JERUSALEM, THANKS, TREY.
ERIC.
ERIC: SO HOW ALARMING IS THIS?
LET’S BRING IN DAN HOFFMAN,
FORMER STATION CHIEF, ALSO
SERVED IN MOSCOW, IRAQ AND
PAKISTAN AND IS A FOX NEWS
CONTRIBUTOR.
WE HAVE TWO PEOPLE KILLED IN
THIS, DAN, AS YOU KNOW, ONE AS
TREY JUST SAID A BRITISH
SUBJECT, A BRITISH CITIZEN AND
NOW THE ISRAELI FOREIGN MINISTER
JOINED THE U.K. FOREIGN MINISTER
IN BLAMING TEHRAN.
WHAT DO WE DO?
>> WELL, I THINK FIRST OF ALL WE
HAVE TO RECOGNIZE THAT THERE’S A
REAL ESCALATION GOING ON IN THE
GULF BETWEEN IRAN AND ISRAEL.
ISRAEL REPORTEDLY DID TAKE A
LETHAL STRIKE AGAINST AN IRANIAN
-- THE COMMANDER OF AN IRANIAN
PROXY MILITIA IN SYRIA AND
REMEMBER, ISRAEL LAUNCHED
SIGNIFICANT ATTACKS AGAINST
IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM AS WELL,
WHILE IRAN HAS BEEN VERY ACTIVE
IN LAUNCHING ATTACKS AGAINST
SHIPPING IN THE GULF.
IRAN’S WIDESPREAD USE OF DRONES,
THE HOUTHIS IN YEMEN AS WELL AS
BY HAMAS AGAINST ISRAEL AND SO
FOR THE UNITED STATES THERE’S
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN ABOUT
FREEDOM OF NAVIGATION BUT IN A
GREATER ISSUE FOR US IS THE
NUCLEAR DEAL AND THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION IS VERY
INTERESTED IN GETTING BACK INTO
THEY THAT VERY FLAWED DEAL AND
I’M SURE THAT PRESIDENT BIDEN IS
ASKING THE INTELLIGENCE
COMMUNITY WHETHER THE DOMESTIC
CRISIS IN IRAN MIGHT INDUCE THE
IRANIANS TO GET BACK INTO THE
DEAL TO RECEIVE SOME SANCTIONS
RELIEF AND RELIEVE SOME PRESSURE
THAT THEY’RE FACING FROM THEIR
OWN POPULATION.
ERIC: YOU JUST MENTIONED THE
DOMESTIC CRISIS, THERE’S BEEN
WIDESPREAD PROTESTS ON THE
STREETS OF IRAN THROUGHOUT THE
COUNTRY AGAINST THE REGIME.
HOW SIGNIFICANT IS THAT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE WAY THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION CALCULATES ITS
EFFORTS TO TRY TO GET BACK INTO
THE DEAL?
>> I THINK THAT’S REALLY
SIGNIFICANT AND IT GOES BACK
BACK -- YOU KNOW, BACK IN
NOVEMBER OF 2019, KNOWN IN IRAN
AS BLOODY NOVEMBER BECAUSE
PEOPLE TOOK TO THE STREETS TO
PROTEST AGAINST THE INEPT
GOVERNMENT AND WE HAD RECORD LOW
TURNOUT FOR THE IRANIAN
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, UNDER 50
OF% TURNOUT AND PEOPLE HITTING
THE STREETS, PROTESTING LACK OF
BASIC SERVICES LIKE WATER ALL
OVER THE COUNTRY, INCLUDING IN
TEHRAN, ALSO EXACERBATES
THE ISSUE OF SEPARATEISM IN IRAN
WHICH HAS BEEN A BIG DEAL IN
WESTERN PARTS OF IRAN AND THERE
ARE THOSE SIGNIFICANT NUMBERS OF
THE POPULATION PROTESTING LACK
OF WATER WITH PLACARDS OF I AM
THIRSTY.
AND SO IRAN IS UNDER
UNPRECEDENTED STRAIN, ECONOMIC
TRAIN FROM HORRIFIC GOVERNMENT
MISMANAGEMENT AND UTTERY INEPT
GOVERNMENT ABILITY TO DELIVER
BASIC SERVICES FROM THE
SANCTIONS THAT THE TRUMP
ADMINISTRATION IMPOSED AND THEN
AS WELL FROM THE SEPARATEISM.
THAT CERTAINLY WEAKEN’S IRAN’S
HAND.
THE CHALLENGE FOR THE UNITED
STATES IS THE JCPOA WAS
HORRIFICALLY FLAWED AS WE STATED
MANY TIMES ON THE A PROGRAM
BECAUSE OF THE SUNSET CLAUSES.
IF WE RELIEVE THE PRESSURE BY
ELIMINATING THE SANCTIONS, THEN
WE ELIMINATE OUR LEVERAGE TO
STRIKE A BETTER DEAL.
I THINK THAT’S THE CHALLENGE FOR
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION.
ERIC: AND FINALLY, DAN, AS YOU
POINT OUT, TREMENDOUS PRESSURE
ON THE GOVERNMENT DOMESTICALLY
AND NOW THE NEW HARD LINE
PRESIDENT TAKES OVER THIS COMING
WEEK.
AT THE SAME TIME DEALING IN
FOREIGN AFFAIRS, IRAN APPARENTLY
STRIKING OUT.
WHAT IF THE SHADOW WAR IN THE
PERSIAN GULF ESCALATES?
WHAT DO YOU FEAR COULD HAPPEN?
AND DO YOU THINK IT WILL GET OUT
OF HAND?
>> WELL, I THINK ISRAEL IS
CERTAINLY TRYING TO DELIVER A
VERY CLEAR STATEMENT ABOUT A RED
LINE, THAT IRAN SHOULD NOT BE
TARGETING GULF SHIPPING AND THAT
MERCER STREET SHIP IS RUN BY THE
ZODIAC GROUP WHICH IS AN ISRAELI
ISRAELI-RUN GROUP AND SO THE
ISRAELIS ARE MAKING IT CLEAR
THAT THEY WILL COUNTER IRANIAN
STRIKES AND THAT’S MEANT TO
DETER FUTURE IRANIAN ACTION BUT
THERE IS THE CONCERN THAT WHEN
IRANIAN HARD-LINER IBRAHIM
RAISSI TAKES OFFICE AUGUST 5th
THAT IRAN MAY RATCHET UP THE
PRESSURE.
THE QUESTION IS WHETHER IRAN
BOWS TO SOME OF THE PRESSURE AND
RETRACTS OR WHETHER THEY GO INTO
FULL ROGUE STATUS AND PROCEED
WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A NUCLEAR
WEAPON AND UP THE KINETIC
ATTACKS ON ISRAEL AND OUR ALLIES
IN THE GULF.
I THINK THAT’S A KEY REQUIREMENT
FOR THE INTELLIGENCE COMMUNITY
IN THE UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW.
THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION CAN BE
INFORMED AND MAKE BETTER POLICY.
ERIC: AS WELL AS TARGETING
OPPONENTS AND ACTIVEISTS BOTH
INSIDE AND OUTSIDE IRAN.
THE WORLD’S LARGEST STATE
SPONSOR OF TERRORISM.
DAN HOFFMAN, ALWAYS GOOD TO SEE