i guess you know my final eighth question it's just kind of like general
is um because you know that's totally cool you said you're more interested in something um
you know long-term investments you're not interested in the uh smaller caps i'm sure
you have read this um but like have you ever like i'm sure you've seen ethereum investment thesises
like the two i'm thinking of are kobe from up only went on uh three arrow capital ceos on common core
podcast gave his eth investors thesis uh twitter handle squish chaos uh gave a long report alleging
that ethereum could hit like 73k by 2023. it's not about the number that's arbitrary was more
about the reasoning like you said like a lot of these bigger caps aren't going away anytime soon
what do you think about the ethereum investors thesis going into each 2.0 and maybe a couple
years after that yeah again it goes back to uh what are you optimizing for right and so if
you're simply optimizing for what is going to go the highest the fastest right i talk a lot about
like this barbell strategy i have so bitcoin let's say that that's the most conservative asset in the
industry it's the most durable it's the one that people believe uh is most likely to be around for
the longest time but from a upside like volatility standpoint super volatile compared to traditional
assets actually not nearly as volatile let's say the long tail of other things and so if you're
optimizing for durability and almost protection of your wealth bitcoin is this amazing thing and oh
by the way as the world reprices it like it will likely do very well as well from a a us dollar
return standpoint if you want the greatest upside like forget ether or anything in like the top ten
like just let's go to the coin casino right like and and not in like a a negative way it's just
like if that's your game it's like hey how do i get a thousand x right there's things that are way
out on the long tail that are much more likely to do that than i would say kind of these things in
the middle um and so i don't actually believe most people are willing to do that right i don't think
people are willing to go and make like the casino bet on thousand x's consistently because one out
of every 100 works and people have the stomach uh to survive 99 losses right like a lot of people
think that they can do that but they can't and so when you think about something like ether i
think that what ends up happening is uh there's my understanding three separate investment thesis
that people have one is like it's like i'll call like the world computer thesis right everything's
gonna get built on top of it etc the second is um what i'll call more of uh like an ultrasound money
right it is kind of the uh the mean that's used there and then the third and it's
related to the first two but but i would put in a separate category is like a market structure
right hey a bunch of people are staking this we're burning and so like the the uh kind of supply
squeeze thesis that people talk about with bitcoin like could happen with e and i actually think that
eth could go up and all three could be invalid right like the world computer could not happen
uh the ultrasound money could not happen and the supply sh you know squeeze could
happen uh could not happen and ethel still go up because institutions just say hey this is the next
uh you know second biggest asset so if one goes up the other will go up so i'll buy
right or it could go up because the other three things are all true or one of the three things
is true whatever and so to me it it's less about like is one individual thesis correct
and it's more so when you take the totality of um of all of the thesis and you look at them
and ask yourself is it a probability that eth will go up in the future i just back out and i say
i don't think there's very many things in the top ten that are gonna go down in the future like like
to me it's just the tailwind of the market ends up taking over and so of course ethan's in there
now one thing that i do think people in this kind of investing world it's a little
bit more it feels like more like wall street when people are talking about like investing
uh in liquid assets more so than like the venture capital community um one of the the key things
that i apologize i don't remember who said this but i think it's so uh so good is you know when a
bad team meets a good market the market wins and when a good team meets a bad market the market
wins and so it's the same thing here which is just i actually think the sector bets on
crypto or bitcoin encrypted however you want to describe this whole world is just so ridiculous
like strong tailwind that if you look at it over a long enough period of time you know you're
gonna have to have been pretty bad at investing and made some like pretty significant mistakes
uh to have not benefited from that tailwind now if you don't follow timeless investing principles
you can blow up tomorrow right but if people are basically building any level of
risk management into it if they're having long time horizons they're not trying to be
a day trader if that's not their specialty or whatever like all of that stuff i think i'll
work to their advantage and so bringing it back to eth it's like i tend to think
there's just a hard argument as to like why the price won't go up and i actually don't hear even
like the hardest core bitcoin believers in the short to medium term i don't hear uh all right
i don't think anyone's told me that they believe eth is gonna go down in the short to medium term
so it ultimately then goes to like well where is the real debate right and i said something
actually on twitter this morning i said you know i haven't heard anyone ever say eath isn't
a 350 billion dollar network like no the market decided that's what it's worth right at the moment
and so i think it's it's hard to debate like facts in in the in uh the current time where the debate
happens what's going to happen in the future so the proponents of ethel say things you know around
uh proof of stake they'll say things around uh the burning of eth and kind of all of the
upgrades they'll say things around staking or other things that'll be built on top etc
the critics will say oh that's bad or you know ethan's going to become centralized or the burning
it you know isn't guaranteed forever or there's a variable monetary policy like all this stuff
i have no clue but like i have opinions in terms of you know the likelihood of the incentives right
where eath has to pursue efficiency because it has to compete with so many other smart contract
platforms and ultimately performance will end up being more important than decentralization
but like who am i i i don't know right and so when you get in that world uh to me that is a world
that's really really hard to kind of unpack uh and so i just choose not to participate like it's not
intellectually interesting to me i don't spend time thinking or reading about it and so like if
i'm not willing to spend mental energy on it why would i go spend capital energy on it right and
so it's like you know i mean you guys see what i tweet and talk about all day it's like literally
i think about bitcoin all day long and so of course your capital is going to flow kind of
like your your interest or your your mental energy but if somebody said to me hey i think
eth is going to go down tomorrow i would have a pretty hard time you know reconciling uh the
like almost like a security selection with the industry tailwind like those two things would
seem to be at odds with me and that's true of you know most of the uh of the large caps
what you said is true you know a huge bitcoin proponent uh you know it's awesome whenever you
go on cnbc or tweet about it uh but i do happen to know that you are a reader of the defiant
newsletter and the defiant podcast i'm an investor i know i don't know if people do that yeah i'm
an investor i think what uh what she's doing is amazing she by far is probably from the beginning
been the absolute best at covering all of uh of that kind of sector of the world yes great
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