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You may have to decide to obey the law or disobey the law.
That might end up being your decision.
You can't stop it.
They can't stop you from using Ethereum.
They can't stop it.
They can't stop you from using XRP.
They can't stop it. Right?
But they can say it's illegal.
Just like they couldn't stop anybody from smoking weed.
But you know what they did?
They made it a lot more freaking difficult for people.
You don't think that's what they can do with Bitcoin?
If the government comes out today and says Bitcoin is banned,
you understand that stands in the United States as law, right?
Like, you can fight it. You can appeal it.
You can still keep using it just like people kept smoking weed
until it became legal in their states.
They're not legal everywhere.
But that's all they got to do, is say it's illegal, you dummy.
That's it.
So it's really fascinating to watch the climate change stuff specifically
because I am not in favor, of course, of changing Bitcoin.
I don't want to change Bitcoin.
I love Bitcoin.
I don't want to change Bitcoin to proof-of-stake.
But if the wrong people--
what you're seeing with Gary Gensler is,
if the wrong people get in power,
they can push this very, very, very far.
Now, I wanted to bet somebody two Bitcoin
that Ethereum would not be a security.
You think that that's a safe bet?
- The Ethereum initial sale or the Ethereum-- - No, no, not the token sale.
- None of the token sales are included - Okay.
- because that's not-- - Just Ethereum as it stands today?
- Yes. - Yeah.
- No, I think that's a good bet. - Yeah.
I want a Bitcoin maximalist who thinks Ethereum's going to be a security
to take me up on that.
So there's a challenge, Bitcoin maximalists.
Whichever one of you is dumb enough to take on this challenge,
I'll be on Twitter all day.
Now, when it comes to to that stuff though,
if hypothetically Gary Gensler were to win and bring basically all of crypto under his tutelage,
regulation,
like, that's horrible for the crypto space, right?
There's no question about that.
Why do people want to turn away from the Bitcoin cycles?
It just keeps going on the same cycle!
Stop trying to predict the one gigantic outlier!
I think, I'll tell you this,
I am now starting to believe there is a good chance I think
that we're at $50,000 by the time of the halving.
If that occurs, we could be looking at the supercycle for Bitcoin.
So I think kind of what we're going to do when we look at price predictions,
because we're about to start doing price predictions here pretty soon,
so I'm going to take them very seriously.
I did take them serious last time,
but I was too bullish, and I think it hurt people.
So we're going to probably go more conservative than people think we're going to.
A lot of our numbers may actually not even be as high as they were for the last one.
But we're going to give some different price points.
And we're going to give you some predictions.
If Bitcoin's at $20,000 when we have,
if it's $30,000, $40,000, $50,000, $60,000,
we should be able to show you guys where we think we'll be based on those numbers.
Because if we're at a higher price point than $35,000 by the time of the halving,
we could be looking at a supercycle.
It is potential.
- And TJ thinks we're going to see one, right? - Yeah. I mean, yeah.
- If we reverse diminishing returns, - Yes.
- that basically means we get a supercycle. - I 100% think this will be--
- we'll reverse diminishing returns this cycle. - Yeah.
And a part of that is I think we're going to get some type of regulatory stuff at some point
- throughout between now and the halving - Yeah.
that starts to clear the path for some real big money to come in.
So this from Shredderslice.
Here's some Super Chats.
"If I put $20K into 10 coins at today's prices,
(BTC, ETH, ADA, FIL, MATIC, XLM, SAND, GRT, MINA, OP) $2K in each,
what can I expect my portfolio to look like in 2025?"
I mean, I would probably say $100,000 at least, right?
- Honestly, that's modest. Yeah. - Maybe 250?
That'd be like 11X.
Yeah, I think $250K is pretty reasonable, I think.
Alright. Let's move on to tools that you guys could use.
I'm going to review them.
This is LookIntoBitcoin.
Making Bitcoin data accessible to everyone.
No paywall, no data capture,
just free live charts using institutional-grade data.
- Look at all these charts for free. - Yeah.
All this stuff is for free. It's a great, great free tool.
- Let's check out the Pi Cycle Top indicator. - Yeah.
- Oh, this is where the Pi Cycle Top indicator was. - Right.
- This is where we looked at it. Yeah. - That's what I'm saying.
It's a lot-- it's very similar.
- A lot of the same stuff that's on Glassnode is on this website as well. - Yeah.
So on-chain analytics, all sorts of different charts.
Okay. So if you look back here, this is where it crossed.
This is where we restarted the bear market really.
Of course, we did have a higher price point, but sentiment was a little bit better.
You look here, you see we've got a wide gap here.
It was at the widest and then it bounced up.
This was probably the widest right here.
And then we're popping back up.
So Pi Cycle stuff looks pretty good.
Here's the NUPL.
Not as good as the other one.
It doesn't have the color indicators.
Oh, look.
When was the last time we picked up into this?
This was the 2019 run up.
Interesting.
And look at this for the lows.
Low
Higher low
I believe this is a higher low.
Yeah, higher low.
Interesting.
And the same thing up here,
you get high a high.
Is this a lower high or not?
74.82
Yep.
So this is a high.
This is a lower high.
And this is a lower high.
So interesting stuff what we looked at there with NUPL.
So, yeah. So this is good.
if you guys were looking for a place that got free Bitcoin charts,
it's lookintobitcoin.com.
So there you go.
So there's a cool tool for you guys.