Andriy Zagorodnyuk
is Ukraine's
former defense minister
and an adviser to the current government.
He joins us live
from the Ukrainian capital of Kiev.
Andre,
thank you so much for joining us today.
So you heard the Russian allegations
blaming Ukraine for this.
What is Ukraine's response?
Was Ukraine responsible?
Well, obviously,
I mean,
there is absolutely no point
for Ukraine to do anything like that.
And for us, it's
been shocking that,
you know, that that happened then.
It was shocking how cynically
Russia is blaming us.
And then to be honest,
it was pretty shocking
how many news and media picked up this
and started to call it
a blame game, basically
putting on the same
footing the
you know, the truth and propaganda
and saying that we were pointing fingers
and all that sort of stuff.
I mean, for us, it's it's
it's really difficult
because it's a
it's a psychological
get us stuff in Ukraine
as lots of houses, people without homes.
And so on.
And it's just impossible
for anyone who knows Ukrainian,
Polish and Ukrainian people.
It's just absolutely impossible
to think
that we can do this
with our own population because of them.
Yeah.
So it is understandable.
It is understandable
given Russia's history
and its list of war crimes
committed over the past year
to be skeptical about their
about their response
to who is to blame here.
Do you have evidence, though, to
to point to Russia as the culprit?
Well, first, of all,
there is no reason for Ukraine to do that
because we gain nothing out of this
like whatsoever.
The disruption of water
supply to Crimea
is not going to impact
literally anything
because as you might remember, we
there hasn't been supplies to Crimea
for the water for some years.
And Russians still occupied Crimea
and they still are prepared
for the invasion and so on.
So it's not going to disrupt
any military situation.
However, it's going to seriously disrupt
Ukrainian military offensive
because
because it creates a massive barrier
from the side of your zone.
And Dnipro River,
which would be almost impossible
to cross, was the land
lender land operation.
And of course,
the the
dam was under the occupation of Russians.
So they controlled the dam.
There has been a battalion of
Russian army
standing there full time, like 24, seven.
It's been only occupied territory.
So Ukrainian forces did not control it.
It was heavily
fortified by Russian soldiers.
And so they had a full access to this.
We didn't have any access. Yeah.
You mentioned
you mentioned the impact
that this could have to
the counter offensive,
which is believed to be underway now.
And obviously
Ukraine is not
disclosing its military planning,
but there are military experts
who would have expected
one of the big goals
to sever
that land bridge
connecting Crimea to Ukraine.
This would
this would raise questions
about the possibility of that happening
at least as quickly
as Ukraine would like to see happen.
Are there contingency
plans in the work
given that this played out
the way it did today?
Of course.
And there's been a whole number
of scenarios for the counter-offensive.
So I'm sure that our
armed forces
will switch to some other one.
But indeed, that
complicates the situation
in the south of the country,
particularly around the Iran Crimea,
because if you look at the map,
there is a whole massive piece of land
around the Crimean peninsula.
It on top of it,
which access to that piece of land
from from from the west
basically that's
where the flooding happens.
It's like completely blocked. So.
So indeed,
there's been only a couple crossings
through the Crimea in that area.
And they don't exist anymore.
So, yes, it's we need to do some changes.
Yes. Yeah.
Is there a chance
that this could have been
a natural breach
given the damage that we reported
had recently been done to this damage
just a few days ago?
Well, there needs to
be an
investigation,
but we have seen the explosions.
I'm sure that there will be
videos from satellites.
There would be
evidences of the witnesses and so on.
But there is like a very strong chance
that we have seen
a real video from the explosion.
So it obviously was manmade.
This Operation Nuclear Power Plant,
as you know, relies on the water flow
from the reservoir upstream
to to cool its reactors.
Now, the IAEA says there's, quote,
no immediate nuclear
safety risk at the plant right
now, but it is monitoring the situation.
How concerned
are you about the water levels
there at the reactor?
Not a nuclear specialist,
but what our specialists saying
right now that indeed it is concerning
the discussion of Russians
possibly could have been exploding
the dam were since last year.
