threats and has a secondary
role of command and control.
The U.S strike force will consist of several submarines and surface combatants.
Us Navy has 17 Virginia class, 32 Los Angeles-class submarine, 3 Seawolf class attack subs in
active service apart from 18 Ohio class Ballistic missile Submarines.
It also posses 66 Arleigh Burke-class destroyer and 22 Ticonderoga-class cruisers.
These are multi-role warships capable of Anti Aircraft Warfare (AAW), Anti Submarine Warfare
(ASW), Anti Surface Warfare (ASuW) and Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD).
F/A-18 jets are twin-engine, supersonic, all-weather carrier-capable 4th generation multirole fighter aircraft.
They have a payload of 7700 kg or 17000 lbs which can be used to carry ground attack weapons
as well as air-to-air missiles.
The versatility of the aircraft can be gauged from the fact that on the first day of Operation
Desert Storm, two F/A-18 , each carrying four 2,000 lb. bombs, shot down 2 Iraqi Migs and
then proceeded to deliver their bombs on target.
The important point here is that it has a combat radius of 390 nmi or around 722 km.
The range can be significantly enhanced using external fuel tanks or with mid-air refueling.
So, to launch an attack an American supercarrier will not need to enter the Strait of Hormuz
in the first place.
Iranian Navy has about 400 vessels.
It is considered a brown water navy and operates mainly within the 50 km or 30 miles exclusion
zone.
It neither has a destroyer nor an aircraft carrier or a nuclear powered submarine.
There are 6 frigates & 3 corvettes.
These warships can’t match the American naval assets in the open sea.
Iran’s air force consists of 190 fighter aircraft such as US-made Northrop F5s, F-4
Phantom II, Grumman F-14 and Russian made Sukhoi Su-22, Sukhoi Su-24, and MiG-29
The MiG-29 is the most modern fighter and Iran operates approximately only 25 of these.
The air-to-air missiles equipping these fighters are far older in technology compared to what
the American F/A-18 will be equipped with.
The asymmetric weapons which are ideal for the strait will not be of much use either
when in the open ocean.
The speed boats will be shred to pieces by the close in weapon systems of the American
flotilla.
Qader missiles will not able able to engage the American warships as it will be constrained
by its limited range.
The missile also has limited maneuverability as it has small fins to reduce drag during
supersonic flight.
The Evolved Sea Sparrow Missiles (ESSM) which is the primary air defense system against
incoming missiles likes Qader should be able to defend the vessel even if Iran manages
to fire some of those.
Also, if the some get through, the missile is unlikely to cause crippling damage as it
only has 200 kg or 440 lbs warhead.
Viewers may note that American supercarriers have Kevlar protection in vital parts and
also are designed with compartments and the damaged parts can be sealed off.
So, if American forces don’t enter the Strait of Hormuz there is very little Iran can do
but America military can attack Iran without entering the strait.
Keeping this in view, it is safe to believe that Strait of Hormuz won’t be able to save Iran.