This is Rummy’s Corner.
Coming up on September 17th, on the relatively new DAZN pay per view, Canelo Alvarez and
Gennady Golovkin will finally meet for the 3rd time.
It will have been more than 4 years since they last met on September 15th of 2018, when
Canlo was awarded a somewhat controversial 12 round majority decision.
A lot has changed since then.
HBO has since left the boxing business altogether, and Canelo and Golovkin appeared to be on
diverging paths.
Golovkin has had just 4 fights since then.
In June 2019 Gennady scored a 4th round stoppage against Steve Rolls.
In October of that year, Golovkin won a close unanimous decision against Derevyanchenko
to win the vacant IBF middleweight strap.
In December 2020, Gennady won by 7th round stoppage against Kamil Szeremeta.
Then after being out of action for all of 2021, Golovkin returned in April when he defeated
Ryota Murata in a unification bout to add the WBA super duper middleweight strap.
Canelo has had 8 fights since they last met.
In December 2018, Canelo stopped Rocky Fielding in 3 rounds at super middleweight to win the
regular WBA.
In May 2019, Canelo defended his unified WBC/WBA super duper middleweight crown in a unification
bout against IBF middleweight champ Daniel Jacobs, a bout Canelo won by close and competitive
unanimous decision.
In November 2019 Canelo jumped all the way up to 175 when he beat Sergey Kovalev by 11th
round stoppage to win the WBO light heavyweight belt.
In December 2020, it was back down to 168 where he won a lopsided unanimous decision
against Callum Smith to win the WBA super duper and the WBC at super middle.
February 2021 Canelo defended those belts with a 3rd round stoppage against Avni Yildirim.
In May 2021 he scored an 8th round stoppage in a unification bout against Billy Joe Saunders
to add the WBO belt.
And then last November, Canelo became the undisputed super middleweight world champion
when he won by 11th round stoppage against Caleb Plant.
A few months back in May, it was back up to 175 where Canelo challenged WBA super duper
light heavyweight champion Dmitry Bivol, and Canelo lost by 12 round unanimous decision.
This was only the 2nd official loss in his career, and his first loss since he was beaten
by the great Floyd Mayweather Jr 9 years earlier.
But in the eyes of many if not most observers, myself included, Canelo was very fortunate
to escape his first bout against Gennady with a draw.
That first fight between Canelo and Golovkin happened back on September 16th, 2017.
Going into that one, Gennady was the undefeated unified IBF/WBC/WBA super duper middleweight
champion, and Canelo had a rightful claim as the lineal middleweight world champion.
Canelo jumped out to an early lead where his superior speed and reflexes gave him the edge.
Canelo was calm, measured, defensively sound, and countering effectively.
On the other hand Golovkin had an uncharacteristically slow start.
It almost seemed as if Triple G may have been a little overwhelmed by the magnitude of the
event, and he was also having some difficulty coping with Canelo’s speed.
Golovkin started finding a better groove in the middle rounds, where he was jabbing better
and working off the jab more effectively.
Canelo was continuing to box well and he was still landing some nice counters.
But even though Canelo was proving to be a slippery target with a sneaky offense, Golovkin
had seized command of the momentum during the middle portions of the fight, and he was
landing the better shots.
Once Gennady established a better rhythm, Canelo was exerting a lot of energy with his
footwork.
Triple G was effective at cutting off the ring, and he was generally landing better
more often than not with good consistency.
This trend continued throughout the final stretch of the fight.
Each boxer was having moments, and the action was fairly competitive throughout the bout.
But at the end of the day, Golovkin appeared to be the clear winner in the eyes of most.
The official judges saw it differently, however.
Dave Moretti had it 115-113 for Golovkin, Don Trella had it a draw at 114 apiece, and
Adelaide Byrd inexplicably scored the bout 118-110 in favor of Canelo, which was in no
way reflective of the action that transpired inside the ring.
So officially, the first bout between Canelo and Golovkin was ruled a draw, but most observers
felt Golovkin deserved to win.
The rematch happened almost exactly a year to the day later.
