Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a decree to send what he is describing as
peacekeeping troops into the separatist regions of Luhansk and Donetsk.
The decision comes after Putin recognized both regions as independent states and described
Ukraine as an ancient Russian territory.
Putin had made that announcement on state television, stating, " I think it is necessary
to make a long-overdue decision to immediately recognize the independence and sovereignty
of the Donetsk people's Republic and Luhansk people's Republic"
The move of sending troops in the two regions mark a significant escalation amid fears Russia
could soon launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
While Mr. Putin has stated that Ukraine becoming a NATO member is a security threat for Russia,
there is a lot more to this which might compel him to make a decisive move.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes why Russian President Putin might order invasion
of Ukraine?
Let's get into the details.
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World War I influenced the young Hitler, who was a frontline soldier from 1914 to 1918.
Like most German people, he saw defeat as a national humiliation which was aggravated
by the harsh terms of the Treaty of Versailles at the conclusion of World War I.
We all know how this shaped his decision making.
This is similar for Putin too.
Born in Leningrad in 1952, Putin came of age in the Soviet Union's golden years, the period
after the USSR's miraculous triumph in World War Two.
The time of Sputnik, the hydrogen bomb, Laika the dog and Yuri Gagarin.
But everything deteriorated slowly that culminated in the disintegration of the USSR.
He is someone who was deeply affected by the collapse of the Soviet Union and he has himself
said that he considers it as a great mistake.
Many experts believe that Putin wants to fix this and rebuild the Soviet empire by slowly
absorbing what he thinks are break-away provinces.
There is a will in him to restore back the glory days of being a superpower.
Ukraine has extremely rich mineral resources in high concentrations and close proximity
to each other.
The country has abundant reserves of coal, iron ore, natural gas, etc
For example, it is 7th place in the world in iron extraction, 8th in manganese extraction,
6th in titanium extraction, 2nd in gallium extraction, 8th in graphite
extraction, 13th in power plant coal extraction, 10th in uranium extraction.
In this regard, viewers may note that sanctions imposed after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014
have hurt the Russian economy to a significant extent -Foreign Direct Investments have plunged
by 50%, Ruble fell about 50% with respect to Dollar and most importantly disposable
income of Russians plummeted by around 10%.
It is no rocket science that physical control of Ukraine's resources will be extremely beneficial
for the Russian economy.
These resources will also give Russia a leverage over the world, especially the EU just like
its gas supply does.
In Nov 2013, Ukraine saw massive protests.
Viktor Yanukovych who was the president of Ukraine and openly pro Moscow rejected an
EU deal and instead opted for a $15 billion bailout from Russia.
Many Ukrainian saw through it and understood that Yanukovych was selling the country to
Russia tacitly and a protest broke out known as 'Euromaidan' literally 'Euro Square'.
The situation escalated after the violent dispersal of protesters on 30 November, leading
to many more protesters joining.
The protests led to the 2014 Ukrainian revolution, known as the Revolution of Dignity.
In Feb 2014, Yanukovych's government was toppled, the president fled to Russia and Moscow lost
its hold.
It was clear that Ukrainians wanted to trade with the west and wanted to be integrated
into western institutions.
This is totally different from the past when Ukraine & the U.S were adversaries.
Ukraine's relationship with the U.S also improved under current President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Putin doesn't no longer has a remote control to manage Ukraine.
The developments in Ukraine are a dangerous sign for President Putin at a personal level.
He is a dictator.
Not only does he rule Russia but he has stakes in most of the larger Russian companies and
profits from them.
He wants to keep it that way - protecting his own position & power.
If Ukrainians can remove high-handed and very corrupt Viktor Yanukovych, there is no reason
why Russian can't do the same to Putin.
There is pent-up anger in Russians against Putin and things could go out of hands if
democratic activism and emotions associated with those values propagate in the neighboring
region.
This is is a red line for him.
Putin would like to have these quashed by invading Ukraine.
The United States has warned the United Nations it has “credible information” that Russia
is getting a list together of Ukrainians “to be killed or sent to camps following military
occupation,” according to a letter sent to the U.N. human rights chief.
The letter was first reported by the Washington Post and later confirmed by others, indicating
his intentions.