- Morning, Trainiacs.
Daniela Ryf versus Lucy Charles, (exploding)
class of the titans.
Is Lucy Charles gonna be the next Daniela Ryf?
Can Daniela Ryf hold off the surging Lucy Charles?
We're gonna talk about all that.
(energetic electronic music)
So since Lucy Charles stormed up
to second place on the podium
at the Hawaii Ironman World Championships in 2017,
a lotta people have been speculating
that she would be the next athlete to unseat Daniela Ryf
in the full Ironman and half Ironman distance.
Now, this past week where she again placed second
on the podium in behind Daniela Ryf
at the Half Ironman World Championships
in Port Elizabeth, South Africa,
a lotta people have been asking me
is Lucy Charles and when is Lucy Charles
going to unseat Daniela Ryf?
Now, with her being so young,
with Daniela Ryf having a tough year in 2017,
I think that that topic was a lot more contentious
and uncertain at the end of 2017.
However, with Daniela Ryf being so dominant in 2018
and Lucy Charles getting stronger over the course of 2018,
I think that this is probably one of the most
uncertain answers that I'm going to be able to give
for any heads up match up that's out there
in triathlon today, but we are going to try.
So let's analyze point for point, swim, bike, run
and some of the intangibles,
how Lucy Charles and Daniela Ryf stack up.
Starting with the swim, obviously Lucy Charles,
being a former Olympic hopeful for Great Britain,
missing out on going to the Olympics,
I think, by just one spot,
and then moving into open water racing,
she is probably the best swimmer in triathlon period.
And we're talking like for men or women.
Now, she might not be as fast as men,
but relative to her gender and the times
that are being put out,
there is nobody even close really
to challenging Lucy Charles
besides maybe Lauren Brandon.
Lauren's really good too.
But when it comes to Lucy Charles versus Daniela Ryf,
Lucy Charles is going to come out of the water
ahead of her every single time.
However, what's happening there
is because Lucy's such a strong swimmer,
in a lotta cases, she is going to be working on the swim
entirely on her own
unless she can pair up with a Lauren Brandon,
with a Lauren Stelyle, somebody like that
who has a really good swim pedigree,
she's gonna be out there potentially tiring herself out
and coming out somewhere around two
to three minutes ahead of Daniela Ryf.
Daniela Ryf comes from an ITU sports background
where she had to be an amazing swimmer,
so she is an amazing swimmer
coming out in the front pack,
and she has been smart enough to basically just sit in
to the front pack and making sure
that she gets out in that front pack,
able to attack on the bike,
but because she sat in the front pack,
not on at the front of it, she's kinda been pulled along,
and I think that potentially
she might be a little bit fresher coming onto the bike
than Lucy Charles.
Not positive about that though.
So let's assume that in just about every single race
Lucy Charles is getting out two to three minutes ahead
of Daniela Ryf in a full Ironman,
and Daniela Ryf is gonna have to work
to catch up on the bike.
Now, Daniela Ryf is the best female cyclist
in long distance racing,
maybe one of the best female cyclists ever
in long distance racing,
but there's a really interesting dynamic
that Lucy Charles, getting out so far ahead of the pack,
she's working entirely on her own to hold off
a charging Daniela Ryf that can use a little bit
of the group dynamics, even being,
I think it's 11 or 13 meters in behind anyone
who's in front of her.
That'll still save anywhere
between about two and four watts
as she's going through the field
to catch up to Lucy.
She can use a little bit of that pack dynamics
to get up to Lucy while Lucy is just out front
peddling on her own.
And we saw that in 2017 in the last 40 kilometers
of the bike ride in Kona
that Daniela Ryf essentially time trialed and boom,
broke Lucy Charles, riding away from her,
leaving her several minutes behind coming into T2.
However, last weekend
in the Half Ironman World Championships,
instead of breaking Lucy Charles,
Lucy was able to ride on Daniela's wheel
the entire length of the bike,
and I think this goes to show how Lucy Charles' youth
and really inexperience relative to Daniela Ryf
is a benefit to her.
She only took up triathlon four years ago.
So just every single year she's going to get stronger
and stronger on the bike,
and what we saw in 2017 is that she didn't have the stuff
to stay on Daniela's wheel.
In 2018 at the half Ironman distance, she did.
So let's assume that coming into T2,
these two ladies might just be side by side.
And then it's gonna come down to the run.
Historically and currently, Daniela Ryf
has been a better runner that Lucy Charles.
We saw that in Kona last year.
We saw that this year in Port Elizabeth at the half.
Daniela is around a three hour full marathoner
and around a 1:15, 1:17 half marathoner.
Lucy Charles has been around a 3:05 to 3:10 full marathoner
and more like a 1:20 half marathoner.
Can Daniela Ryf get quicker?
