Welcome to the Climate and Water Outlook for April–June 2018.
La Niña has now ended and our climate drivers are neutral.
This means widespread extreme rainfall is less likely for the months ahead.
First, let's look at recent conditions.
Flooding rains in March affected parts of northern Australia.
Drought-affected areas in the northwest of Queensland have seen above-average rainfall
and have been transformed with a covering of green.
Water storage levels at the Ross River Dam near Townsville jumped from 15 to
90 per cent in only a few days.
And in New South Wales, the Hunter Valley received more than a month's rainfall in just
a few days, easing very dry conditions.
In the Northern Territory, tropical cyclone Marcus was the most intense cyclone
to affect Darwin since Tracy in 1974.
When it later moved off Western Australia, it became the strongest cyclone for the Australian
region in more than a decade.
In contrast, large areas of southeastern Australia have had little rain since late January.
Walpeup in the Mallee region of Victoria had virtually no rain from the end of January
to late March.
Combined with record-high temperatures since January in some areas, soils continued to
dry across the south.
In stark contrast, soil moisture is now above average in the northeast of the country, after
recent heavy rains.
Mid-March also saw the worst fires of the season in western Victoria and southern New South Wales.
Many homes were destroyed or damaged, and 15 000 ha burnt, but thankfully no lives were lost.
The warm and dry conditions also mean water storage levels in the Murray–Darling Basin
and southern Victoria are lower than at this time last year.
But levels in Tasmania and the southwest of Western Australia remain higher than at this time last year.
So what's driving our climate right now?
In the Pacific Ocean, waters along the equator have warmed, bringing an end to La Niña.
Patterns in the Indian Ocean are also neutral, and look likely to stay that way through autumn.
These neutral climate drivers mean no strong push towards wetter or drier conditions across
much of the country.
Only parts of southeastern Australia and Far North Queensland are likely to see higher
than average rainfall.
A neutral rainfall outlook does not mean you should expect average rainfall right across the country.
But conditions are unlikely to be extremely wet or extremely dry over large areas.
To learn more about what a neutral outlook can tell you, head over to our blog.
But it's worth noting that the long-term trend in southern parts of the country is for drier
autumn and early winter periods.
As a result, odds suggest an average or later than average autumn break this year.
Turning to streamflows: Low and near-median flows are most likely for March to May.
High flows are forecast in the Top End, due to high rainfall in recent months.
We're still monitoring the effects of the heavy March rainfall in Queensland, and how
this may influence streamflows.
In terms of temperatures: Days are likely to be cooler than average for parts of northern
Queensland and the Top End, but warmer than average in Tasmania.
So in summary: rainfall is likely to be variable, but wetter conditions are more likely in the
far southeast and in Far North Queensland; temperatures are likely to be mostly cooler
than average in parts of the north, and warmer than average in Tasmania;
low or near-median streamflows are likely at most locations, with high streamflows in the tropical north;
and the timing of the autumn break for cropping
in southern Australia may well be normal or slightly later than usual.
For more details, visit our website at bom.gov.au/climate/ahead.
You can also get updates via Facebook and Twitter.
Our first look at likely conditions for May–July will be available on Thursday 12 April.
For the Bureau of Meteorology, I’m Paul Feikema.