Golovkin had been stripped by the IBF, so it was his unified WBC/WBA super duper, against
Canelo’s valid lineal claim.
The first round began as a tactical affair at midrange.
Gennady was working behind his jab and getting off to a faster start than he did last time,
while Canelo was looking to stay at midrange and hold his ground.
They both looked very focused, and they were both throwing short crisp punches, and these
are trends that would continue throughout the contest.
In a lot of ways, the flow and momentum of the rematch felt eerily similar to their first
encounter.
Canelo tended to be doing the better work over the first half of the fight, whereas
Golovkin tended to be doing the better work over the later half.
But these were all very competitive rounds, many of which constituted an absolute judging
nightmare.
There were simply an awful lot of close rounds that were tricky to score.
But despite the similar flow, the dynamics were much different this time around.
This was a much better, far more entertaining encounter than we saw last year.
This one just had a heightened sense of intensity, where both boxers were battling it out, and
giving as well as they took.
At the end of the day, Canelo was awarded a majority decision victory, with Glenn Feldman
scoring it 114 apiece, while judges Dave Moretti and Steve Weisfeld both scored it 115 to 113
in favor of Canelo.
The big difference between this fight and the first fight stems from a huge strategic
gamble by Canelo - a gamble that paid big dividends for middleweight supremacy.
In the first fight Canelo was looking to counter and get off first when he could.
and that was true here again in the rematch.
Only this time, Canelo was determined to stay at midrange while employing these types of
tactics, and in the first fight, Canelo was far more apt back out of range with lots of
movement.
This led to Canelo frequently finding himself on the ropes, and this is where Gennady often
does his best work.
Canelo did his best not stay pinned in any one position for too long in the first fight,
but by constantly fighting off the back foot with lots of movement, Canelo was using up
a lot of energy, and he was also giving Golovkin the forward moving momentum that he generally
thrives on.
Canelo was one again looking to counter and to get off first whenever he could in the
rematch.
But this time around, Canelo was determined to keep the fight at mid-range.
By keeping things at mid range, Canelo still held a tactical advantage, but by holding
his ground, he conserved more energy while STILL maintaining the necessary execution
of solid countering, and getting off first whenever he could.
Canelo still had some lulls in activity, but by keeping in range, he was able to wisely
pick and choose his spots, while preventing Golovkin from establishing his trademark forward
aggression.
Gennady Golovkin is 40 years old.
Gennady is no spring chicken, and his skills have eroded at least a little bit since they
last met 4 years ago.
Gennady is also a career middleweight, so this will be his first bout at 168, and he
will be facing the only undisputed super middleweight world champion in the relatively short history
of the weight class.
This is a feat Canelo accomplished in a span of less than 11 months, where he defeated
3 undefeated champions to earn the undisputed crown.
For the aging Golovkin this is a very daunting task on paper, especially since in more recent
years, most people assumed Canelo would win a 3rd fight against the aging Gennady, especially
since Canelo seemed to be getting better and hitting his prime stride, where Golovkin seemed
to be in decline.
On the other hand, Canelo is coming off his first loss in a very long time, and that in
itself makes this trilogy fight inherently more intriguing.
Golovkin might be making his super middleweight debut, but even though he has long seemed
perfectly suited for the weight class, at his age perhaps not needing to drain down
quite as much can actually be something that works in his favor.
Then with Canelo jumping around so many divisions with such great frequency, sooner or later
this type of thing is apt to catch up with him, and perhaps that time is now.
But the most important thing Gennady has working to his benefit is the fact that his style
has a proven track record of matching up well against Canelo.
“Styles make fights” might sometimes feel like an overused boxing cliche, but the fact
remains there is often profound truth to be found in that saying.
I cannot help but be reminded of the rivalry between Manny Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez.
Their first two bouts were extremely competitive, with their first match ending in a draw, and
Pacquiao winning the rematch by razor close split decision.
By the time they had their 3rd fight, Marquez was viewed as an old boxer, boxing way north
of his best weight where he had already proven ineffective.
