Alright, good morning everybody.
I'm KHOU 11 meteorologist Tim Pan Dagis here
with an update on Hurricane Ida category.
One storm is the latest
85 mile per hour winds.
So if you've been watching this storm
and there's a lot of interest in it
over the last several advisories,
the storm has maintained its intensity.
For the short term, that's a good thing,
but there are several indicators
present right now that show that
rapid intensification is not too far
off and may already be occurring.
I'll show you those reasons in just a
few seconds expected to make landfall as
a category four major hurricane at 130 mph.
We're talking in about 28 hours,
28 to 38 hours from now,
tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening,
bringing with it those winds,
130 gusting to one 6165.
It could even be a little bit
stronger than that as we approach
landfall tomorrow during the South
in the southeast coast of Louisiana.
Alright,
here's how it looks on satellite imagery.
An impressive looking image there as it's
sitting over the extremely conducive
environment over the Gulf of Mexico.
We've got the very warm
sea surface temperatures.
We've got a loop current that
I'll talk more about,
so this makes rapid intensification.
All that more likely.
In fact,
it's already happened with this system
just before it made landfall in Cuba.
It intensified from a tropical storm.
To a category one hurricane.
Now the latest stats on this 85 mile an
hour winds sustained near the center.
Hurricane force winds are only
extending out about 20 miles on
the northeast side of the storm,
so a relatively condensed wind field
that's expected to expand as it goes
forward and gains latitude as it heads
towards the southeast coast of Louisiana.
Right now,
it's movement due northwest at 16 mph,
so it's not all that slow,
but it's not all that fast,
and it's still going to
give it plenty of time.
Over that bath water to intensify
pressure has been slowly dropping.
We're down to 984 millibars at the moment.
Here is the latest updated track.
We're going off the 10:00 o'clock advisory.
The only change here really is that
landfall is expected Max winds at 1:30.
That's down from 1:40.
It doesn't really look
like an improvement at all,
because that certainly
can be higher than that,
and I don't think many of us can
distinguish the difference between
1:30 and 1:40 with sustained winds,
especially when you're out in it so.
Impacts will still be the same.
We're still talking inundation with
storm surge 10 to 15 feet and of course
winds that strong will just bring
widespread power outage and downed trees.
But around Sunday, 7 PM,
130 mile per hour,
winds moving inland once it gets
away from its fuel source,
the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico
will start to see it rapidly deteriorate.
Also,
the winds will drop significantly.
The introduction of the
frictional component of this as it
moves on land will slow down those
wind speeds, but nonetheless still.
Almost hurricane force winds as we go
forward as it moves inland into Louisiana.
So you're going to hear the term
rapid intensification quite often
over the next 24 hours as it heads
towards landfall by tomorrow afternoon.
Now, what exactly is it?
Rapid intensification is defined as an
increase in maximum sustained winds,
about 30 knots, which is roughly 34
to 35 mph in 24 hours worth of time.
Now the prospects for this storm doing that,
it seems like it will do more than rapidly.
Intensify, maybe 4050 mile per hour.
Winds increased in 24 hours easily.
Now we are going off the 10:00 o'clock
advisory and just for your knowledge,
the next advisory comes out at
1:00 o'clock in the afternoon.
There are eight throughout the day,
4 intermediate advisories and
four full updates.
The full updates bring us the cone changes,
the forecast track,
and any shifts that are necessary
are released during that time.
So the next full advisory will come
our way at 4:00 o'clock this afternoon
and then another at 10:00 PM.
In between.
We'll see updates on the storms
intensity and its position as it
tracks farther to the north and West.
Alright,
modeling on this has been remarkably.
Consensus the consensus has been
remarkable as what I'm trying to say.
It's been on target with this in the
same area for the last several days,
which is really interesting to see here.
All of the spaghetti plots here and
you can see on either side is the
bounds of the cone of uncertainty.
There all of the models are within
that cone of uncertainty.
On top of that, our global models,
the GFS and the European have really
been locked on to this scenario of
a landfall in southeast Louisiana
for like the last 3-4 days.
And to see both models overlaid
on top of each other like this is
very unusual as well,
so there's high confidence in
this forecast going forward as it
moves to the north and West.
Sure,
there are variables that can alter the track
and we could see a wobble east or West,
but I don't think we're looking at
any considerable track changes as we
go forward in the next 24 hours here.
So let's explain what you're
actually looking at here.
The GFS and the European model.
The Europeans and the red.
The GFS is in the yellow and these lines
are isobars lines of equal pressure.
The tighter they are together,
the tighter the pressure gradient,
meaning the stronger the storm,
the stronger the winds watch
as we go forward here.
Still right into tomorrow
or to this evening 7:00 PM.
Still both models right on top of each
other into early Sunday morning at 1:00 AM.
More of the same.
Now there starts to be a little bit
of discrepancy here as we get to
early Sunday morning at 9:00 AM,
not in terms of landfall location,
but the speed in which that landfall occurs.
The GFS is a little bit faster.
You see it racing ahead of the European.
And it makes landfall,
maybe three or four hours earlier
than what the European is saying here.
