Today, Senator Joe Manchin
is set to attend a town
hall in New Hampshire hosted by the group
No Labels, fueling
speculation of a potential third
party run.
No Labels is actively considering
running a third party
candidate in the 2024 presidential race
and pushing for a unity ticket
featuring one Democrat or one Republican.
Now, Manchin
told Manu last week as he does
just about every week
about whatever the topic is and motto,
the event is
not about running for president,
but wouldn't rule it out either.
For more on this, let's bring in CNN
senior data reporter
Harry Enten with this morning's number.
Harry. The number.
Yeah.
So, you know,
if you want to talk about
how much why there's
all this
talk about a third party
potentially getting traction
versus four years ago.
Take a look at this morning's number.
All right. It's 21%.
Why this?
21% because voters who dislike both Biden
and Trump, it's 21% of the electorate.
Compare that to 3%
who felt that way on Election Day. 2020.
This 21% is more than
the percentage of voters
who dislike both Trump and Clinton.
On the heels of the 2016 election.
So this is a large chunk of voters
and that is fueling all this talk
about a third party bid
so Harry who would win the voters
who not like neither Biden nor Trump
if they faced each other
in a general election matchup.
Yeah so take a look
this sort of gives
you an understanding
how those voters who don't like Biden
or Trump say they'll vote in 2024.
Look it's close
but those voters are favoring
Joe Biden by a 41% to 34% margin.
And I think that is part of the reason
why you're seeing all these Democrats
perhaps be worried because they know
this is a chunk of voters
that Joe Biden needs to win.
And if they like Biden more than Trump
and all of a sudden
you introduce a third party candidate
maybe things might end up
a little bit differently.
You know to that point
what if Joe Manchin or Cornel West
ends up on the ballot as
a third party candidate come November?
Yeah.
So here's the big reveal
right at the end of the segment.
All right.
Biden versus Trump in 20, 24.
If there's no third party.
Look at this.
Biden by a point,
the effect of a third party
potential third party candidate is small,
but it is enough to flip it.
And now if a third party candidate
is included,
look at that Trump by one point.
So Democrats are the ones
who don't want a third party candidate
And this is the polling.
This is the data that they're
looking at, guys.
Murray, can you.
That was a great big reveal, Harry.
Thank you.
You backed it up with actual details.
Explain Manchin to people.
Not broadly that that would take a while.
But on this issue specifically,
you have a better read and talk to him
more than maybe anybody I know.
What's the genesis here of this
and why does he keep flirting with this?
It's not clear.
He is actually all that interested
in running for president.
He likes his name being out there.
He likes being discussed.
He wants
to be in the center of this discussion.
And he legitimately has concerns
the way the two parties are
running things
and Washington
and the fact
there is really not much effort
to try to come to the middle.
So that's been his whole
political mantra.
And if it
if flirting with a presidential bid
allows folks to pay attention to that
that's great.
But the second he rules that out
or the second he says,
I am not going to run for reelection
in a very critical state
of West Virginia,
if he doesn't run for reelection
in the Senate,
that seats
almost certainly going to flip
to the Republicans.
People will stop paying attention
to people, stop cutting deals
with trying to cut deals with them
and try to achieve his
own political objectives.
So there is a real reason
for Manchin to be doing this
to get the attention he wants now.
Will he eventually run for president?
I tend to doubt it.
But, you know, he hasn't ruled it out.
So you have to at least consider that
that remains a possibility
and one that Democrats,
frankly, are very concerned about.
If he does run for reelection,
it doesn't hurt him to be seen
as sticking it to the current president,
who is a Democrat,
doesn't poll that well over there
in West Virginia.
Absolutely.
So, Harry, Manu,
thank you both very much. Guys.