There's been lots of articles and studies
since last year because we
we kind of understood
that is one of the key risks
and yes, there were
there is a certain risk.
I'm sure it's manageable.
But but it's definitely
a complicated situation, which is another
which is another argument
in terms of like that
Russians would benefit from this.
But Ukraine
have no benefit from the situation
whatsoever at all.
What are your biggest concerns
given your military background?
In terms of the setback
this could have on the counter offensive
To be honest, I mean, we're quite well
prepared for the
for the counteroffensive.
I don't think that will disrupt our plans
completely.
I mean,
I think that there would be some changes.
There would be some adjustments
I think that Russians are quite panicking
and they also have lack of forces.
So perhaps they will move forces out
from the Occupy, from the flooded areas.
Particularly, they would feel
that that area is going to suffer
because because of difficult access.
So they would move them
to some other direction
and that may somehow impact our
our plans,
but not not cancel them completely.
The flood,
obviously, is a humanitarian tragedy
as well.
And one that could impact
the country's
grain industry
and agricultural industries.
You Kiev is one of the biggest sources
for its revenue
and also a grain supplier for the world.
What are some of the concerns you
have on on that front?
Well, there's
obviously a
ecological
like catastrophic environmental,
technological disaster.
So certainly there would be a massive
infrastructural consequences for this,
which we are only now trying to assess.
There is already
there's already pollution
from the nearby, like oil terminals,
like small oil stations,
which know
all this oil is getting to the water.
So obviously, it's a it's
an environmental issue.
It's very substantial.
And so proper like logistics and proper
trading and
and agriculture
and that whole area
would be severely impacted.
It's difficult
have to like less than 24 hours
to assess that.
But from what we see already, it's it's
of course it's a substantial damage.
The consequences could be substantial.
As you just noted in
just looking at these images,
they're horrifying.
Even those that had
gamed out
the likelihood
that this dam could be breached
last year
didn't expect
water levels to be
as high as they are right now.
So this is, of course,
a serious concern here.
Let me ask you about the war
from a broader perspective,
and that is the
the ultimate goal of the country
after the end of this war,
after Ukraine's victory to join NATO
and that is a pursuit
that the leaders of the country
that President Zelensky
and you yourself continue to make.
You write in Foreign Affairs
this article to protect Europe,
let Ukraine join NATO's right now.
It is time then to let Ukraine
join, not sooner or later,
but now by entering the alliance,
the country will secure its future
as part of the West.
And it can be sure
the United States and Europe
will continue to help it
fight against Moscow.
Europe, too, will reap security benefits
by allowing Ukraine to join the alliance.
It is now apparent that the continent
is not ready to defend itself
and that its politicians
have largely overestimated its security.
Indeed, Europe will never be secure
from Russia
until it can
militarily stop Moscow's attacks,
and no state
is more qualified to do so than Ukraine.
You make a compelling argument
in this piece,
but are you worried that it is
one that is falling on deaf ears?
Because it does appear that
the majority of NATO's members
seem to be tiptoeing around this issue
at the moment.
Yes. Well, thank you.
And the moment
I think that, yes, they're not ready.
And I think that we are with the articles
and with the expert discussions,
which is building up that arguments
and and and
and discussing these was expert
community was bullish makers.
And I think at some time,
European and Western
generally, policymakers
will understand that
Russia is a threat to not just Ukraine,
it's not a regional conflict.
A it's
a substantial conflict
on and off of a much broader scale.
Also, they will understand that
the capability
is currently present in
Eastern Europe are not enough,
and they are helping up
to build a very strong Ukrainian army.
So since they're investing money
and the resources in this army,
why don't plan that these army
would be protecting
the whole Eastern Europe,
not just Ukraine.
And in this case,
it would
make sense to accept it
in their alliance.
I don't think that's going to happen
like tomorrow
or even during Vilnius summit,
which is in one month.
But I think that
by having this discussion
over and over again,
we'll get closer to that.
Andrei, it's a good year.
Thank you. So much for your time today.
And we'll continue
to follow the latest headlines after
this dam breach. Thank you.