Similar intensities, similar locations here.
What looks to be West of New Orleans,
meaning they will be on The Dirty side of
the storm with the strongest winds and
that storm surge moving inland from there.
Driving those winds and driving those
waves much, much higher as we go through
the day tomorrow and after landfall.
Moving inland.
Still a very strong storm as it moves to
the east of Lake Charles near Alexandria,
Baton Rouge area and then
racing north towards Jackson.
And starting to weaken,
but it's going to have a ton of
moisture with it and strong winds,
even well inland.
Now let's diagnose exactly what's
happening with this storm at the moment.
This is infrared satellite imagery
and why we use this particular filter
is it tells us the temperature of the
cloud tops and why that's important.
The colder the cloud tops,
the higher they are reaching into the sky,
the stronger the convective activity is,
and with hurricanes strong hurricanes
you see strong or intense convective
activity and what we see here is the
shades of black and the white showing up
near the center of Ida is indicating strong.
Convective activity,
an indicator that this storm is on
its way to rapidly intensifying.
In fact,
the latest imagery right here shows
that Ida is beginning to open its eye,
and I is developing visible on
the satellite imagery,
and also more worrisome are these
little pockets of white showing up here.
These are what we refer as hot towers.
This is associated with extremely
quickly rising air and is an
indicator that rapid intensification.
Is likely underway and these will
pivot around that storm center here.
And just flare up more and more
convective activity.
So that is not a good signal right there,
even though we've maintained its strength
at 85 for the last 6 to 8 hours.
It is not going to be this week
for the for very long at all.
In fact, it's going to jump in intensity,
likely by that one o'clock advisory.
So we've had aircraft in the system
almost constantly for the last few days.
Air Force Recon,
Hurricane Hunter aircraft,
recent pass found a drop in
pressure here down to 982 millibars
still seeing wind speeds at 75.
But again,
this is was just one marker there
and on the northeast side of that
storm as we get over here,
we'll probably find some stronger
winds in the next pass.
It makes on visible satellite imagery.
We have a sun up.
We can see the storm with
the visible imagery.
You can see the eye starting to
clear out there and we see those
hot towers popping up.
Those high convective activity.
All around that storm center there
and we'll likely see it intensify
as we go forward in the short term,
water vapor imagery more of the same.
You can see that flare up and
what's interesting here on
its far Western most flank.
It's almost like there's a barrier wall
setting up here keeping all of the
dry air away from that storm center,
so that's very interesting
to see flaring up there.
Kind of almost walling it off from
pulling any of that drier in and
dry air getting entrained in that
storm center would be one way
that we could weaken the system,
but that is not looking likely.
Here, so let's talk about factors
that will maximize the intensity
of Ida going forward.
There are lots of them.
Almost every variable is ideal for this
storm to intensify and intensify rapidly,
which is what's been forecast
for the last couple of days.
So we got sea surface
temperatures well into the 80s,
more than enough to support deepening.
Now we need 80 degree water warmer to
facilitate latent heat release and
absorption by the storm as it goes through.
We've got temperatures mid to upper 80s.
Even around 90 degrees as you close
into the southeast Louisiana coastline,
so a lot of warm water.
Not only is it warm on the skin of the ocean,
but it extends down to a depth and
we've got a loop current in place as
well that is continuously replenishing
the warm waters from the Caribbean.
Kind of moving up into the gulf,
so and it's right over the track
of where Ida is heading.
Favorable wind shear and moisture profiles.
Again, dry air is a hindrance to a storm.
We don't have any of that and no
wind shear either. At the moment.
Upper level ridging is in place.
And that's pretty much like
a high powered exhaust fan.
That's going to allow Ida to ventilate very
efficiently and remove its exhaust aloft and.
Just power it further,
so that's not a good thing to have
an alignment as we go forward for
the next 24 hours or so before landfall.
All right,
there's a surface temperatures.
They are in the mid 80s,
pretty much along its entire forecast track,
getting warmer as you get closer to the
coastline there and that is not a good thing.
And then on top of that.
The ocean heat content.
Is extremely high.
The portions of the Western Caribbean
were the highest ocean heat content
in the entire Atlantic Basin,
but we have this loop current.
Here you can see it outlined with
this tongue of warm air, warm air,
warm water building in from the Caribbean,
and that's not just warm water on the
surface, it extends down to a depth.
So why that's important is that when
hurricanes move over the ocean waters,
obviously it's very rough seas,
so there's mixing going on
something called upwelling.
When storms are upwelling.
Ocean water.
They typically pull up cooler
waters from the depths.
When you've got that warm water
extending down to a depth with
high ocean heat content like we're
seeing here and continuously getting
replenished with that loop current,
there's almost a limitless amount of
heat energy available for this storm,
especially along its forecast track.
It doesn't look to be going down at all,
so that's something that's very worrisome,
and why forecasters are saying this
is going to rapidly intensify again,
and there's that upper level feature.
We've got it.
Upper level, high and upper level Ridge,
and that's going to be placed right
on top of idea that will allow for
efficient ventilation of the storm we
have inflow at the surface rapidly rising
air in the center and then it disperses,
divergences aloft and that high
helps that be more efficient and
ventilate better and breathe better.
