QUARTER SINCE 2015.
FIRST WHERE IS THIS MARKET
HEADING, MARKET WATCHER DAN
SHAFFER AND DEIRDRE BOLTON AND
DAVID ASMAN.
DAN, YOU'RE THE MAN WHEN THE
MARKET GOES DOWN.
YOU'RE GIVING US CAUTIONARY
WARNINGS HOW INFLATED THIS
MARKET IS.
IS THIS BIG ONE?
>> NO, THIS IS THE JUST THE
BEGINNING.
IT IS NOT THE BIG ONE.
I THINK THE MARKET COULD RALLY
FROM HERE OR EARLY IN APRIL AND
MAKE ANOTHER TOP AGAIN.
AT THAT POINT, MY TARGET, JUNE
WILL BE END OF RALLY OF LAST
NINE YEARS.
CHARLES YOU'RE SAYING DOUBLE TOP
FORMATION
>> LONG TERM I'M SAYING SELL THE
RALLIES.
THAT IS MY OPINION.
CHARLES: DEIRDRE WE HAVE LOT OF
REASON FOR MARKET UNDER
PRESSURE.
10-YEAR YIELD IS NEAR 3%.
THE 10-YEAR YIELD IS DOWN TOO
MUCH, WHAT IS GOING ON IN
FEDERAL RESERVE WILL HIKE RATES
FOUR TIMES.
ALMOST EVERY WEEK OR DAY THERE
IS A NEW REASON DE JURE.
>> I AGREE.
SEEMS IF VOLATILITY HAS BEEN
CRANKED UP, RIGHT?
FOR LAST FEW YEARS, YOU HAD DATA
POINTS EVERY NOW AND THEN COULD
HAVE GIVEN INVESTORS PAUSE THAT
DIDN'T.
SINCE FEBRUARY, THE TWO WEEK
BRUTAL SELLOFF WE SAW.
YOU HAVE WORRIES CREEPING IN.
I'VE BEEN WATCHING TECH AS YOU
KNOW VERY CLOSELY.
TO EARLY TO SAY WHETHER THERE IS
A SHIFT IN SENTIMENT.
THE FACT SO MANY TECH COMPANIES,
ONES WE ALL KNOW AND FOLLOW MAY
BE PRONE TO REGULATION.
THAT IS BEGINNING TO SHIFT
SENTIMENT FOR A GROUP THAT IS
REALLY BEEN THE MARKETS BRIGHT
SPOT EVEN IN SOME OF THE PAST.
CHARLES: THE PROBLEM NO ONE
GRABS THE RALLY BATON, RIGHT?
FOR A WHILE EVERYONE THOUGHT
FINANCIALS WOULD TAKE MARKET
HIGHER IF FINANCIALS STUMBLED.
YOU KNOW, DAVE,
JANUARY 26th, PRESIDENT
TRUMP WENT TO DAVOS.
THREW DOWN THE GAUNTLET.
THAT WAS THE PEAK OF THE MARKET.
SINCE THEN HE DODD THINGS AND
SAID THINGS THAT HAVE GONE
AGAINST TRADITIONAL CONSERVATIVE
ORTHODOXY, IS THAT PLAYING A BIG
ROLE HERE?
>> I THINK IT IS IN THE
TEMPORARY POINT.
WHEN HISTORY WRITES ABOUT THIS
EAR THEY WILL LOOK AT THIS AS
JUST THE BEGINNING.
WE HAD A JOBLESS CLAIM AT
45-YEAR LOW.
JOBLESS CLAIM 45-YEAR-OLD.
YOU'VE BEEN TALKING RETAIL FOR
MONTHS NOW.
4% INCREASE IN RETAIL SALES.
WE'RE IN AN ECONOMIC BOOM PERIOD
RIGHT NOW.
AND I THINK ALL THESE OTHER
THINGS, WE'VE SEEN HOW TRUMP HAS
CHANGED LANGUAGE ON TARIFFS.
WE HAVE PETER NAVARRO IN THE
4:00 HOUR, I WANT TO PLUG THAT.
AT FIRST PETER NAVARRO SAID
THERE WOULD BE NO EXCEPTIONS TO
THE TARIFFS.
WE SAW ALL THE EXCEPTIONS.
NOW WE HAVE A SOUTH KOREAN TRADE
DEAL WITHOUT ANY TARIFFS.
MY POINT, ALL FEARS OF THE
MARKET THERE WILL BE SOMETHING
ARE OVERRIDDEN, OVERSHADOWED
THAT THIS IS THE MOST
BUSINESS-FRIENDLY ADMINISTRATION
WE'VE HAD SINCE RONALD REAGAN.
YOU CAN'T IGNORE THAT I THINK IT
IS JUST BEGINNING.
CHARLES: I WANT TO THROW THIS
IN, TODAY WE HAD THE FINAL
MARCH.
CURRENT CONDITIONS HIT ALL TIME
RECORD.
PEOPLE HAVE NEVER BEEN THIS
OPTIMISTIC IN THE HISTORY OF THE
REPORT BUT EXPECTATIONS FOR SIX
MONTHS DOWN THE ROAD ACTUALLY
WENT DOWN.
THAT POINTS TO HEADLINE RISK AND
PEOPLE, ANXIETY, PEOPLE FEEL
AMAZINGLY FREIGHT RIGHT NOW.
THEY'RE NOT SURE.
BY THE WAY, SHOWING PRESIDENT
TRUMP, THAT IS LIVE RIGHT NOW.
HE IS IN OHIO.
HE WILL BE PITCHING
INFRASTRUCTURE.
THE INFRASTRUCTURE STOCKS, BY
THE WAY, HAVING A VERY GOOD
SESSION LED BY U.S. STEEL.
