John: Good evening.
I'm John yang.
In Turkey, they are counting the
votes from today's election to
see if president recep tayyip
erdogan will extend his two
decade hold on power.
The state run news agency
indicates erdogan may be headed
for a runoff in two weeks.
The election, with a unified
opposition, represents the
greatest political challenge yet
to erdogan's increasingly
authoritarian rule.
Challenger kemal kilicdaroglu
narrowly led erdogan in
pre-election surveys.
He's a retired civil servant and
ran on a promise of restoring
democracy, which erdogan has
eroded.
Some Turkish voters went to the
polls in the mood for change.
Murat: For me this feels like a
parting of ways.
I don't know how to describe it.
I can't think of a more
important election.
John: While we await the final
vote count, we turn to soner
cagaptay, who's head of the
Turkish research program at the
Washington institute for near
east policy.
His most recent book is a sultan
in autumn: Erdogan faces
Turkey's uncontainable forces.
To use your terms, what are the
uncontainable forces driving
erdogan to a runoff tonight?
Soner: I would say the economy.
He has won elections until
recently on a platform of
economic growth and he has never
one elections well not
delivering -- while not
delivering both.
The economy was a big factor
going into the elections and the
earthquake hurt his popularity.
His strength is his information
control, or control of
information flow.
He has eliminated the autonomy
of many of Turkeys institutions
from courts to foreign ministry,
to the central bank with grave
ramifications for policy but
also electoral boards and media.
90% of the media is aligned with
him and 80% of citizens cannot
read linkages other than
Turkish.
You can curate reality.
In the run-up to elections,
citizens to not hear about
inflation, journalists in jail,
or relief agencies providing
eight after the earthquake, but
how erdogan has made Turkey a
great military industrial power.
He repeated this over and over
in the media, given a large
majority of citizens read what
he curated.
Erdogan the inventor of nativist
politics of this century
globally.
You spread lies, you repeat them
so much they become reality and
you win elections based on that,
and people forgot they were
lies.
John: The selection is closely
watched in western capitals,
here in Washington and at the
Kremlin.
What is at stake?
Soner: A lot is at stake.
Turkey plays a role in the role
-- a role in the war in Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin decided he wanted
erdogan to win.
There was hyperinflation under
erdogan, and large amounts of
cash transferred from Russia to
Turkey and erdogan handed these
out in the form of social
security benefits as well as
cheap gas from Russia he gave
for free to voters and I think
perhaps that put them close to
the finish line.
Clinton wants her to want to win
because he is a like-minded
meter -- like-minded leader that
challenges the international
order.
We have a runoff likely in two
weeks and Putin will continue to
support erdogan financially and
through information operations
because he cannot afford to see
erdogan lose when he is not
winning in Ukraine.
John: Tell us about the opponent
in the race.
How much of his strength is
support for him, how much is
opposition to erdogan?
Soner: He is a soft-spoken
politician, opposite of erdogan.
Erdogan demonizes and utilizes
and tracks down on demographics
that don't vote for him.
This opponent reach across the
aisle, tried to breach the
traditional split.
Perhaps it worked, he was able
to unite opposition forces but I
think he could not really get to
the 50% margin.
In this regard, I think erdogan
played a masterful gain.
The party was supported by a
pro-curtis faction, and he --
pro kurdish faction and he
branded them as terrorists.
I think some voters were
convinced that support for this
candidate meant support for that
faction.
John: If it goes to a runoff and
erdogan wins, do you think his
assault on democracy will
continue?
Soner: I have argued that
countries could be vegetables
and Turkey is an onion.
There is no core, you peel it
and there is no core.
Turkey is not an autocracy, not
a democracy, it is a democracy
that has fallen under an
autocrat.
It is trying to make a comeback.
If erdogan wins again, I think
Turkey will become a complete
talker C.
The remaining institutions -- a
complete talker C.
The remaining institutions will
fall under him.
The rule of law will disappear.
Erdogan will be anointed as the
country's new sultan.
Turks will flee the country,
giving up hope he will be voted
out.
I think Turkey will dissent into
deeper autocracy.
John: Thank you very much.
Soner: My pleasure.