Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs Sullivan
Latest representation
There is a risk of conflict over Taiwan
But I believe that through responsible stewardship
We can make sure that such emergencies never happen
What is your interpretation of this?
The Biden Administration's Strategy
Actually two
One is to compete fiercely with China
The second is to avoid the outbreak of conflict between China and the United States
The conflict here obviously refers to the war in the Taiwan Strait
However in this case
Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs
Sullivan said
The United States can manage responsibly
Ensure Taiwan Strait War Never Happens
So
Sullivan's confidence and confidence in making this judgment
where did it come from
in my opinion
Sullivan's so-called confidence and confidence
Time
Shang comes from the Biden administration's political struggles over the past two years.
diplomatic and military
A dazzling array of layouts
And on the whole
We can classify it as a part of the Biden administration.
Soft hand, hard hand, two-handed policy
A soft finger is at the political level
to a considerable extent
Taking care of mainland China's greatest concerns
That is to worry about the United States and the Tsai Ing-wen authorities
Collusion to Promote Taiwan Independence
corrected trump
During Peng Buyao's administration
The practice of slamming and rushing on the Taiwan issue
Not only promised to stick to the American version of a policy
And no longer Youbo Wholesale half-hidden
Clearly put forward the idea of ​​opposing Taiwan independence
Seeking truth from facts
Due to the Anti-Secession Law of Mainland China
has been clearly defined
China will only do so in the event of Taiwan independence
Only by non-peaceful means can the Taiwan issue be resolved
Therefore, this hand of the United States
Indeed, a war in the Taiwan Strait has been ruled out
Biggest political risk
hard hand
This is an attempt to use the so-called principle of strength
Come to congratulate China Indus Taiwan
include an aspect
at the diplomatic level
Further strengthening the US-Japan-US-Australia military alliance
Formation of the US-UK-Australia military alliance
And build the United States, Japan, Britain, Australia
Four-party security dialogue mechanism, etc.
On the other hand, let go and encourage Japan
Australia and Taiwan Authorities Expand Arms and Prepare for War
The Biden administration believes
At the political, diplomatic and military levels
After the soft and hard two-handed layout
The future situation in the Taiwan Strait
will be not alone
Maintain the status quo between these two red lines
Sullivan's so-called confidence and confidence
from two years of planning
The layout of the two red lines of the Biden administration
almost complete
As for the wishful thinking of the US side
Will it finally come true?
I think we can wait and see
But what I want to remind the US side is that
you go to great lengths
Does it look like a good plan?
Fashion has two huge blind spots
One is that you are trying to make the situation in the Taiwan Strait
Perpetually maintain the status quo in no gamble and no war
but did not take into account
The Chinese government and the 1.4 billion Chinese people
A firm will to promote national unity
The second is arranged by the US side
The two red lines of not being alone and being depressed
Its essence is actually an external force
对台湾问题的介入
有位于中共在二十大报告中
确定的既要反对台独
又要反对外部势力干涉的政治主张
沙利文此次对台海局势的表态
发生在每日领导人会误前
两国还将在1月11号举行
外涨加房涨的2+2会议
那么您认为
每日两国如此密集的外交互动的目的
究竟是什么呢
我认为毫无疑问
最近几年来
尤其是拜登就任美国总统以来
每日两国在
外交与军事层面
进行密集互动的核心目的
其实就是针对中国
尤其是针对台海局势
而且从最近两三年
每日外交与军事互动的轨迹来看
他们实际上是采取了非常清晰的
三步骤战略
第一步就是进一步确定了
要在外交层面深化甚至再造每日同盟
与在军事上构建每日攻守同盟的战略
第二步就是要将深化相关战略
落实为两国的政策
甚至是法律
第三步就是要将这些大战略
政策与法律落实为实际上的行动
那么从目前情势来看
每日两国的第一步与第二步计划
基本上都已经实现了
2021年4月
时任日本首相菅义伟
房美
与拜登总统共同发表的每日联合声明
下的就是第一步棋
而且在重申美国对日本
协防与保护的义务之外
还特别强调了
日本也肩负着保护美国的责任和义务
为此还着重指出
日本需要进一步强化自己的国防能力
也就是每日之间在安全上要实现付保
第二步就是每日
各自将每日联合生命中达成的共识
转化为了本国的外交与国防政策
为此
拜登政府于2022年中通过了新的国家安
全保障战略
而日本也与同年底
修改了自己的安保战略
而在走完的第一步与第二步齐之后
我们就可以非常清楚的知道
每日接下来举行外长加房长2+2会议
以及岸田即将防美会务
拜登目的就是要左手下第三步棋
也就是要将这些大战略
政策与法律落实为实际上的行动
包括美国两国
如何分配各自的进攻与防卫任务
如何部署美国的政府巡航导弹
以及每日如何进一步共享军事信息
与情报等等
至于在台湾问题上
我认为
每日两国在这次密集的外交互动之后
应该不会有出格的表态
而是会继续维持其坚持一个中国
反对台独的基本政策
以及做出
维持台湾海峡和平稳定非常重要
这种笼统的表态
但在实际行动上
他们一定会加紧备战
并企图以通过备战
来达到所谓的避震的这样一个目的
好的
谢谢刘先生在线与我们分享您的观点
谢谢