MINUTE.ORNI
>>> JOINING US NOW, FORMER FDA
COMMISSIONER DR. SCOTT GOTTLIEB.
DR. GOTTLIEB, A LOT OF QUESTIONS
FOR YOU THIS MORNING.
FIRST OF ALL, WHERE DO WE STAND
IN TERMS OF CORONAVIRUS?
STILL IN THE FIRST WAVE.
WHERE ARE WE HEADED?
THE PRESIDENT SAYS THAT HE HOPES
THAT IT WILL JUST GO AWAY.
>> WELL, LOOK, WE HAVE AN
ACCELERATING EPIDEMIC IN THE
SOUTH, FLORIDA, TEXAS, GEORGIA,
SOUTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA,
CALIFORNIA SHOWING ACCELERATION
NUMBER
SOUTH CAROLINA, ARIZONA, SHOWING
AN ACCELERATING NUMBER OF CASES.
THIS IS GOING TO CONTINUE.
IT’S GOING TO GET WORSE BEFORE
IT GETS BETTER.
AND THE STATES SO FAR HAVEN’T
TAKEN AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH ACTION
THAT YOU’RE GOING TO SEE A
DRAMATIC REVERSAL.
SO WHAT IT’S GOING THE TAKE IS A
COLLECTIVE ACTION OF INDIVIDUALS
BEING MORE VIGILANT, WEARING
MASKS WHEN THEY GO OUT, REDUCING
THEIR SOCIAL ACTIVITIES,
LIMITING THEIR SOCIAL CIRCLES
BECAUSE ABSENT A REALLY STRONG
POLICY INTERVENTION, WHICH I
DON’T THINK WE’RE GOING TO GET,
WE’RE DEPENDENT UPON THE
COLLECTION OF INDIVIDUALS TO
LOWER THEIR RISK AND THAT
ULTIMATELY CAN SLOW THE SPREAD.
BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME FOR THOSE
ACTIONS TO FLOW THROUGH.
>> DOCTORS, YOU SAY THE STATES
AREN’T BEING AGGRESSIVE ENOUGH.
WHAT SHOULD THEY BE DOING?
>> WELL, THEY’RE NOT GOING TO
SHUT DOWN.
IT’S GOING TO BE DIFFICULT FOR
THEM TO SHUT DOWN.
WEE NOW EXPERIENCING THIS
RESURGENCE ON THE BACKS OF A
MORE DIFFICULT ECONOMY.
THE FIRST TIME WE WENT INTO THIS
ECONOMY, WE WERE STRONG, WE WERE
ABLE TO SHUT DOWN ECONOMIC
ACTIVITY.
I THINK THEY SHOULD BE FOCUSSING
ON CONGREGANT SETTINGS INDOORS
THAT ARE ENTERTAINMENT VENUES
AND SHUT THOSE DOWN.
I DON’T THINK WE SHOULD BE
OPENING BARS AND THEATERS,
INDOOR RESTAURANTS IN A SETTING
LIKE THIS WHEN WE KNOW THERE’S
SETTINGS THAT CAN SPREAD
VICIOUSLY.
NURSING HOMES, SETTINGS LIKE
MEAT PACKING PLANTS, WAREHOUSES
WHERE PEOPLE CAN’T SOCIALLY
DISTANCE, WE NEED TO FOCUS
RESOURCES ON THAT.
FINALLY, WE SHOULD BE TRYING TO
DRAW IN THE COLLECTIVE ACTION OF
INDIVIDUALS.
UNIVERSAL MASKING, IT’S THE
SIMPLEST THING WE CAN DO.
THAT IS THE LEAST INTRUSIVE
THING WE CAN DO IN PEOPLE’S
LIVES AND TRYING TO ENCOURAGE
PEOPLE TO LIMIT SOCIAL
INTERACTIONS AND JUST PRACTICE
GOOD BEHAVIORS.
IF THEY DO THAT ON A WIDE SCALE,
THAT CAN AFFECT THE CONTOURS OF
THIS EPIDEMIC BUT IT NEEDS TO BE
FOLLOWED CONSISTENTLY AND IT
ISN’T REALLY RIGHT NOW.
>> SOME PEDIATRIC EXPERTS ARE
PUSHING FOR SCHOOLS TO OPEN AND
FOR KIDS TO GO TO SCHOOL.
IS THERE AN ARGUMENT TO BE MADE?
AND I’M NOT SURE, SHOULD THEY BE
WEARING MASKS THAT KIDS RETURN
TO SCHOOL BECAUSE THAT’S BETTER
FOR THEIR HEALTH?