>> HE HAS EARPIECE IN, LISTENING
TO FOX BUSINESS WANT TO LET THE
AUDIENCE KNOW.
WAVE IF YOU'RE LISTENING TO FOX
BUSINESS.
>> YOU GOT IT.
CHARLES: DAN, HELP US OUT HERE.
>> I HEAR DAVE'S POINTS ABOUT
ALL THE GREAT NUMBERS.
ALL THE HISTORIC LOWS.
LOOK AT NUMBERS COME OUT OF
EUROPE, ITALY AROUND THE WORLD.
DON'T LOOK SO GOOD.
CANADA DOESN'T LOOK SO GOOD.
YET THE MARKET PREDICTION THE
FUTURE.
THINGS ARE SO ROSY DAVID, YIELD
30-YEAR YIELD, TWO YEAR ARE WAY
OUT OF WHACK.
>> DAN, YOU'RE SOUNDING LIKE AN
ECONOMIST.
NOT A BUSINESS PERSON.
BUSINESS PEOPLE RECOGNIZE -- BUT
BUSINESS PEOPLE RECOGNIZE WE
HAVE SO FEW REGULATIONS RIGHT
NOW COMPARED TO WHAT WE HAD JUST
A YEAR-AND-A-HALF AGO THAT THERE
IS A CLEAR ROAD WHERE THERE WAS
ONE THAT WAS CLUTTERED WITH ALL
THESE REGULATIONS AND ALL THESE
TAXES.
YES WE HAVE PROBLEMS WITH THE
TAX CODE.
WE HAVE PHASE TWO OF THE TAX
CODE COMING IN.
WHICH MEANS THE OVERALL RATES
WILL COME DOWN AGAIN.
I JUST THINK WE ARE SEEING A
VERY BRIGHT ECONOMIC FUTURE AND
THAT RIGHT NOW IS BEING
UNDERPLAYED BY THE FEAR IN THE
MARKET.
>> I AGREE WITH YOU THERE IS A
GREAT ECONOMIC FUTURE BUT IT IS
NOT THE NEXT TWO YEARS.
IT WILL BE LATER.
RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT A LOT TO GO
THROUGH.
>> WHICH MEANS NOW IS THE TIME
TO BUY, RIGHT?
>> DEPENDS WHAT YOU'RE BUYING.
IF YOU LOOK AT COMMODITY CROPS
DECLINED.
>> IF YOU HOLD FOR TWO OR THREE
YEARS?
>> IF YOU HOLD TWO OR THREE
YEARS YOU WILL HAVE BUYING
OPPORTUNITIES.
IF YOU THINK YOU WILL MAKE MONEY
NEXT TWO YEARS I THINK IT WILL
BE A ROUGH CROWD.
I'M SAYING THIS SERIOUSLY.
THE BOND MARKET IS DEEPEST
MARKET IN THE WORLD.
THERE IS A LOT OF DEBT THAT HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
THERE IS A REASON WHY THE
10-YEAR AND 30-YEAR YIELDS ARE
NOT MOVING UP.
I BELIEVE BY END OF THE YEAR THE
10-YEAR YIELD COULD BE BELOW 2%.
THAT IS THE WAY IT IS SETTING
UP.
THAT IS VERY DANGEROUS FOR THE
ECONOMY GOING FORWARD.
I THINK THE U.S. DOLLAR --
>> YOU BUY SHORT-TERM BOND NOW.
>> LOOK AT THE BOND TODAY, WHY
THEY RALLIED.
CAME IN HERE, THERE IS VERY
STRONG BID SINCE 8:00 IN THE 30
YEAR TREASURY MARKET.
I DON'T KNOW WHY.
CHARLES: DO THEY TAKE THEIR CUES
FROM THE BOND MARKET OR TAKE
THEIR CUES FROM CORPORATE
AMERICA AND DATA KEEPS COMING
OUT THAT SUGGEST IS WE ARE IN AN
ECONOMIC RALLY MODE RIGHT NOW.
OF COURSE OCCASIONALLY YOU WILL
HAVE A HICCUP HERE AND THERE,
BUT FOR THE MOST PART LOOKS LIKE
EVERYTHING POINTS TO HIGHER
WAGES.
EVERYTHING POINTS TO THE ECONOMY
GROWING REALLY WELL.
YOU MENTIONED GDP.
>> JOBLESS CLAIMS WAY DOWN.
CHARLES: SINCE 1973.
RECONCILE ALL THIS PARTICULARLY
AS AN INVESTOR?
I'M ALWAYS CAUTIOUS ABOUT
WHIPSAWING PEOPLE OR HAVING
PEOPLE TAKE A LOSS TO AVOID A
TWO-WEEK DIP REGRETTING IT A
MONTH LATER, OR A YEAR LATER IN.
>> I'M GLAD YOU BRING THAT UP.
PEOPLE WITH 401(k)S OR
PENSIONS, THEY SET IT AND
FORGET.
THEY GO INTO PASSIVE INVESTORS.
THEY GO INTO PRODUCTS MORE OR
LESS MIMIC THE INDICES
PERFORMANCE.
I TAKE YOUR POINT.
YES, IF YOU DON'T NEED THE MONEY
IN NEXT TWO OR THREE YEARS, KEEP
BUYING, KEEP ADDING, CLOSE TO
RETIREMENT, MAYBE YOU HAVE A
CONVERSATION.
>> EVEN 401(k)S ARE
DOLLAR-COST AVERAGING, EVEN IF
IT GOES LOWER, YOU WANT IT TO GO
LOWER IF YOU'RE INVESTOR IN
401(k).
>> OTHER INVESTOR SEEM TO GET