Potentially, but I think the more interesting fact in this
is that I think Lucy Charles can get quicker,
and we can look at some of her times
for the past couple years to see the trajectory
that she's on.
In Challenge Samorin for 2017 and 2018,
her respective times were 1:25 and 1:21,
a four minute improvement.
Ironman Lanzarote in 2016 versus 2017,
a 3:27 versus a 3:18, a nine minute improvement,
and then at the South African Championships,
albeit it's a different course,
this year she did a 3:05 full marathon.
And then at South Africa at World's,
she did a 1:20 half marathon.
Now, granted again, different course than Challenge Samorin,
but it's the fastest half marathon that she's done.
It seems like every time Lucy Charles is racing
she's getting faster and faster on the run.
And this is pretty remarkable
because swimmers, historically, have always had a tough time
adapting to that run.
Maybe it's the vertical nature of it.
Maybe it's the weight bearing nature of it,
but if you look at the running strides
between Daniela Ryf and Lucy Charles,
Daniela Ryf has some inefficiencies.
Her feet are pointed out just a little bit
at the back of her running stride.
She's got a pretty big movement on her left, left elbow?
I think it's coming from her elbow
and it comes across her body.
Whereas, you look at Lucy Charles' running stride,
it's classic, it's long, it's smooth,
and I think that with that big engine
that she's got from swimming that she's developing
in cycling, it's only a matter of time
until she develops some callousing in the legs
and is able to start putting down
some really fast times in running.
Does that mean that she is going to be able
to beat Daniela Ryf, and when is that gonna happen?
I think that's when we have to start looking at some
of the intangibles.
Let's start with age.
Daniela Ryf is only 31 years old,
so as long as she can stay healthy,
she potentially has seven to 10 years
of really good long distance racing in her.
Her endurance is going to be improving a lot,
but at that point, once you're in your 30s,
you're not necessarily building up speed
and strength anymore.
Lucy Charles, however, is 24 years old right now.
She's able to build endurance.
She's able to build speed in both cases,
and because she's so young in the sport,
she is constantly just putting more and more miles
into her legs on the bike,
which is already proving to be very beneficial,
and more miles in her legs on the run,
which, hopefully, she can keep progressing.
So she's still on a very strong upward trajectory,
whereas, I think Daniela Ryf is kind of in a holding pattern
at the moment.
It's a damned good holding pattern she's in,
unbelievable, but she's fighting Father Time.
I'm fighting Father Time, and he's winning.
Injury-wise, we did see Daniela Ryf have some back problems
in early 2017.
Conversely, Lucy Charles had a very serious stress fracture
at the start of her pro triathlon career.
So can either one of them be sidelined by injury?
Yes, absolutely.
Daniela Ryf, with being a little bit older,
might be fighting it a little bit more,
whereas Lucy Charles might be fighting
building running volume while having a history
of a stress fracture.
It's a bit of a headwind there.
Now, here is the thing that I think is really interesting
that Lucy Charles said when we did the podcast with her.
By the way, subscribe to the Triathlon Taren podcast,
wherever you get the podcasts.
It is the most highly ranked triathlon podcast
in the world on iTunes,
just saying largely because we have some fantastic guests
like Lucy Charles coming out.
Lucy Charles said that something that she's got
in her mind is potentially going down
to the shorter distance events in ITU
where she has the swim skills to come out out front.
Biking is less of a concern in ITU,
but getting into a situation
where she has to get fast in the swim,
and then she said coming back into long distance racing
and bringing that speed into long distance racing,
because she's still so young,
that's something that she can spend a couple years doing
and becoming one of the best long course athletes
ever in the history of long course racing.
Whereas, Daniela has already done the ITU game
and brought it into full Ironman distance racing,
and that's why she's so amazing right now.
But Daniela Ryf, like I say, I think is in a bit
of a holding pattern, and I think, as long
as she stays healthy, is probably going to be the athlete
to beat until she decides to hang 'em up,
but Lucy Charles is going to be nipping at her heels,
and the second that Daniela Ryf decides to retire,
has an injury, gets an illness,
I think Lucy Charles is going to be the top pick
to unseat Daniela Ryf
as the best long course female triathlete out there.
So how about that for an un-answer?
If you aren't already subscribed,
hit the subscribe button below
because with Kona coming up over the next couple of months,
we're gonna have a lot of these head-to-head match ups
and it's gonna be, what's it gonna be?
I dunno, I didn't really have an end to that sentence.
It's gonna be good.
Kona's always good.
Thank you to Lucy Charles for doing the podcast.
Thank you to Daniela Ryf for being so awesome
and giving us inspiration to see you ladies just
(exploding) blow each other's brains out in Port Elizabeth.
And see ya tomorrow.
Later, Trainiacs.