>>> WE’VE BEEN THE BIG BOARD,
WE’VE DONE THE VOTES, WE’VE DONE
EXPERTS AND TURN TO THE LEGAL
BREAKDOWN.
DONALD TRUMP SEEKING RECOUNTS.
LET’S GO THROUGH THE FACTS AND
LAW.
WE’RE SEEING NEW SUITS OR MOVES
BY DONALD TRUMP IN WISCONSIN,
MICHIGAN, PENNSYLVANIA WHERE A
COURT HAS PROJECTED ONE NEW
TRUMP CHALLENGE.
WE KNOW FROM PAST CASES, THESE
MOVES RARELY FLIP WHO WINS THE
STATE UNLESS THE MARGINS ARE
WELL UNDER 1,000 VOTES.
SO, JUST DOING THE MAT I WANT
YOU TO KEEP THAT NUMBER IN MIND.
1,000 AS YOU LOOK AT SOME
EMERGING MARGINS.
MICHIGAN WITH 7% IN IS TOO
EARLY -- EXCUSE ME, IS WHAT YOU
SEE HERE.
16 ELECTORAL VOTES.
97% IN.
TRUMP HAS FILED A LAWSUIT TO
STOP THE VOTE COUNTING OR TAKE
WISCONSIN FINDING THE APPARENT
WINNER 99% OF THE VOTES IN.
THE MARGIN, 20,000 VOTES.
LET ME BE VERY CLEAR, ON THE ONE
HAND SHLS
HAND, THOSE ARE NOT A HUGE
LANDSLIDE.
THEY LOOK LIKE TIGHT MARGINS BUT
PRECEDENT SHOWS THEY ARE NOT
TIGHT ENOUGH TO BE REVERSED IN A
RECOUNT.
NOW WITH ALL THE RECOUNT TALK IN
WISCONSIN, LET LOOK AT A RECENT
EXAMPLE FROM THAT SAME STATE.
2016.
THERE WAS A RECOUNT IT SHOWED
TRUMP DEFEATING CLINTON.
AND THAT RECOUNT ONLY SHIFTED
131 VOTES.
THAT’S WHY WISCONSIN REPUBLICANS
ARE SKEPTICAL TONIGHT OF WHAT
DONALD TRUMP WANTS TO DO.
ANOTHER SIMILAR SITUATION IN THE
SAME STATE WISCONSIN SUPREME
COURT RACE 2011.
THE CHALLENGER DECLARED A
RECOUNT AFTER LOSING BY 7,000
VOTES.
HOW MANY CHANGED?
312.
NOW CASES WHERE THE RECOUNT DID
CHANGE THE OUTCOME, IT CAN
HAPPEN.
IF YOU REMEMBER AL FRANKEN’S
2008 RACE.
HE WAS INITIALLY TRAILING BY
JUST 215 VOTES ON ELECTION
NIGHT.
THAT DID MOVE AS THE RECOUNT
PROCEEDED.
FRANKEN ENDED UP BINNINGY 300
VOTES.
REMEMBER WHAT I SAID AT THE TOP.
UNDER 1,000 MAYBE.
OVER 1,000, BASICALLY NEVER.
THESE ARE EXAMPLES THAT JUST
HINGE ON A FEW HUNDRED VOTES.
THE TRUMP CAMPAIGN IS BRINGING
LEGAL CHALLENGES IN STATES WHERE
THE MARGIN IS WELL OVER 10,000
VOTES.
THAT MEANS FOR A RECOUNT TO MAKE
A DIFFERENCE AND NOT JUST TAKE
TIME, IT WOULD HAVE TO BE A
PRECEDENT SETTING EVENT CHANGING
THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS AND
THOUSANDS OF VOTES IN A WAY WE
HAVE AT LEAST AS FAR AS HISTORY
IS CONCERNED, NEVER SEEN BEFORE.
THIS IS IMPORTANT MATH FOR THE
FIGHTS COMING UP AND WE WANT TO
BRING IN OUR MATH POLITICAL
EXPERTS.
RACHEL IS THE EDITOR OF "THE
CYCLE OF POLITICAL" WEBSITE.
SHE’S BEEN CRUNCHING NUMBERS ALL
YEAR, AND SHEA COLEMAN HAS
WORKED FOR THE OBAMA AND CLINTON
CAMPAIGNED AND ADVISED
DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATES ON EXACTLY
THESE KIND OF QUESTIONS OF STATE
MARGINS.
GOOD TO SEE YOU BOTH.
>> THANKS FOR HAVING THANK YOU.
THANKS, ARI.
>> IF YOU DON’T FOLLOW THIS IN
AND OUT LIKE THE TWO OF YOU, ONE
COULD SEE HOW WITH MILLIONS OF
VOTES CAST, 10,000, 5,000 SOUNDS
CLOSE.
WHAT DO YOU SEE AS RELEVANT IN
WISCONSIN IF PAST RECOUNTS ONLY
MOVED A COUPLE HUNDRED VOTES AND
TRUMP TRAILS BY 20,000?
>> WELL, I SEE TWO SPECIFIC
THINGS.
ONE IS THE NATURE OF THE MARGIN
THAT JOE BIDEN -- THAT VICE
PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN HAS.
WHICH IS FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT AND
UNLIKELY TO BE OVERTURNED IN A
RECOUNT.
NOW, HISTORICALLY ONLY 11% OF
ALL RECOUNTS HAVE ACTUALLY
FLIPPED WHOEVER THE WINNER WAS.
VIRTUALLY ALL OF THEM WERE
WITHIN 0.1% OF THE RESULT.
THE BEST EXAMPLE BEING THE 2004
WASHINGTON GOVERNOR’S RACE WHERE
THAT DID ACTUALLY FLIP.
IT WAS WITHIN 0.1%.
JOE BIDEN IS WELL OUT OF THAT
RANGE.
THE SECOND THING I WILL SAY IS A
PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTOR THAT IS IN
JOE BIDEN’S FAVOR, WHICH IS THE
FACT IS HE IS GOING INTO THESE
COURT CHALLENGES WITH A POSITIVE
VOTE TALLY.
HE IS AHEAD ON VOTES.
IF YOU REMEMBER THE 2000
RECOUNT, AL GORE NEVER WAS
ACTUALLY AHEAD OF GEORGE W. BUSH
IN THOSE COURT CHALLENGES.
IT’S PSYCHOLOGICAL BECAUSE
JUDGES ARE VERY UNLIKELY TO WANT
TO BE THE ONES TO OVERTURN AN