AND THE WAY THEY CONTRACT THE
VIRUS IS DIFFERENT FROM THE WAY
PERHAPS OLDER PEOPLE DO?
AND IS THERE AN ECONOMIC MODEL
FOR OPENING SCHOOLS FIRST AND
THEN BUSINESSES?
>> LOOK, I THINK WE SHOULD BE
TRYING TO OPEN THE SCHOOLS.
I THINK WE SHOULD HAVE THOUGHT
ABOUT THIS TWO MONTHS AGO WHEN
WE REOPENED CERTAIN BUSINESSES.
OUR FOCUS SHOULD HAVE BEEN ON
TRYING TO GET THE SCHOOLS OPEN
AND DO WHAT WE CAN TO REOPEN THE
SCHOOLS.
IF WE HAD THAT FOCUS, WE MIGHT
HAVE MADE DIFFERENT DECISIONS
ABOUT OPENING BARS EARLY.
KIDS ARE LESS SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE
VIRUS BASED ON THE DATA WE HAVE
AND THEY DON’T EXPERIENCE AS
SEVERE SYMPTOMS.
SO THEY’RE LESS LIKELY TO GET
INTO TROUBLE WITH THE VIRUS.
BUT THAT DOESN’T MEAN THEY’RE
IMPERVIOUS TO THE VIRUS AND WE
KNOW THEY CAN TRANSMIT IT.
AND WE’VE SEEN OUTBREAKS IN
SCHOOLS.
SO I THINK THE BOTTOM LINE IS,
WHERE YOU HAVE THESE SETTINGS, I
THINK LOCAL SCHOOLBOARDS ARE
GOING ON BE HARD PRESSED TO OPEN
THE SCHOOLS.
EVEN IF WE WANT TO DO IT, I
THINK PARENTS ON THE
SCHOOLBOARDS AND LOCAL OFFICIALS
ARE GOING TO HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME OHMING SCHOOLS AGAINST THAT
BACK DROP BECAUSE WE KNOW THE
SCHOOLS CAN BE SETTINGS OF
OUTBREAKS.
PEOPLE DON’T WANT TO SEE
OUTBREAKS IN SCHOOL SETTINGS AND
WE KNOW THE KIDS CAN BE A
CONDUIT OF SPREAD EVEN IF
THEY’RE LESS LIKELY TO SPREAD
THE VIRUS.
THEY’RE NOT IMPERVIOUS TO IT.
SO THE VIEW THAT THE KIDS CAN’T
GET IT AND CAN’T SPREAD IT, THAT
IS FAR LESS TRUE.
THEY SEEM LESS LIKELY TO GET THE
VIRUS AND THEY SEEM LESS LIKELY
TO SPREAD IT, BUT THEY CAN BE
SUSCEPTIBLE. >> DOCTOR, YOU SAID THE NUMBERS
>> DOCTOR, YOU SAID THE NUMBERS
ARE UP, HE, POE EXPONENTIAL
NUMBERS IN SOME STATES.
YET WE’RE HEARING IN THE MEDIA
THAT THE NUMBER OF DEATHS ARE
DOWN.
IS THIS BECAUSE THERE ARE
YOUNGER AMERICANS GETTING THIS
DISEASE OR BECAUSE THERE’S A LAG
TIME AND WE’RE NOT GOING TO GO
THE IMPACT OF THESE INFECTIONS
FOR TWO, THREE OR FOUR WEEKS?
>> IT’S BOTH OF THOSE THINGS.
RIGHT NOW, THE VIRUS IS
CONCENTRATED IN A YOUNGER
POPULATION THAT IS LESS
SUSCEPTIBLE.
BUT THERE IS A LAG TIME.
SO YOU LOOK AT WHAT HAPPENED FOR
EXAMPLE IN IRAN WHERE THEY HAD
AN EPIDEMIC, A VERY BAD, THEY
BROUGHT THE NUMBERS DOWN AND
BROUGHT IT BACK UP.
AND THEN A FULL THREE OR FOUR
WEEKS LATER, THEY SAW THE DEATH
STATISTICS START TO GO UP.
WE ARE PRESERVING MORE LIFE AND
WE SHOULDN’T LOSE SIGHT OF THAT.
THE CASE MORTALITY RATE ARE
GOING TO GO DOWN BECAUSE THERE’S
BETTER APPROACHES TO CARE AND
SOME BETTER DRUGS AND TREATMENT.