Wind shear profile too.
You know,
a vertically stacked system
is what a hurricane is.
As I mentioned,
the inflow at the surface outflow aloft
when there's no wind shear in place.
We have that vertical structure.
Any sort of wind shear tilts the system over,
and it disrupts its overall wind flow.
We are not seeing that here
with this particular storm,
there's hardly any wind shear at all
in the entire Gulf of Mexico right now,
so potential limiting factors we're going
to be optimistic here that something
will come along some variable in play.
That will force the storm to not
be as strong and maybe weaken.
Possibilities are very small
of this happening though,
so that's why I said not many wind
shear from the outflow of hurricane.
Nor you may say.
Where is there a Hurricane Nora right
along the Pacific Coast of Mexico?
Not far off in the scheme of
things from where Ida is,
I'm gonna show you that in a
second now an ERC as well could
be something that limits the storm
intensity but very very briefly.
An ERC is an eyewall replacement cycle.
When storms get extremely strong and
intense they develop a well defined
eye and eventually that eye closes
in on itself and collapses in on
itself and that briefly will lead to.
A break in the intensifying process
and maybe even some gradual weakening
briefly and then a larger eye
builds in and replaces it,
and then that leads to a
period of more intensification.
So if we can get that,
I will replacement cycle if one
occurs to happen before landfall,
that could lead to either a plateau
and intensity or a brief weakening
upon impacting land.
We'll see,
though it's really kind of like
splitting hairs and trying to
get that to occur at landfall.
There's really no way to determine
or predict when that would happen.
All right, here's where Nora.
Is right there off the Pacific
Coast of Mexico and when compared
on satellite it looks a little
bit more intense than what's going
on with Ida now with this storm
generally in close proximity to Ida,
the outflow aloft from this storm
could impose some wind shear aloft
on eye that could disrupt its flow.
We would love to see that,
but likely this would only happen if idea was
to track a little bit farther to the West,
which is unlikely at the moment,
and wind shear may not impact it at all,
so that's something we have to watch too.
Now, let's talk about the wins and the
forecast categories in which they arrive.
Going into tonight and tomorrow now we'll
start with Tropical storm force winds.
In this kind of Aqua blue here,
the deeper blue is tropical storm force
winds of at least 60 mph and then we
get into even category three winds.
Here running that NE quadrant of
that storm track by Sunday morning.
Portions of southeastern Louisiana
already starting to see the winds
pick up the tropical storm force,
and it only gets stronger from there as the
core builds on shore or the strongest winds.
The eyewall moves on shore near Houma,
New Orleans,
getting in on the category winds,
potentially, Franklin.
Baton Rouge, Mandeville,
Fayette, yeah.
All of these areas is going to
see some very strong winds,
but notice the wind field does start to
collapse quickly as it moves over land.
That frictional component slowing things
down and shrinking that wind field.
But we could still have some tropical
storm winds all the way up into
South southeastern Arkansas and
central and northern Mississippi.
So the storm structure could stay intact.
The probability of at least seeing
hurricane force winds 75 mph,
greater up to 8090%.
Almost a certainty along where
that eye passes.
You're going to find the strongest
winds in the eye wall just
outside of the center there.
Alright,
and of course with the winds comes
storm surge and some of these numbers
are quite scary that are coming out
from the National Hurricane Center.
This area very very susceptible.
A lot of swamp marshlands here.
And we can get values for storm
surge up and over 11 feet.
That's the onshore winds.
Continuously pushing the water up and
over the low lying areas inundating spots.
This white area here near New
Orleans down near Golden Meadow,
we have more over near Morgan City.
Those are the hurricane protection plans
that were imposed after Hurricane Katrina.
So the levee system and that
should do its job to protect the
city itself from flooding.
But we'll see it put to the test here
with a track like that and the onshore
winds and winds coming in from the.
From the east there near Slidell
and the lengthy train could pile
up that water and a really give
those levies a run for their money.
We'll see how things play out on
top of the storm surge flooding
freshwater flooding too.
A lot of rainfall to tropical system
upwards of a half foot to a foot
of rainfall here in a relatively
short amount of time within a
24 hour period. So that will lead to
its own flooding issues with storm
drainage flooding, poor drainage,
flooding rivers and streams getting swollen,
so that's going to be its own issue there,
especially as it builds farther inland
and rains itself out as it moves
along the spine of the Appalachians.
So that flood potential is moderate to
probably even high tomorrow in portions
of Louisiana up through Mississippi.
After that storm makes landfall,
and hey, on top of that it is close
to the peak of the season and we've
got tropical depression number 10.
Notice where it is not going to
impact any land, and it's not going
to be around for very long.
It will likely strengthen today to
Tropical Storm Julian the 10th named
storm of the season but not last long.
It's gonna move north and
eventually deteriorate,
so we won't have to worry about it.
Thankfully all right until next
time until the next update.
We'll try to do one at every update
from the National Hurricane Center
to give you any latest changes in
that forecast track or intensity,
but you can find me on social media
on Twitter, Instagram and on Facebook.
We'll see you next time.