It has been palpable that the war in Ukraine is not going according to plans for Russia.
As per estimates, more than 50,000 Russian troops have been killed and there are massive
losses of weapons and other war supplies.
Ukrainian forces have pushed back Russia from many areas and regained control of large portions
of their territory.
Now, Russian President Vladimir Putin has taken a major step in an effort to change
the situation.
In a rare address to the nation, he announced that a decree on the partial mobilization
of its 2 million-strong military reserves has been signed.
The decision, Putin said, was taken “to defend the motherland, its sovereignty and
territorial integrity”.
Putin said in the pre-recorded footage, “Only those citizens currently in the reserve
will be subject to a call-up for military service, first and foremost those who have
served in the ranks of the Armed Forces” 18-60-year-old men will be drafted, beginning
with reservists.
Putin’s address to the nation comes a day after Russian-controlled regions in eastern
and southern Ukraine announced plans to hold what seems like sham referendums on whether
they want to become part of Russia.
An alleged document from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs indicates that starting
Sep 22, traffic checkpoints across Russia will be manned by military commissars and
men eligible for mobilization will be technically rounded up for deployment.
It is clear that unannounced Martial Law is in effect in Russia.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes why President Putin's mobilization effort will
not help turn the tide in the Ukraine conflict ?
Let's get started.
For the people of Russia it has gone from 'I support
the war', 'I am not affected' to now being in the middle of it all.
The harsh truth is now beginning to bite and indications are that people are not willing
to put their lives at risk for this conflict.
They do not want to go over there!!
People in Russia have hit the streets to protest Putin's decision.
Thousands of people are thought to be arrested.
International flights departing Russia have either sold out or skyrocketed in price after
Putin announced the mobilization of reservists.
For example, the price of a plane ticket out of Moscow to Astana, Kazakhstan is 1 million
rubles.
~ $16,000 USD.
The traffic jam at Russia - Finland border piled up to 35 km or 21 miles, it is the only
border still open for Russian civilians with Schengen visas.
The ruling has an increased punishment for deserters indicating that the Kremlin knows
that people don't serve willingly.
After more than 6 months of fighting with Spetsnaz, Airborne & 190+ Battalion Tactical
Groups, Russia has achieved limited objectives.
Several Russian soldiers who were pushed into the war front have revealed that they had
very limited training and organizational support.
It is well documented there are issues with morale and discipline among Russian troops.
The situation of the reservists will be worse.
So, new recruits will find it even more difficult.
Modern weapons are lethal and it is clearly visible in the kind of casualties being reported.
All indications point to the fact that these fresh lads who don't have much training will
serve only as "cannon fodder" Just like 9 pregnant ladies cannot deliver
a baby in 1 month, you can't turn an ill-trained reservist into a professional soldier in a
few weeks.
Napoleon Bonaparte stated, "The amateurs discuss tactics: the professionals discuss logistics"
A modern army that had several months to plan an invasion is supposed to be well supplied
with basic requirements, but this has not been the case with the Russian military.
Logistics issues have plagued the Russian war effort from the very beginning and it
has not been suitably resolved to date.
Russian soldiers in Ukraine had to resort to crowdsourcing their own equipment, including
medical supplies and GPS kits.
Postings on social media sites such as Telegram are filled with appeals for funds to buy first
aid kits with syringes, painkilling injections, and frontline medications.
More men will mean more clothes, more food, more transportation and other essential supplies.
This will put huge strains on already fumbling logistics.
War in Ukraine has put a lot of question marks on Russian weapons.
As per reports, Russia has expended more than 70% of their precision strike weapons like
250 kg (550 lb) KAB-250 and 500 kg (1,100 lb) KAB-500 precision-guided bombs, Iskander
and Kalibre missiles.
The problem has made Russia fall back on 20th-century warfare tactics of indiscriminate shelling
which cause huge civilian casualties and can't provide swift victories.
The Russian Air Force seems to be playing a limited role since the combat availability
of the aircraft is low.
Russian famed air defenses have been breached.
On 14th Apr, the Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed that the Russian Navy’s Black
Sea flagship RTS Moskva (121) has been sunk.
The frontline warship had a triple-layered air defense system but was unable to stop
the two incoming Neptune Anti-Ship Missiles.
Viewers may note that Neptune is a subsonic missile and most modern warships are supposed
to reliably defend even against supersonic missiles especially when they have to deal
with only a few like in the case of Moskva.
Since that setback, Russia has been putting land-based air defense systems such as Tor
on ships to prevent a repeat.
But apparently, this has not worked.
Russian tugboat Vasily Bekh was hit when it was transporting supplies to Snake Island
and was struck by two Western-supplied Harpoon anti-ship missiles even though it had Tor
for protection.
Several S-300 systems have been destroyed and Russia doesn't seem to have any answers
to American supplied HIMARS.
More boots on the ground can't cover up for such inadequacy in weapons