SO THE DEATH RATE IS PROG
PROBABLY GOING TO GO DOWN, BUT
THE NUMBER OF DEATHS IS GOING TO
GO UP TRAGICALLY.
AS WE HAVE MORE
HOSPITALIZATIONS, DEATH IS A
LAGGING INDICATOR.
TIME TO DEATH FOR SOMEONE WHO
DOES SUCCUMB TO THIS FROM THE
INITIAL POINT OF HOSPITALIZATION
IS ABOUT 14 DAYS.
SO AS THESE HOSPITALIZATION
NUMBERS GO UP, WE ARE GOING TO
SEE MORE PEOPLE SUCCUMB TO THE
VIRUS AND I THINK THE NUMBER OF
DEATHS PER DAY IS PROBABLY GOING
TO CREEP BACK UP ABOVE 1,000.
SO WE SHOULD SEPARATE THE NUMBER
OF DEATHS FROM THE DEATH RATE.
THE CASE MORTALITY RATE IS
PROBABLY COMING DOWN.
WE ARE PRESERVING MORE LIFE ON A
PROPORTIONAL BASIS WHEN YOU LOOK
ACROSS, FOR EXAMPLE, AGE COHORTS
OR PEOPLE WHO ARE SIMILARLY
MATCHED IN TERMS OF THEIR
HEALTH.
BUT THE TOTAL NUMBER OF DEATHS
IS GOING TO GO UP, NONETHELESS,
BECAUSE SO MANY PEOPLE ARE
INFECTED RIGHT NOW AND
EVENTUALLY IT WILL SEEP OUT OF A
YOUNGER POPULATION INTO AN OLDER
COHORT.
>> DR. GOTTLIEB, WE HEARD
YESTERDAY FROM THE WHITE HOUSE
AS THE COUNTRY SET A NEW RECORD
MORE THAN 50,000 REPORTED DAILY
CASES THAT THE REASON YOU’RE
SEEING THESE BIG NUMBERS ACROSS
SO MANY STATES IS BECAUSE THE
COUNTRY IS DOING A BETTER JOB OF
TESTING.
AND WE’VE HEARD THE PRESIDENT’S
LOGIC THAT IF YOU STOP TESTING,
WE WOULDN’T HAVE AS MANY CASES.
IS THERE ANY TRUTH AGAIN,
BECAUSE WE HEAR IT CONSTANTLY
FROM THE WHITE HOUSE, THAT WHAT
YOU’RE ACTUALLY SEEING IS A
BETTER JOB BEING DONE ON TESTING
AND NOT NECESSARILY MORE CASES
IN THE COUNTRY?
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THAT
ARGUMENT?
>> WELL, WE ARE DIAGNOSING MORE
CASES.
AT THE HEIGHT OF THE EPIDEMIC IN
NEW YORK, WE WERE PROBABLY
DIAGNOSING ONE IN 20 CASES.
NOW IT’S PROBABLY 1 IN 10.
BUT WE’RE STILL UNDER TESTING
BECAUSE THE POSITIVITY RATE IS
GOING UP.
SO THE FACT THAT THE PERCENT OF
THE TESTS THAT ARE POSITIVE IS
GOING UP IS AN INDICATION THIS
ISN’T JUST A PHENOMENON OF MORE
TESTING.
THIS IS A PHENOMENON OF MORE
VIRUS.
SO WE MIGHT BE CAPTURING A
HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF THE CASES,
BUT WE HAVE MORE CASES.
SO WE’RE PROBABLY DIAGNOSING ONE
IN TEN CASES RIGHT NOW SO THE
50,000 INFECTIONS THAT WE’RE
DIAGNOSING ARE PROBABLY MORE
LIKE 1 HURN,000 CASES A DAY ARE
OCCURRING AROUND THE COUNTRY.
20% OF THOSE ARE ASYMPTOMATIC.
SO THERE ARE MAYBE 20,000 TO
30,000 PEOPLE WHO HAVE SYMPTOMS
WHO ARE NEW CASES ON DAILY BASIS
AND WE’RE DIAGNOSING ABOUT
50,000 OF THEM.
>> DR. SCOTT GOTTLIEB, THANK YOU
VERY MUCH FOR JOINING US THIS
MORNING.
>>> STILL AHEAD, WE’RE AWAITING
SOME IMPORTANT FIGURES THAT WILL
OFFER INSIGHT INTO HOW THE U.S.
ECONOMY IS DOING AMID THE
CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC.
JUNE EMPLOYMENT DATA AND THE
WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS REPORT
WILL BOTH BE RELEASED THIS