ERODING WORKFORCE GROWTH WE
CAN ADDRESS IT WE HAVE TO MAKE
POLICY DECISIONS TO ADDRESS
IT.
>> LET ME ASK YOU A LOT OF
PEOPLE COME ON THIS PROGRAM
THEY SAY THE BIGGEST RISK TO
GROWTH IN THE ECONOMY IS
FEDERAL RESERVE PB BECAUSE,
THEY ARE NOT SURE IF FED IS
ABLE TO GET THROUGH THIS
MOMENT IN TIME, WHERE YOU ARE
WINDING DOWN 4 1/2
TRILLION-DOLLAR BALANCE SHEET
AND TALKING ABOUT RAISING
INTEREST RATES, THREE TIMES
THIS YEAR, MAYBE IF YOU ARE
TALKING ABOUT GROWTH, SLOWING
TO 1 3/4% YOU DON'T WANT TOO
MANY RATE HIKES.
>> MY ONLY VIEW I DO BELIEVE
FOR THIS YEAR, WE SHOULD DO
TWO MORE RATE HIKES, THREE FOR
THE YEAR I THINK THE PATH OF
RATE INCREASES IS PROBABLY
GOING TO BE FLATTER THAN
PEOPLE ARE ACCUSTOMED TO ONE
OF THE REASONS THIS MODERATING
OUT-YEAR GROWTH SO I THINK
THAT THE CHALLENGE THAT TO ME,
FOR THE FED, AND ONE OF MY
CHALLENGES IS TO WE I THINK
SHOULD BE REMOVING THE FED
INCREASING FED FUNDS RATE BUT
WE HAVE TO DO IT PATIENTLY
GRADUALLY BECAUSE WE'VE A
NUMBER OF STRUCTURAL HEADWINDS
NOT GOING AWAY.
>> BALANCE SHEET UNWIND HOW
MUCH OF A WORRY.
>> I ACTUALLY THINK THE WAY WE
DESIGNED IT IS TO BE VERY
GRADUAL, AND WE DON'T SELL
SECURITIES WE JUST DON'T
REPLACE THEM AS THEY MATURE IF
YOU LOOK AT WHAT PERCENTAGE OF
TREASURYS TO MORTGAGE-BACKED
SECURITIES RELATIVELY SMALL
PERCENTAGE SO I THINK THE
RUNDOWN OF THE BALANCE SHEET
SHOULD BE DOABLE I AM A LITTLE
LESS CONCERNED ABOUT THAT.
>> LET ME ASK YOU ABOUT NEWS
THIS WEEK PRESIDENT TRUMP
ANNOUNCING HIS INTENT TO
NOMINATE COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY
ECONOMIST RICHARD
ECONOMIST RICHAR
ECONOMIST RISHAR
ECONOMIST RISH D
ECONOMIST RISH DRI
ECONOMIST RISH DRI.
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. LA
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. LAI.
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. LAI. R
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. LAI. RI.
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. LAI. RI
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. --I. RI
ECONOMIST RISH DRI. -- . RI
CLARIDA.
>> I KNOWND RICHARD MANY YEARS
EXCITED ABOUT WORKING WITH
RICHARD THE THINGS CHANGED
WITH JAY POWELL NOW AS
CHAIRMAN.
>> I THINK IT -- I AM SURE IS
WE WILL MAKE CHANGES BUT I
THINK THERE IS A LOT OF
CONTINUITY JAY HAS BEEN AROUND
THE TABLE FOR LAST SIX YEARS I
HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH HIM
SINCE ON THE FED I THINK WE
SHOULD REVISIT SOME OF THE
THINGS WE DO I THINK JAY
POWELL'S SELECTION IS A MARK
OF CONTINUITY THE OTHER
CHANGES AROUND THE TABLE I
THINK ARE HEALTH AND GOOD.
WE ARE A GROUP DECISION MAKING
BODY I THINK WHEN YOU HAVE
ROTATION AROUND THE GROUP A
HEALTHY THIS TIMING I
HEALTHY THIS TIMING --
HEALTHY THIS TIMING -- T
HEALTHY THIS TIMING -- THI
HEALTHY THIS TIMING -- THING
SHOULD BE GOOD.
>> TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS,
1.3 TRILLION-DOLLAR OMNIBUS
PLAN, PEOPLE ARE UP IN ARMS
ABOUT, BECAUSE WE KNOW WHERE
MUCH OF THE SPENDING GROWTH
IS, IT IS THE ENTITLEMENT
PROGRAMS.
AND, YOU KNOW, WE'RE NOT IN
DEBT BECAUSE OF DOMESTIC
SPENDING.
WE'RE IN DEBT BECAUSE OF
ENTITLEMENT PROGRAMS THIS WAS
A TOTALLY BUDGET BUSTER.
>> THE ENTITLEMENTS 49
TRILLION PRESIDENT -- UP
FUNDED A RECORD NUMBER EVEN
DEBT HELD BY PUBLIC OF THE
GOVERNMENT UP TO 76%, ALSO A
RECORD, SO WE'VE GOT TO
MODERATE THE PATH OF GROWTH
ENTITLEMENT REFORM ONE WAY TO
DO IT THE OTHER WAY IS GROW
FASTER, AND SO THIS IS WHY
REGULATORY REVIEW FINDING WAYS
TO GROW WORKFORCE IMMIGRATION
REFORM I THINK TRADE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO GROW FASTER ALL
THOSE THINGS ARE POLICY WE
HAVE TO GET RIGHT, BECAUSE
WE'VE GOT THE GROW FASTER TO
BE LIVING ROOMED WE ARE LATE
CYCLE RIGHT LEVERAGED, AT THIS
STAGE WE WANT TO MOOED RAUT
THAT GROWTH WE RAMPED IT UP IT
IS NOT SG LATE IN THE CYCLE.
>> TERMS OF POLICIES TAX PLAN
ROLLING BOOK REGULATIONS THE
TRADE STORY SEEMS THE MOST
WORRISOME DO YOU AGREE THAT
TPP IS NOT FOR US WE SHOULD DO
BILATERAL HOW DO YOU SQUARE
THE CIRCLE IN TERMS OF THESE
OF THE QUESTIONS AROUND TRADE?
IN MY JOB CENTRAL BANK CAREFUL
ABOUT POLICY POINTS MY POINT
HAS BEEN THIS.
TRADE ADDS JOBS IN UNITED
STATES.
STARTING WITH MEXICO, CANADA,
WE DO A LOT OF RESEARCH, ON
TRADE WITH BOTH IT IS
PRIMARILY I UNDERSTAND
GRAITSDZ 70% IS INTERMEDIARY
WE'VE GOT TO SHORE UP
AGREEMENTS THEN I THINK THE
NEGOTIATING WITH CHINA IS
GOING TO TAKE MUCH LONGER
TRADE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR THE
UNITED STATES, RIGHT NOW
PEOPLE ARE SEEING IT WILL AS A
THREAT 15 YEARS AGO DISRUPTED
JOBS TODAY IF JOBS ARE
DISRUPTED MOST LIKELY DUE TO
AUTOMATION TECHNOLOGY NOT
TRADE.
TRADE A BIG OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE U.S. WE NEED TO GET IT
RIGHT BECAUSE WE'VE GOT TO
GROW FASTER.
>> GOES BOOK TO EDUCATION YOUR