Judy: Polls will begin to close
tomorrow at 6:00 P.M. In the
eastern U.S,. But final results
could take days to determine in
some races.
Here to discuss the indicators
of what they will be on the
look out for, our Amy Walter of
the cook political report with
Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of
NPR.
Hello to both of you.
You can feel it, it is in the
air.
Almost here, what we have been
talking about for a long time.
Speaking of the cook political
report, Amy, your house forecast
for the house of representatives
suggest Republicans are favored
in 212 races.
You need 218 to take control.
Explain what you are seeing.
Amy: We are seeing now is a
challenge for Democrats, the
fact that they have the
narrowest of majorities.
They currently have a five seat
majority.
It is not quick to take much of
a wave, a ripple among this
electorate to give Republicans
the majority.
They see a big wave that is
about to crash to ship -- crash
to shore.
We are seeing maybe wavey, but
maybe not a tsunami.
Where Republicans pick up 15,
maybe 30 seats, depending on a
number of key factors.
One, who comes out, that is
always important.
But critically, who comes out on
election day.
Democrats feel good about their
early voting in these key
states.
We know especially in these last
couple of years where
Republicans turnout is on
election day, and they often
surprise Democrats who assumed
they built a big enough lead.
To second thing we are looking
at -- the second thing we are
looking at is where independent
voters decide to go.
We talked about the ap on
election night.
I will be looking closely at
where those independent voters
decide to go on election day
when there is a big wave
election, they tend to break by
double digits for the party that
is not in the white house.
If it is a smaller margin, we
may see fewer seats.
Right now, the expectation that
we have is it is going to be
anywhere from a 10 to 15, maybe
20 seat majority for Republicans
in the next congress.
Judy: All they need is five.
The numbers you are seeing,
clearly giving them that number.
How much difference does it make
for Republicans, whether they
have a little bit of an
advantage or a bigger one?
Tamara: When it comes to
governance, the bigger the
majority, the better in terms of
being able to get their agenda
through.
One of the challenges that a
potential, likely speaker, Kevin
Mccarthy, woods -- would face is
governing.
There are must pass bills that
will be challenging to pass
because there are Republicans
who have never voted for a
budget.
And they have had to have, in
the past, when Republicans have
been in power and Democrats have
been in the white house, they
have relied on Democrats to get
them across the line.
Will a Republican majority of
this variety be willing to pass
a budget bill?
Or will they want to extract
huge concessions from the
president and his party?
It could be very challenging
because there truly are a lot of
Republicans who are in the
always know caucus.
Amy: And there are the people in
the vote no, pray as category,
as one Republican called it.
They have to do it for optics
reasons.
Even a bigger majority for
Republicans does have problems
for Kevin Mccarthy.
Many of those Republicans would
be holding democratic seats.
Some of the -- if we are talking
about a wave, that means
Republicans are picking up seats
in Connecticut and Rhode Island
and California and Oregon.
Seats that item won by double
digits -- that Biden won by
double digits.
If those candidates are labeled
as -- and Republicans are
labeled as the party that went
too far to the extreme, or the
party that did not vote for a
budget or default on the debt
ceiling.
Judy: We are bait -- or who are
big fans of former president
Donald Trump.
Tamara: You know they will be
able to accomplish
investigations.
They have lots of plans to
investigate lots of things to
embark on impeachments of
various Biden administration
officials.
That part would be relatively
easy.
They could probably get good
consensus on that.
Judy: Then there is the senate.
Remember that other body of
congress.
I'm looking at the cook
political report for -- four
states in tossup.
Talk about why they are there.
Amy: When we say tossup, we mean
these are races we really feel
could go either way.
These are coin toss type races
where the narrowest of margins
separate Democrats from
Republicans.
What we do know historically
when we look at ratings we have
made over the years, they tend
to break disproportionately in
one direction.
You look at four seats,
Democrats win two, Republicans
win two, we are basically back
where we started.
Usually, they break three or
four of them will break one way.
Traditionally.
As we have been discussing,
especially Arizona, Georgia,
Nevada, those are states where
we expect to not have an answer
on election night.
Georgia going to a run-up on
both sides.
.
Seem to agree that race will go
into extra time.
Pennsylvania, Republicans
feeling a lot better about their
candidate there.
Feels like he has kind of got
the late momentum in that
election.
Judy: Colored it red.
>> It is a Republican leaning
state.
That is the state on election
night, if they call it for
Republicans, there is a good
chance that Republicans will
have enough to win the majority.
I would posit that.
If Democrats hold it, it does
not mean they are holding the
majority, but it does mean that
they could keep a 50-50 senate.
Judy: The same kind of question
I asked about the house.
How much difference does it make
for Republicans, whether they
stay at 50-50 or they have that
one or more seat advantage?
Tamara: It would be helpful for
them to have the majority.
And again, a think in terms of
governing -- I think in terms of
governing, if this goes the way
it looks like it is going, it is
going to be two years of divided
government, where the president
has a veto, nobody has enough of
a majority to override a veto.
And there is just a lot of
gridlock, which is not what
anyone wants, and yet the
American people, on a very
regular basis, give America
divided government.
Judy: And say that is what they
want.
When you ask people in a number
of these polls, they say they
feel better.
Tamara: For this idea that they
want to check on the party in
power.
One thing we do know about 2023,
is that we will be talking a lot
about 2024.
And the likelihood that Donald
Trump will once again be a big
part of the conversation, but
Democrats are also talking a lot
about what is Joe Biden going to
do?
Will he announce immediately he
is running for reelection?
What kind of signals is he going
to be giving?
Judy: We are hearing signals
from the white house that he has
every intention, but they are --
they can't say it because there
are legal things that happen.
You are right, 2023 is when to
be about 2024.
Tamara: Indeed.
2022 in a lot of ways is already
about 2020 for.
-- 2024.
Just when we think we are done,
we go right into the next.
Judy: Any last minute words of
-- I should say from the wise
about what you are watching for
tomorrow?
Amy: I'm watching New Hampshire.
That is a state that it should
stay, given all that we have
seen, Republicans would -- that
would be a big upset if they win
and that senate race.
I think we are looking at a big
night for Republicans.
Tamara: I agree.
I am watching New Hampshire, and
some house races in Virginia
that should come in early and
give us a good sense.
Judy: We always watch the two of
you, and I should say tomorrow
night, Tamera, you are going to
be working hard with NPR.
Amy, you will be here at this
desk, as we watch the results
come in.
Thank you both.
A reminder to you, we will have
the latest election news
tomorrow right here on the
newshour and all night on pbs
with our special election
coverage.
♪♪