The first World Cup semi-final pitches Didier Deschamps’s France against the Belgium of
Roberto Martinez.
France have stuck largely with their 4-2-3-1, though this has an asymmetrical quality, with
either Blaise Matuidi or Corentin Tolisso playing on the left hand side of the attacking
midfield three.
Kylian Mbappe is the danger man, while France’s full backs push high, especially Benjamin
Pavard on the right in to the space left by Mbappe, while N’Golo Kante covers and Paul
Pogba drives forwards from a deep midfield role.
Against them, Belgium have used a 3-4-2-1 and, against Brazil, a 4-3-3 in defence which
moved to a 3-4-3 in possession.
Normally, the back three is flanked by wing backs Thomas Meunier and Yannick Carrasco,
while Romelu Lukaku leads the line ahead of Dries Mehrtens and Eden Hazard.
Kevin De Bruyne pulls the strings from a deep midfield position, but against Brazil, de
Bruyne played as a false nine, flanked by Lukaku and Hazard, ahead of a midfield three
– this allowed Belgium to target Brazil’s left flank and set up one on ones when countering.
Because Lucas Hernandez is less of an attacking outlet than Marcelo, Lukaku is unlikely to
play on the right again – de Bruyne might play higher, though, with Hazard.
While France’s team shape and selection is unlikely to spring a surprise, Belgium’s
still could.
Both teams have decisions to make and areas that they can target.
Romelu Lukaku has been superb so far this tournament.
As well as scoring four goals, his all-round contribution has been immense, aware and intelligent
in his link-up play.
He may fancy his chances against Raphael Varane and Samuel Umtiti.
Varane is a quick and elegant defender, but Lukaku can push him physically.
Umtiti can be a little rash, pushing forwards, and if Belgium can drop players in to the
space in front of him, Lukaku could exploit any gaps that appear.
He is unlikely to start on the right again, but could drift out there, again to target
the space between Hernandez and Umtiti.
Marouane Fellaini started against Brazil on the right of a midfield three in defence,
tucking inside when Belgium pushed forwards in possession to allow Thomas Meunier to overlap.
His aerial ability is well known and, indeed, Fellaini often looks best, as against England
in the groups, as a kind of attacking midfielder.
From here he can push up late, unsettle the build up from deep by man-marking the defensive
midfielder, and act as an out ball for long passes.
Against Kante especially, this could work well.
France do have other means of transitioning, but Fellaini pushed high would be a handful.
It also allows Belgium a second target for long passes against the French press, which
could be vital in relieving the defence.
Belgium have had issues down the left hand side.
Yannick Carrasco is not a natural wing back and this has meant that either Jan Vertonghen
is caught trying to mark a huge swathe of space out wide, or the opposition get a free
run down in behind Carrasco.
This was solved, in part, by Martinez when he switched to a back four against Brazil,
but Vertonghen is not a natural left back either and tucked in when Belgium had the
ball.
Either way, France’s Kylian Mbappe and Benjamin Pavard will be looking forward to Belgium’s
left side.
They are both quick and interchange intelligently, with Mbappe cutting in or pushing up, and
Pavard overlapping well.
Martinez could counter by going to a back four again, but France will still scent weakness
on that side.
Olivier Giroud did not start France’s first game this tournament, but he’s become an
integral part of the system since then.
His ability to link play means that whoever marks him, either Vincent Kompany or Toby
Alderweirled, will need to stop him bringing France’s quicker players into the game.
Stepping ahead could work, as Giroud is not the quickest, but he is a wily and experienced
player and could win free kicks from aggressive defender.
Belgium’s best bet is to stop the ball getting to him at all, but they neither excel at defending
crosses nor stopping quick vertical passes from deep.
Belgium’s best bet could be to push high and deny space to France all together, but
then they have to watch Mbappe breaking the line.
Giroud poses so many questions of defenders, it’s a wonder he is still underrated in
some quarters.
Two sides who have looked exceptional at times in attack, but who have also offered chances
to their opponents – this semi-final will come down to who can exploit those weaknesses
more clincally.