And on the other hand, Pacquiao was viewed as a powerhouse force for the ages, in the
midst of an incredible run that saw him beat an awful lot of great boxers from 140 to 147.
But at the end of the 3rd fight, Pacquiao wound up escaping with a majority decision
in a fight many if not most believed Marquez deserved to win.
Then their 4th fight was an absolute explosion of fireworks, that ultimately saw Marquez
put an exclamation point on their rivalry in most dramatic fashion.
It’s exactly the same type of situation here.
Gennady is the old fighter, fighting above his best weight class, and going up against
a man many believed he deserved to win against twice, but it was so long ago, both on diverging
paths, where the younger boxer was expected to win, despite the fact the younger boxer
never decisively beat the old man in two previous attempts.
That fact alone leads me to believe we are in for a helluva fight!
And I am extremely fired-up.
This 3rd fight is going to be for the undisputed super middleweight world championship, where
all 4 of Canelo’s world titles will be on the line.
With their heated and controversial history, and the high stakes in play, I have no doubt
whatsoever that we are going to see two determined warriors ready for combat on fight night.
So who will win the 3rd bout between Canelo Alvarez and Gennady Golovkin?
I suspect the general approach from Canelo will be similar to what he did in the rematch,
not the first fight.
Canelo has kind of evolved his style somewhat beginning with that 2nd Golovkin fight, so
I’m expecting that exact same type of approach.
Gennady is always going to try and box his way to favorable angles where he can unload
with his power.
So having a good idea of the game plan for each guy, it boils down to execution on fight
night.
Golovkin does have some similarities with Bivol in terms of style, with a nice jab,
a good understanding of range, and very good overall skills and ring smarts.
The one area where Golovkin is clearly inferior, however, is on the defensive end.
Triple G is simply not as defensively sound as Bivol.
Golovkin has never been a defensive wizard, and he’s easier to connect on than Bivol.
Driving this point home further, Golovkin was getting hit an awful lot in his last fight
against Murata.
At times Golovkin was looking old and slow, and he almost gave the impression of a fighter
who no longer has the gas tank to pull the trigger when he otherwise may have done so
just a few short years back.
But to his credit, Golovkin displayed his trademark heart and durability.
Gennady ultimately grinded down his opponent with a blend of power and technique in a vintage
methodical performance.
Canelo was still throwing hard shots against Bivol, albeit most of these punches were landing
on the arms and the shoulders when they did land.
Triple G’s leaky defense means that a lot of those power shots from Canelo won’t be
landing on shoulders.
There is a reasonable expectation here that a lot of these punches will find the mark
and nail the target.
Gennady has always had an outstanding chin, but at his age, it is difficult to believe
that he is as durable as some of these bigger guys Canelo has been facing at 168 and 175.
For me, all signs point to a Canelo victory.
Indeed, a Canelo late round stoppage even feels like a reasonable expectation logically
speaking, But at the end of the day, I still can’t kick the uncanny comparisons between
Pacquiao and Marquez.
Canelo SHOULD be able to beat Gennady decisively this time around, in theory, but the same
exact type of logic applied in the situation with Marquez and Pacquiao.
I think that same dynamic is at play here.
Styles do indeed make fights.
Like I said, with this particular clash of styles and the history between the two, this
is something I truly believe inherently makes this 3rd bout between Canelo and Golovkin
a potential classic in the making.
I do think it’s going to be competitive, and I think it’s going to be entertaining.
I’m fully expecting another super close and competitive contest where Canelo is once
again awarded a decision, and that there is once again some controversy where many observers
believe Gennady gets screwed on the cards.
So for my official prediction, I’m taking Canelo Alvarez by a close and competitive
12 round decision.
But what the hell do I know?
I ain’t exactly Quasimodo over here.
But whatever happens, I am extremely fired-up for this one, and may the best man win on
that night.
Best of luck to both Canelo and Golovkin.
So who do you think will win?
Please share your thoughts in the comment section.
Thank you very much for watching everyone, I hope you enjoyed, and have a wonderful night.
This is Rummy’s Corner.
You know, Quasimodo predicted all of this.